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Thread: The Battle for Bronze - Ice Dance

  1. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Perhaps, but I'm talking about T/D's impact to the Ice Dance field that year, not just to one team. We haven't had a professional team (and of T/D's caliber) returning to the amateur ranks since then, so that's something to keep in mind when determining probabilities.

    As I said, even with that factor, 2/3 isn't bad odds.

    ETA: Fun little exercise.
    So among 4th place finishers in the years leading up to 1992 to 2010 Olympics, only 1/3 of them (two couples) went on to medal the following year: Grishuk/Platov in 1991 (silver in 1992; gold in 1994/1998) and Davis/White in 2009 (silver in 2010, ??? in 2014).

    Again, I wouldn't take too much stock in correlation here, but it's sort of interesting to see.

    ETA2: Odds look good for silver medalists too:

    5/6 or 83 percent of silver medalists in a Pre-Olympic Worlds from 1991 to 2009 went on to medal the following year. The sole exception was in 2009, when Belbin and Agosto finished 4th the following year.

    Even better, the silver medalists in that time period have an 83 percent hit rate to get silver or gold and a 50 percent hit rate at winning it all.
    In the past quad, it's only been D&W and V&M getting the gold/silver. 2 teams fighting for gold/silver in a prolonged period of time has never been seen in ice dancing history really. One team winning everything straight ended with G&P and K&O, and it's been musical chairs ever since. The closest was with DenStas vs N&K and D&L but only briefly.

  2. #107
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    Denkova & Stayviski were only Navka & Kostomarov's archrival for one season of N&K's dominance, and N&K pretty easily won all those meetings (deserved or not). Then Belbin & Agosto became Navka & Kostomarov's archrivals for 2 seasons and N&K comfortably won all 4 meetings the 2 teams had those 2 seasons. So I would say that was a period of one sided rivalries on top.

    Anissina & Peizerat didnt really have 1 main rivals from 1999-2002. Their #1 rivals switched around from Krylova & Ovsiannikov, then Fusar Poli & Margalio, and lastly Lobacheva & Averbuhk, and they ended up winning half the team, and losing by 1 judge the other half. The other top teams of that quad- Bourne & Kraatz, Drobiazko & Vanagas as well could all move anywhere from 1st to 5th, while A&P were always 1st or 2nd, but often not 1st.

  3. #108
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    B&S COC FD - Four Seasons http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxyBhEr5nmI

    Cliched prototypical Russian program from the costuming to the music. Consistent criticism of B&S is that like many of their Russian predecessors, they are able to skate in great speed with more simple moves and transitions into dramatic lifts. Bobrova's posture leaves a lot to be desired and her awkward free leg ruins their potentially long and clean lines. Like last year's program, the first half was powerful, but the second half's effectiveness dwindled.

    P&B beat them well with the Little Prince routine.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyW68hIN2fQ

    P&B aren't really good storytellers. It reminded me a bit of Rakhamo and Kokko's street urchin routine, whose story you can really understand. Stanick Jeanette successfully conveyed the Little Prince. The British Eurosport guys praised them to the sky, but I don't get it... yet. Fabien fans will once again be disappointed he couldn't find a decent pair of pants.

  4. #109
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    The scarf is good, but the Little Prince is not a patch-pants ragamuffin
    http://fc08.deviantart.net/fs70/i/20...lulii13omg.jpg

  5. #110
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    Some stats:

    Overall score
    Weaver/Poje: 175.23 (2nd, Skate Canada)
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 168.49 (2nd, Skate America)
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 165.68 (1st, Cup of China)
    -----------
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 163.42 (2nd, Cup of China)
    ****

    Short Dance overall
    Weaver/Poje: 70.35
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 69.88
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 65.70
    --------------
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 63.60

    Short Dance TES
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 36.50
    Weaver/Poje: 35.91
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 31.15
    ----------------
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 28.77

    Base Value
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 32.00
    Weaver/Poje: 30.50
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 27.50
    -------------
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 25.50

    GOE
    Weaver/Poje: 5.41
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 4.50
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 3.65
    -----------
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 3.27

    Finnstep
    Weaver/Poje: 15.50
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 15.28
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 12.00
    ------------
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 10.35

    Everything else
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 21.22
    Weaver/Poje: 20.41
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 19.15
    ---------------
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 18.42

    Short Dance PCS
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 34.83
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 34.55
    Weaver Poje: 34.44
    ----------------
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 33.38

    ****

    Free Dance overall
    Weaver/Poje: 104.88
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 102.08
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 98.61
    ---------------
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 97.72

    Free Dance TES
    Weaver/Poje: 51.67
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 49.03
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 47.00
    ---------------
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 45.58

    Base value
    Weaver/Poje: 40.20
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 40.20
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 38.20
    ---------------
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 37.70

    GOE
    Weaver/Poje: 11.48
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 9.30
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 8.83
    -------------
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 7.38

    Free Dance PCS
    Weaver/Poje: 53.21
    Pechlat/Bourzat: 53.05
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 52.14
    -------------
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 51.61

    Using a 15/10/5 scoring for the top three in each of these categories:

    Overall:
    Weaver/Poje: 15
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 10
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 5

    Short Dance:
    Weaver/Poje: 80
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 75
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 30
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 15

    Free Dance:
    Weaver/Poje: 75
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 45
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 20
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 10

    Total:
    Weaver/Poje: 170
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 100
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 70
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 40

    ****

    I know, different panels, not a perfect comparison, but it gives you an idea where everything stands. W/P look great in both; Cappellini/Lanotte have a great SD, but an OK FD. Pechalat/Bourzat have a great FD, but a not great SD. And as for Bobrova/Soloviev need work in both.

  6. #111
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    W/P were at home, unlike all the other teams. You might wanna take that into consideration too.

    C/L and P/B's issues can be resolved, they just need more practice. B/S's problems are unfixable unless she works real hard on her posture/lines and overall skating skills, which is not something you can do overnight. Plus their programs are really meh and it's not just a case of execution. I would say out of all these teams B/S really look the weakest right now. Bronze medal curse, anyone?

  7. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Some stats:

    Overall score
    Weaver/Poje: 175.23 (2nd, Skate Canada)
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 168.49 (2nd, Skate America)
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 165.68 (1st, Cup of China)
    -----------
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 163.42 (2nd, Cup of China)
    ****

    Short Dance overall
    Weaver/Poje: 70.35
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 69.88
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 65.70
    --------------
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 63.60

    Short Dance TES
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 36.50
    Weaver/Poje: 35.91
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 31.15
    ----------------
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 28.77

    Base Value
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 32.00
    Weaver/Poje: 30.50
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 27.50
    -------------
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 25.50

    GOE
    Weaver/Poje: 5.41
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 4.50
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 3.65
    -----------
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 3.27

    Finnstep
    Weaver/Poje: 15.50
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 15.28
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 12.00
    ------------
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 10.35

    Everything else
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 21.22
    Weaver/Poje: 20.41
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 19.15
    ---------------
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 18.42

    Short Dance PCS
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 34.83
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 34.55
    Weaver Poje: 34.44
    ----------------
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 33.38

    ****

    Free Dance overall
    Weaver/Poje: 104.88
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 102.08
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 98.61
    ---------------
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 97.72

    Free Dance TES
    Weaver/Poje: 51.67
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 49.03
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 47.00
    ---------------
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 45.58

    Base value
    Weaver/Poje: 40.20
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 40.20
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 38.20
    ---------------
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 37.70

    GOE
    Weaver/Poje: 11.48
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 9.30
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 8.83
    -------------
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 7.38

    Free Dance PCS
    Weaver/Poje: 53.21
    Pechlat/Bourzat: 53.05
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 52.14
    -------------
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 51.61

    Using a 15/10/5 scoring for the top three in each of these categories:

    Overall:
    Weaver/Poje: 15
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 10
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 5

    Short Dance:
    Weaver/Poje: 80
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 75
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 30
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 15

    Free Dance:
    Weaver/Poje: 75
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 45
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 20
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 10

    Total:
    Weaver/Poje: 170
    Cappellini/Lanotte: 100
    Pechalat/Bourzat: 70
    Bobrova/Soloviev: 40

    ****

    I know, different panels, not a perfect comparison, but it gives you an idea where everything stands. W/P look great in both; Cappellini/Lanotte have a great SD, but an OK FD. Pechalat/Bourzat have a great FD, but a not great SD. And as for Bobrova/Soloviev need work in both.
    Thank you very much for putting the stats together! It's eye-opening.

    Quote Originally Posted by SimplyLex View Post
    W/P were at home, unlike all the other teams. You might wanna take that into consideration too.

    C/L and P/B's issues can be resolved, they just need more practice. B/S's problems are unfixable unless she works real hard on her posture/lines and overall skating skills, which is not something you can do overnight. Plus their programs are really meh and it's not just a case of execution. I would say out of all these teams B/S really look the weakest right now. Bronze medal curse, anyone?
    I actually thought that Bobrova's posture and line actually worsened this season. I know it's counter-intuitive, as you'd think improvements are cumulative. I didn't think her posture and line were glaringly unsightly before; I thought they were quite polished with the Man with the Harmonica. This Four Seasons program is as bad as the Faust one.

    According to all the stats and analyses posted, it's better to have never won a bronze... so yes, the Bronze Curse is very real. Twice is a coincidence, thrice is suspicious, fourth is undeniable.

    We still need to take I&K, Shibs, Chock & Bates, A&P (), et al into account.


    Shibs - SD 61.26, 154.47.

    Home advantage aggrandizes the scores, yes, but not that much. Skaters do better when the crowd is behind them.

  8. #113
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    One thing that does need to be taken into account is that the CoC tech panel was very, very strict calling the Finnstep. The Skate Canada panel was very easy, and the Skate America panel was almost as easy as Skate Canada. This kind of variance between panels happens every year, as tech panel members get used to calling the key points for a new pattern dance.

    Ranking by the FD is more indicative of the relative strength of the competitors at this point in the season.

  9. #114
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    O'Brien/Merriman.

    Obviously!

  10. #115
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    So, in other words VM and WP were marked to easy. Do you think they should be closerto BS and PB as COC judges were strict. Do you believe DW marks were right, lol.

  11. #116
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    No. Just because an easy panel judges you, it doesn't mean they got your particular score too high, just that on average, they missed things.

    Skate Canada

    http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._SD_Scores.pdf

    Skate America

    http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._SD_Scores.pdf

    Cup of China

    http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._SD_Scores.pdf

    What I am saying, is that If the Shibs and B&S and C&B and P&B had skated at Skate Canada, I doubt that all their pattern dance scores would have been as low.

  12. #117
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    I am not sure SC was as easy as SA. SA seemed to be more generous in pcs as well but you can't compare unless the teams were at the same event really

  13. #118
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    I am talking about the tech panel at SC and SA being easy on the Finnstep pattern dance, compared to CoC, not about the judges at the same events. Check the protocols. The tech panel were giving out level 4's in the pattern dance left and right.

    I don't feel capable of assessing whether PCS was too high or too low at a given event unless there are huge, huge discrepancies, especially since so many of the things PCS measures are more difficult to assess on the TV or computer than they are live, and I wasn't at the events in question.

    I can say that I think the PCS for Bobrova & Soloviev at Ice Star Minsk was really high, or that every team's PCS at their at their Nationals is too high, but internationally PCS seems to be too consistent, if anything. The judges still don't seem to use the components properly, by grading them separately, rather than as a block, at all ISU events. But that's a rant for a different time.
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 11-04-2013 at 02:24 AM.

  14. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    I can say that I think the PCS for Bobrova & Soloviev at Ice Star Minsk was really high, or that every team's PCS at their at their Nationals is too high, but internationally PCS seems to be too consistent, if anything. The judges still don't seem to use the components properly, by grading them separately, rather than as a block, at all ISU events. But that's a rant for a different time.
    Do rant... this is very interesting. I'm still stuck in the 6.0 system like the people who still refer to the French currency as Francs instead of Euros. I'd like to gain more clarity on the judging. Ultimately, I think the teams were placed correctly, so that's the most important thing, but I still think the judging can be more precise.

  15. #120
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    BlackPack, I absolutely agree that the skaters were placed in the right places at all 3 events, by and large, which is a good thing.

    But in the current system, decisions are actually made about whether skaters have the minimum TES for worlds based on these competitions.

    In the SD at CoC, only 2 teams made the qualifying score:

    1 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS 65.70 31.15 34.55 8.71 8.39 8.75 8.71 8.61 0.00 #8
    2 Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT FRA 63.60 28.77 34.83 8.57 8.57 8.79 8.89 8.71 0.00 #7
    3 Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES USA 56.77 26.36 30.41 7.57 7.39 7.64 7.82 7.57 0.00 #6
    4 Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON USA 52.92 26.20 26.72 6.82 6.43 6.75 6.82 6.57 0.00 #4
    5 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES FRA 50.20 24.00 27.20 6.75 6.61 6.75 7.11 6.75 1.00 #5
    6 Yiyi ZHANG / Nan WU CHN 41.79 20.28 21.51 5.50 5.18 5.50 5.43 5.29 0.00 #1
    7 Xiaoyang YU / Chen WANG CHN 41.24 19.78 22.46 5.64 5.61 5.32 6.00 5.50 1.00 #3

    The current cut has been dropped from 29 to 28, but even with that change, P&B only just got a qualifying score (of course, they already had one from Worlds last year). B&S also qualified. The other 5 teams failed to make the qualifying score.

    At SC, four teams made the qualifying scores

    1 Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR CAN 73.15 35.34 37.81 9.33 9.46 9.42 9.50 9.54 0.00 #8
    2 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 70.35 35.91 34.44 8.54 8.50 8.58 8.67 8.71 0.00 #7
    3 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE USA 60.92 32.50 29.42 7.29 7.17 7.33 7.42 7.50 1.00 #4
    4 Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Ilia TKACHENKO RUS 59.79 31.17 29.62 7.50 7.21 7.46 7.46 7.38 1.00 #5
    5 Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI GER 55.91 26.58 29.33 7.29 7.13 7.42 7.42 7.38 0.00 #6
    6 Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN RUS 55.63 27.66 27.97 7.17 6.96 7.00 6.88 6.96 0.00 #3
    7 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM CAN 53.74 26.17 27.57 6.92 6.75 7.00 6.96 6.83 0.00 #1
    8 Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI ITA 52.03 25.92 28.11 6.96 6.88 7.17 7.17 6.96 2.00 #2

    At Skate America, 5 teams made the qualifying score
    1 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE USA 75.70 37.43 38.27 9.50 9.36 9.64 9.57 9.71 0.00 #8
    2 Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE ITA 69.88 36.50 33.38 8.25 8.04 8.43 8.39 8.54 0.00 #7
    3 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 61.26 30.30 30.96 7.89 7.64 7.71 7.82 7.64 0.00 #6
    4 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE USA 60.71 30.79 29.92 7.54 7.29 7.54 7.46 7.54 0.00 #3
    5 Julia ZLOBINA / Alexei SITNIKOV AZE 54.53 26.43 28.10 7.14 6.82 7.07 7.14 6.96 0.00 #5
    6 Cathy REED / Chris REED JPN 54.28 28.85 25.43 6.39 6.11 6.36 6.50 6.39 0.00 #1
    7 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES FRA 54.10 26.36 27.74 6.96 6.64 6.93 7.14 6.96 0.00 #4
    8 Isabella TOBIAS / Deividas STAGNIUNAS LTU 53.17 25.85 27.32 6.79 6.54 6.93 6.96 6.89 0.00 #2




    If you look at the average and standard deviations of the TES scores at the events, CoC is significantly lower, even when you take out the Chinese skaters, who are significantly weaker than any of the teams at either SC or SA.

    TES SC SA CoC w/o Chinese
    35.34 37.43 31.15 31.15
    35.91 36.50 28.77 28.77
    32.50 30.30 26.36 26.36
    31.17 30.79 26.20 26.20
    26.58 26.43 24.00 24.00
    27.66 28.85 20.28
    26.17 26.36 19.78
    25.92 25.85
    Average 30.16 30.31 25.22 27.30
    Std Dev 4.13 4.50 4.19

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