The Battle for Bronze - Ice Dance

dorispulaski said:

BlackPack, I absolutely agree that the skaters were placed in the right places at all 3 events, by and large, which is a good thing.

But in the current system, decisions are actually made about whether skaters have the minimum TES for worlds based on these competitions.

In the SD at CoC, only 2 teams made the qualifying score:

1 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS 65.70 31.15 34.55 8.71 8.39 8.75 8.71 8.61 0.00 #8
2 Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT FRA 63.60 28.77 34.83 8.57 8.57 8.79 8.89 8.71 0.00 #7
3 Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES USA 56.77 26.36 30.41 7.57 7.39 7.64 7.82 7.57 0.00 #6
4 Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON USA 52.92 26.20 26.72 6.82 6.43 6.75 6.82 6.57 0.00 #4
5 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES FRA 50.20 24.00 27.20 6.75 6.61 6.75 7.11 6.75 1.00 #5
6 Yiyi ZHANG / Nan WU CHN 41.79 20.28 21.51 5.50 5.18 5.50 5.43 5.29 0.00 #1
7 Xiaoyang YU / Chen WANG CHN 41.24 19.78 22.46 5.64 5.61 5.32 6.00 5.50 1.00 #3

The current cut has been dropped from 29 to 28, but even with that change, P&B only just got a qualifying score (of course, they already had one from Worlds last year). B&S also qualified. The other 5 teams failed to make the qualifying score.

At SC, four teams made the qualifying scores

1 Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR CAN 73.15 35.34 37.81 9.33 9.46 9.42 9.50 9.54 0.00 #8
2 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 70.35 35.91 34.44 8.54 8.50 8.58 8.67 8.71 0.00 #7
3 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE USA 60.92 32.50 29.42 7.29 7.17 7.33 7.42 7.50 1.00 #4
4 Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Ilia TKACHENKO RUS 59.79 31.17 29.62 7.50 7.21 7.46 7.46 7.38 1.00 #5
5 Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI GER 55.91 26.58 29.33 7.29 7.13 7.42 7.42 7.38 0.00 #6
6 Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN RUS 55.63 27.66 27.97 7.17 6.96 7.00 6.88 6.96 0.00 #3
7 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM CAN 53.74 26.17 27.57 6.92 6.75 7.00 6.96 6.83 0.00 #1
8 Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI ITA 52.03 25.92 28.11 6.96 6.88 7.17 7.17 6.96 2.00 #2

At Skate America, 5 teams made the qualifying score
1 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE USA 75.70 37.43 38.27 9.50 9.36 9.64 9.57 9.71 0.00 #8
2 Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE ITA 69.88 36.50 33.38 8.25 8.04 8.43 8.39 8.54 0.00 #7
3 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 61.26 30.30 30.96 7.89 7.64 7.71 7.82 7.64 0.00 #6
4 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE USA 60.71 30.79 29.92 7.54 7.29 7.54 7.46 7.54 0.00 #3
5 Julia ZLOBINA / Alexei SITNIKOV AZE 54.53 26.43 28.10 7.14 6.82 7.07 7.14 6.96 0.00 #5
6 Cathy REED / Chris REED JPN 54.28 28.85 25.43 6.39 6.11 6.36 6.50 6.39 0.00 #1
7 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES FRA 54.10 26.36 27.74 6.96 6.64 6.93 7.14 6.96 0.00 #4
8 Isabella TOBIAS / Deividas STAGNIUNAS LTU 53.17 25.85 27.32 6.79 6.54 6.93 6.96 6.89 0.00 #2




If you look at the average and standard deviations of the TES scores at the events, CoC is significantly lower, even when you take out the Chinese skaters, who are significantly weaker than any of the teams at either SC or SA.

TES	SC	SA	CoC	w/o Chinese
	35.34	37.43	31.15	31.15
	35.91	36.50	28.77	28.77
	32.50	30.30	26.36	26.36
	31.17	30.79	26.20	26.20
	26.58	26.43	24.00	24.00
	27.66	28.85	20.28
	26.17	26.36	19.78
	25.92	25.85
Average	30.16	30.31	25.22	27.30
Std Dev	4.13	4.50	4.19

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BlackPack said:

Are you a statistician? Thank you so much. The most impressive part is that I actually understood the stats because of the clarity, and I am utterly hopeless with math. The judges in CoC were in a bad mood from not liking the hotel/food or something. I wonder if A&P would qualify :think:

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semosk8tfan said:

Thanks for the analysis Doris. I have come to the conclusion that with all the pouring over stats that the IJS has turned skating into baseball!!

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