The battle for the second and third US ice dance spots.
Detroit is out on a skating war and the three dance base camps are out against eachother, craving icy blood, political favour but most importantly, the last Olympic Dance Spots.
Camp Canton, led by Marina Zoueva-- Maia Shibutani and Alex Shibutani
Camp Novi, led by Igor Shpilband-- Madison Chock and Evan Bates
Camp DSC, led by Anjelika Krylova and Pasquale Camerlengo-- Madison Hubbel and Zachary Donohue.
Meryl Davis and Charlie White are going to take that first spot for sure but with two spots remaining and three teams hungry for victory, who will make the cut.
THERE WILL BE HEARTBREAK IN BOSTON!
Early predictions show that Camp Novi is in trouble!
In other news, to the north, who is going to take the third canadian spot. The candidates are:
- Alexandra Paul and Mitchell Islam --DSC
- Piper Gilles and Paul Poirier-- Toronto
- Kharis Ralph and Asher Hill-- Toronto
C/B have some serious work to do if they want a trip to Sochi.
I hope Shibutanis and H/D, I love theirs programs this season, and the Shibs are so adorable
I think the second spot is taken and belongs to C/B. I don't like it, since if it were up to me they'd be the ones left off, but this is how the wind is blowing.
Shibs and H/D are in reality the ones fighting for a spot. I love them both but more and more find myself hoping H/D get it.
This one will be a nailbiter for sure.
I really hope the Shibutani's make it to the Olympics...they've been skating together their whole careers, it would be really sad if they didn't make it.
I thought C&B were a lock for that 2nd spot but their extremely low score and most of all very low PCS for their first outing at Cup of China is interesting. I am hedging my bets on them a bit more at this point, although I still think they are probably the favorites for the 2nd spot.
I would be extremely sad if the charming and passionate Hubbel & Donohue miss it, so if Chock & Bates are going to make it, I really hope it it the incredibly boring Shibutanis who miss out.
Piper Gilles doesnt have Canadian citizenship yet so she isnt even eligible for the Olympics. I also dont think she will get it. The government isnt going to push forward someones citizenship just so someone who was 18th at Worlds will have a chance (not even close to certain even had she had citizenship) to maybe skate at the Olympics.
Originally Posted by GF2445
Orford and Williams are WAY stronger contenders than Ralph & Hill at this exact moment as well.
I would say that 3rd spot will be between Paul & Islam and Orford & Williams, and Paul & Islam will be the ones to get it.
Shibutanis: 154.47 (Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue:153.20 (Skate Canada)
Hubbell/Donohue: 152.98 (Skate America)
Chock/Bates: 150.53 (Cup of China)
Hubbell/Donohue: 147.11 (Nebelhorn)
Chock/Bates: 143.06 (Finlandia)
Overall SD scores
Shibutanis: 61.26 (Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 60.92 (Skate Canada)
Hubbell/Donohue: 60.71 (Skate America)
Chock/Bates: 56.77 (Cup of China)
Hubbell/Donohue: 56.53 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Chock/Bates: 53.34 (Finlandia Trophy)
SD Base value
Hubbell/Donohue: 29.50 (Skate Canada)
Hubbell/Donohue: 28.00 (Skate America)
Shibutanis: 26.50 (Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 26.50 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Chock/Bates: 24.00 (Cup of China)
Chock/Bates: 20.00 (Finlandia Trophy)
Hubbell/Donohue: 13.75 (Level 4/Level 3; Skate Canada)
Hubbell/Donohue: 13.72 (Level 4/Level 3; Skate America)
Chock/Bates: 11.84 (Level 2/Level3; Finlandia Trophy)
Hubbell/Donohue: 11.50 (Level 2/Level 3; Nebelhorn Trophy)
Chock/Bates: 10.79 (Level 4/Level 1; Cup of China)
Shibutanis: 10.72 (Level 2/Level 2; Skate America)
Non-pattern dance elements
Shibutanis: 19.58 (Stw4/NtMiSt3/RoLi4; Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 18.75 (Stw4/SiLi4/NiCiSt3; Skate Canada)
Hubbell/Donohue: 17.07 (STw4/SiLi4/NtCiSt2; Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 16.57 (Stw3/SiLi4/NiCiSt3; Skate America)
Chock/Bates: 15.57 (Stw4/NtDiSt2/RoLi4; Cup of China)
Chock/Bates: 11.57 (STw(zeropoints)/NtDiSt2/RoLi4; Finlandia Trophy)
Shibutanis: 3.80 (Skate America)
Chock/Bates: 3.51 (Finlandia)
Hubbell/Donohue: 3.00 (Skate Canada)
Hubbell/Donohue: 2.79 (Cup of China)
Chock/Bates: 2.36 (Cup of China)
Hubbell/Donohue: 1.57 (Nebelhorn)
Hubbell/Donohue: 32.50 (Skate Canada)
Hubbell/Donohue: 30.70 (Skate America)
Shibutanis: 30.30 (Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 28.07 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Chock/Bates 28.77 (Cup of China)
Chock/Bates: 23.51 (Finlandia Trophy)
Shibutanis: 30.96 (Skate America)
Chock/Bates: 30.83 (Finlandia Trophy)
Chock/Bates: 30.41 (Cup of China)
Hubbell/Donohue: 29.92 (Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 29.42 (Skate Canada)
Hubbell/Donohue: 28.46 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Overall FD scores
Chock/Bates: 93.76 (Cup of China)
Shibutanis: 93.21 (Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 92.28 (Skate Canada)
Hubbell/Donohue: 92.27 (Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 90.68 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Chock/Bates: 89.72 (Finlandia Trophy)
Chock/Bates: 47.43 (Cup of China)
Shibutanis: 47.00 (Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 45.60 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Hubbell/Donohue: 45.33 (Skate Canada)
Hubbell/Donohue: 44.21 (Skate America)
Chock/Bates: 42.16 (Finlandia Trophy)
Chock/Bates: 40.20 (Cup of China)
Shibutanis: 40.20 (Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 38.70 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Hubbell/Donohue: 37.70 (Skate Canada)
Hubbell/Donohue: 37.70 (Skate America)
Chock/Bates: 35.20 (Finlandia Trophy)
Hubbell/Donohue: 7.63 (Skate Canada)
Chock/Bates: 7.23 (Cup of China)
Chock/Bates: 6.96 (Finlandia Trophy)
Hubbell/Donohue: 6.90 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Shibutanis: 6.80 (Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 6.51 (Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 48.06 (Skate America)
Chock/Bates: 47.56 (Finlandia Trophy)
Shibutanis: 47.21 (Skate America)
Hubbell/Donohue: 46.95 (Skate Canada)
Chock/Bates: 45.33 (Cup of China)
Hubbell/Donohue: 44.98 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
I think Chock and Bates are in the strongest position. Their free dance was 100% improved between Finlandia and Cup of China, especially Evan. They seem to be settling in to their music. Short dance needs work.
Hubbell and Donohue are on the bubble. They skated beautifully at Skate America -- could hardly be better -- and still lost the free dance to the Shibs with a fall.
H/D shouldn't have lost the free dance to Shibs, crap judging again. I feel the Shib programs this year are poor vehicles, particularly the FD. They obviously are getting the crumbs of whatever attention Zoueva has left after her two top teams. But they, like C/B, are getting the benefit of some strong politicking. I don't like C/B programs either and they are my least favorite team of the three. H/D seem to get the short end of the stick when it comes to the politicking so I fully expect them to be the ones left out in the cold. However, IMO they are showing the greatest improvements so there still might be hope.
Originally Posted by Mathman
The Shibutanis edged out H/D in the Skate America FD due to TES, which was nearly three points higher. As for the fall, the fall was not on an element so the only deduction was the -1 off the overall score. If they fell during an element, like Chock and Bates did during the twizzles in the SD at Finlandia, it would have been a lot more costly.
But H/D got the higher PCS, which makes perfect sense to me.
The Shibutanis' strength is in its strong skating basics. They have quiet blades, decent musicality and nice lines and posture. And they seem to be hitting the levels early, which is a good thing.
That said, it's too close to call at this point.
2nd Hubbell/Donohue, 3rd Chock/Bates
Is it my imagination, or are the lifts this season way, way, way out there in terms of difficulty, showmanship, and just plain tossing the girl all around your head and shoulders? Ice dance seems more athletic than at any time in the past.
Thanks Mrs. P for your analysis. The individual stats show it is closer than just looking at total scores.
I think H/D were hurt by having their two GP back to back. They had little time to take the feedback and rework their programs. Had their appearances been farther apart I think there would have been a more dramatic increase in scoring for them.
I really want H/D to make the Olympic team. They have the better programs of all 3 teams IMHO yet I fear they will be the ones left at home. C/B have the politics of Igor behind them as well as being former JR champs (even though with different partners). And the Shibs have Marina and a World medal. H/D need to take the next few months and heal Madison's hip and then work to maximize their levels.
I will never be a fan of C/B: her "O" face and the hearts on her skates drive me nuts and I hold a grudge against him because I no longer get to see Emily skate. I also find their height difference distracting. And I truly dislike their programs this year.
As to the Shibs: they are such cute, talented kids I want them to succeed. I like their SD but feel she needs a new outfit, it too closely resembles previous dresses. As someone else mentioned in the SA thread it is like she has the same dress in several colors. Their FD just seems more like an exhibition piece to me and is a disappointment. It won't be a judge pleaser but it will be a crowd favorite.
So in my heart I want the following placements: H/D, Shibs, C/B
I want the reality to be that the best skates at nationals take the slots, not reputation or politics.
Regardless, we are in for a fun ride. It is a great time to be a US Ice Dance fan!!!
I had so much hope for C/B, but it's now a fact that Igor is no great choreographer. Madison Chock is quite beautiful, but somewhat they haven't found a way to channel that. The programs of the past seasons are so generic.