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Thread: The Battle for Bronze - Ice Dance

  1. #91
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    The only hope I&K have at the bronze in Sochi is if the Russian fed. dumps B&S as their #1 and starts to back I&K instead. No way the Russian #2 team is winning a medal at the Games. However I doubt that will happen. B&S as World bronze medalists will probably continue getting support as the #1 which IMO is probably a mistake for this year atleast. B&S are just not good enough this year to get a medal so if they are supported as the #1 there will definitely be no Russians on the Sochi podium.

    Yes they are probably winning this event but winning here by beating an old P&B (who IMO are no factor ever again) would indicate nothing. You will see them lose on home ice to W&P in a few weeks barring huge improvements or some major errors by W&P.

    The problem with I&K is they have a history of inconsistency, mistakes, technical problems in big events, which is also why I think the Russian fed. will be hesistant to back them unless they really show something in their upcoming events.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    The only hope I&K have at the bronze in Sochi is if the Russian fed. dumps B&S as their #1 and starts to back I&K instead. No way the Russian #2 team is winning a medal at the Games. However I doubt that will happen. B&S as World bronze medalists will probably continue getting support as the #1 which IMO is probably a mistake for this year atleast. B&S are just not good enough this year to get a medal so if they are supported as the #1 there will definitely be no Russians on the Sochi podium.

    Yes they are probably winning this event but winning here by beating an old P&B (who IMO are no factor ever again) would indicate nothing. You will see them lose on home ice to W&P in a few weeks barring huge improvements or some major errors by W&P.

    The problem with I&K is they have a history of inconsistency, mistakes, technical problems in big events, which is also why I think the Russian fed. will be hesistant to back them unless they really show something in their upcoming events.
    agreed, but that can happen, W&P did not qualify for the GPF but placed 5th at Worlds
    I agree P&B and B&S have fallen into the bronze world medal curse and probably wont podium in Sochi
    it will be between C&L or W&P

    though you will get a clearer picture of the couples by 2014 Europeans
    I&K had he highest FD score 100+ last Europeans even as Russian No.2

  3. #93
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    I really wanted I&K to win Europeans last year. They were so close. Their Worlds showing, even finishing below the Shibutanis was a nightmarish result. I was so dissapointed with their performances and finish there. I hope to see them back in atleast the top 5 or 6 this year.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I really wanted I&K to win Europeans last year. They were so close. Their Worlds showing, even finishing below the Shibutanis was a nightmarish result. I was so dissapointed with their performances and finish there. I hope to see them back in atleast the top 5 or 6 this year.
    well they can still win Europeans this year C&L was their closest rival last year

  5. #95
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    It does look like the revolving door of the bronze medal curse is real

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPack View Post
    It does look like the revolving door of the bronze medal curse is real
    Or you can look at last quad where Tessa and Scott got the bronze medal and then won the olympics the year after

  7. #97
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    Actually, the curse seemed to be on the World Champion in the last quad.

    2006/2007: Denkova / Staviski. Career ended later that year due to Staviski's drunk driver case.
    2008: Delobel / Schoenfelder. Delobel gets pregnant, ends up 6th at the Olympics.
    2009: Domnina / Shabalin. Injuries had them only in bronze medal position by the Olympics.

    As for the bronze medalists during that quad:

    2007: Belbin / Agosto - Dropped to 4th in 2008, won silver in 4th at Olympics
    2008: Khokhlova / Novitski - Dropped 6th in 2009, then 9th at the Olympics, WD from 2010 Worlds
    2009: Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir - Won everything in 2009-2010 except for GPF.

  8. #98
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    Maybe Tessa & Scott sang the Red Sox song "Tessie" prior to Vancouver to remove the dreaded Bronze curse, just like Red Sox fans attacked the dreaded Curse of the Bambino

    Tessie, sung by The Dropkick Murphys:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6EIN3EeE78
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 11-01-2013 at 03:39 PM.

  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Actually, the curse seemed to be on the World Champion in the last quad.

    2006/2007: Denkova / Staviski. Career ended later that year due to Staviski's drunk driver case.
    2008: Delobel / Schoenfelder. Delobel gets pregnant, ends up 6th at the Olympics.
    2009: Domnina / Shabalin. Injuries had them only in bronze medal position by the Olympics.

    As for the bronze medalists during that quad:

    2007: Belbin / Agosto - Dropped to 4th in 2008, won silver in 4th at Olympics
    2008: Khokhlova / Novitski - Dropped 6th in 2009, then 9th at the Olympics, WD from 2010 Worlds
    2009: Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir - Won everything in 2009-2010 except for GPF.
    Actually combining the two it looks like the curse is on both:
    2006/2007: Denkova / Staviski. Career ended later that year due to Staviski's drunk driver case.
    2008: Delobel / Schoenfelder. Delobel gets pregnant, ends up 6th at the Olympics.
    2009: Domnina / Shabalin. Injuries had them only in bronze medal position by the Olympics.
    2010: Virtue / Moir. Injured, missed most of next season, lost their World title.
    2011: Davis / White. Lost their World title next year.
    2012: Virtue / Moir. Lost their World title on home ice next year.
    2013: Davis / White. ? just as V&M in 2010 went against the bronze norm, I expect D&W will go against the gold norm and win the OGM though.

    2007: Belbin / Agosto - Dropped to 4th in 2008, 4th at Olympics, never won elusive World title.
    2008: Khokhlova / Novitski - Dropped 6th in 2009, then 9th at the Olympics, WD from 2010 Worlds.
    2009: Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir - Won everything in 2009-2010 except for GPF.
    2010: Faiella / Scali - Came something like 8th at Europeans, then retired without even competing at Worlds.
    2011: Shibutanis - Nothing needs to be explained here.
    2012: Pechalat / Bourzat- dropped to 6th next year.
    2013: Bobrova / Soloviev - will likely follow recent patterns.


    V&M in 2009 to 2010 and maybe D&W in 2013 to 2014 are the only exceptions. Silver or off the podium the previous year is the place to be.

  10. #100
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    2010
    Gold- Virtue/Moir (2009 Worlds bronze medalist; 6th in 2007)
    Silver - Davis/White (4th at 2009 Worlds; 7th in 2007)
    Bronze- Domnina / Shabalin (2009 World Champion; 5th in 2007)

    2006
    Gold - Navka/Kostomarov (2004/2005 World Champion; 4th in 2003)
    Silver - Belbin/Agosto (2005 Silver medalist; 7th in 2003)
    Bronze - Grushina/Goncharov (2005 Bronze medalist; 5th in 2003)

    2002
    Gold - Anissina/Peizerat (2001 Silver medalist; 2nd in 1999)
    Silver - Lobacheva/Averbukh (2001 Bronze medalist; 4th in 1999)
    Bronze - Fusar-Poli/Margaglio (2001 World champion; 5th in 1999)

    1998-
    Gold - Grishuk/Platov (1994-1997 World champion)
    Silver - Krylova/Ovsyannikov (1996-1997 Silver medalist; 5th in 1995)
    Bronze - Anissina/Peizerat (5th in 1997, 6th in 1995).

    Correlation does not always = causation. However, it seems that basically, you're better off off the podium at the beginning of the quad and building your way up.

    However, the stats show that the bronze medalist hit rate on the podium is 75 percent in recent years, with the exception being the 1997 medalists, Bourne/Kraatz, who were bronze medalists during the entire quad, so not getting on the podium in 1998 obviously was very disappointing.

  11. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    However, the stats show that the bronze medalist hit rate on the podium is 75 percent in recent years
    And after this years Olympics it will surely be down to 60%, and if you want to go back to 1994 down to 50%. Hardly indicative of a pattern.

  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    And after this years Olympics it will surely be down to 60%, and if you want to go back to 1994 down to 50%. Hardly indicative of a pattern.
    That's why I put that caveat of correlation =/= causation.

    That said, 1994 was sort of a strange year with Torvill and Dean coming back after 10 years away from competition along with the fact that 1994 came just 2 years after the prior Olympics, which is why I focused only to 1998.

    But for the record, Maya Usova / Alexander Zhulin were bronze medalists in 1991 and went on to win bronze in 1992

    So since the USSR breakup, 2/3 of the bronze medalists in a pre-Olympic Worlds went on to win bronze at the Olympics. That's not terrible odds.

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    That's why I put that caveat of correlation =/= causation.

    That said, 1994 was sort of a strange year with Torvill and Dean coming back after 10 years away from competition along with the fact that 1994 came just 2 years after the prior Olympics, which is why I focused only to 1998.
    Well the 1993 World bronze medalists finished 6th in Lillehammer, 6th at Europeans, and then split up after she injured herself at Worlds, so T&D as a return made no difference to them.

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Actually combining the two it looks like the curse is on both:
    2006/2007: Denkova / Staviski. Career ended later that year due to Staviski's drunk driver case.
    2008: Delobel / Schoenfelder. Delobel gets pregnant, ends up 6th at the Olympics.
    2009: Domnina / Shabalin. Injuries had them only in bronze medal position by the Olympics.
    2010: Virtue / Moir. Injured, missed most of next season, lost their World title.
    2011: Davis / White. Lost their World title next year.
    2012: Virtue / Moir. Lost their World title on home ice next year.
    2013: Davis / White. ? just as V&M in 2010 went against the bronze norm, I expect D&W will go against the gold norm and win the OGM though.

    2007: Belbin / Agosto - Dropped to 4th in 2008, 4th at Olympics, never won elusive World title.
    2008: Khokhlova / Novitski - Dropped 6th in 2009, then 9th at the Olympics, WD from 2010 Worlds.
    2009: Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir - Won everything in 2009-2010 except for GPF.
    2010: Faiella / Scali - Came something like 8th at Europeans, then retired without even competing at Worlds.
    2011: Shibutanis - Nothing needs to be explained here.
    2012: Pechalat / Bourzat- dropped to 6th next year.
    2013: Bobrova / Soloviev - will likely follow recent patterns.



    V&M in 2009 to 2010 and maybe D&W in 2013 to 2014 are the only exceptions. Silver or off the podium the previous year is the place to be.
    4 years straight of Bronze medalists practically falling off the face of the earth.

  15. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Well the 1993 World bronze medalists finished 6th in Lillehammer, 6th at Europeans, and then split up after she injured herself at Worlds, so T&D as a return made no difference to them.
    Perhaps, but I'm talking about T/D's impact to the Ice Dance field that year, not just to one team. We haven't had a professional team (and of T/D's caliber) returning to the amateur ranks since then, so that's something to keep in mind when determining probabilities.

    As I said, even with that factor, 2/3 isn't bad odds.

    ETA: Fun little exercise.
    So among 4th place finishers in the years leading up to 1992 to 2010 Olympics, only 1/3 of them (two couples) went on to medal the following year: Grishuk/Platov in 1991 (silver in 1992; gold in 1994/1998) and Davis/White in 2009 (silver in 2010, ??? in 2014).

    Again, I wouldn't take too much stock in correlation here, but it's sort of interesting to see.

    ETA2: Odds look good for silver medalists too:

    5/6 or 83 percent of silver medalists in a Pre-Olympic Worlds from 1991 to 2009 went on to medal the following year. The sole exception was in 2009, when Belbin and Agosto finished 4th the following year.

    Even better, the silver medalists in that time period have an 83 percent hit rate to get silver or gold and a 50 percent hit rate at winning it all.

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