Are Lipnitskaya & Pogorilaya now the favourites to make the Russian Olympic team? | Page 5 | Golden Skate

Are Lipnitskaya & Pogorilaya now the favourites to make the Russian Olympic team?

koatcue

Medalist
Joined
Aug 31, 2011
Country
Russia
I think now that Wagner has triple-triples in her program she would beat any of the Russian girls clean, and Gold given how much the judges love and overscore her (especialy in PCS) would also beat any of the Russian girls clean, assuming she went clean herself. As long as Kostner is doing a triple-triple in the SP (even the easiest) and attempting 7 triples in the long she will also easily beat any Russian going clean if she is even somewhat close to clean.

Whatever Russians are sent to Sochi, they will need help to medal. However Julia is so much more consistent than anyone else I would almost predict her to medal, and it would be a very good shot she would. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva are no more consistent than most of the others, and probably less so, so would unlikely to capatilize on the likely mistakes to occur. Anna has no potential for a really good result in Sochi, but the Russians might look towards the future and feel sending her could be beneficial if nobody besides Julia earns it.
Agree about Gold. She is better. I have high hopes for Julia, but likely not this year ( I mean her winning big competition). And by the way, Pogorilaya reminds me Grace a little when she was in juniors. Her jumps are huuge and clean, except her flip.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
Yes the last international competition I recall them being in together was the 2012 Junior Worlds which Julia won very easily. What is interesting is the protocals of that event show Julia would have easily beaten both Gold and Sotnikova even had they gone clean, and Sotnikova would have still finished 3rd behind Gold in that case as well. So ironically Julia has lost ground in that sense since then (the mythical all clean scenario), while Gold has gained the most.

Julia has never competed at Europeans or Senior Worlds so her losing to Sotnikova in those would be impossible. She has also not yet been in a grand prix together with Sotnikova, but her scores in those have been higher thus far, even last year when she was struggling I believe.
2012 Jr Worlds was ages ago. Julia was the hotshot newcomer on the Junior circuit and Gracie had little reputation at the time so Julia was favored to win plus Gracie was not polished at all. But Seniors is different and Gracie had made huge strides has better speed and skating skills and just looks like a mature skater while Julia still looks and skates a bit like a Junior. Julia has the consistency right now that Gracie lacks but unlike 2012 Jr Worlds Gracie would win now if both are clean.
 

elif

Medalist
Joined
Jan 28, 2010
I really can't see Adelina s skating a clean program. Maybe she can do two flip and other jumps but 3lutz+3loop still there. She underrotates every time, except at russian competitions. :rolleye:
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
I really can't see Adelina s skating a clean program. Maybe she can do two flip and other jumps but 3lutz+3loop still there. She underrotates every time, except at russian competitions. :rolleye:

I think sotnikova was marked < at a Russian test skate when everyone Thought it would be <<.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
2012 Jr Worlds was ages ago. Julia was the hotshot newcomer on the Junior circuit and Gracie had little reputation at the time so Julia was favored to win plus Gracie was not polished at all. But Seniors is different and Gracie had made huge strides has better speed and skating skills and just looks like a mature skater while Julia still looks and skates a bit like a Junior. Julia has the consistency right now that Gracie lacks but unlike 2012 Jr Worlds Gracie would win now if both are clean.

That is what I mean. Despite the deservedly positive enthusiasm about Julia now, Gold has actually gained alot more ground in that particular matchup (despite that due to Julia's consistently clean programs she will probably keep winning most meetings for now).

It is interesting too though that looking at the protocals of that 2012 World Juniors it seems clear Sotnikova would have only been 3rd at that World Junior event behind Lipnitskaia and Gold, even had all 3 skated cleanly; and that surprised me alot to see. Yet Lipnitskaia and Gold have probably improved more than she has since then. So I wouldnt even be sure Sotnikova skating clean would beat either Lipnitskaia or Gold if they also do today, which is a very bad sign for her, considering her consistency is by far the worst of the three also (even if Gold also has problems).
 

Eddie Lee

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 19, 2007
I love Gracie! But let's take a look at the Cup of China gold medalist!!

From the moment Pogorilaya stepped onto the ice for the SP, I thought, "what a perfect look for a skater!" and when she followed up with that LP skate, I asked "where has this skater been hiding?". After this win, I feel sure that--short of Russian figure skating politics and depending upon how she is able to follow up with this quality--we might be rethinking the road to Sochi. I much prefer this preformance to any of those I've seen of the other petite ballerinas albeit an imperfect one. She's a real beauty. Such a shame they are only eligible to have two ladies' at Olympics? It's a real conundrum.....Russia with only two ladies' spots with a passel of capable skaters vying for them.
 

elif

Medalist
Joined
Jan 28, 2010
2012 Jr Worlds was ages ago. Julia was the hotshot newcomer on the Junior circuit and Gracie had little reputation at the time so Julia was favored to win plus Gracie was not polished at all. But Seniors is different and Gracie had made huge strides has better speed and skating skills and just looks like a mature skater while Julia still looks and skates a bit like a Junior. Julia has the consistency right now that Gracie lacks but unlike 2012 Jr Worlds Gracie would win now if both are clean.
That is what I mean. Despite the deservedly positive enthusiasm about Julia now, Gold has actually gained alot more ground in that particular matchup (despite that due to Julia's consistently clean programs she will probably keep winning most meetings for now).
Julia is 15 year old and Gracie is 18 year old. Julia still younger than Gold at 2012 (16 year old then) Last two year Julia grown up a lot. She lost some consistently because of that and injuries. She have a new choreographer this year. Her programs are not all about leg splits anymore. She changed her jumps layout. No longer 3toe+3toe but 3lutz+3toe now. She still managed to win 3 grand prix medal, qualifed to Final last year. Last two year Gold's body not changed that much. But she didn't look that consistent anymore. Especially under pressure she couldn't skate.I can understand why peoples are positive about Julia.
 

thinspread

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 8, 2013
Lipnitskaia, being 15, may still go through some significant change, in physique or in performance maturity. If she can keep her physique in check, IMO her performance quality can get even better toward the end of season. The added experience she will pick up in between would also help, so I think she will be picked.

Pogorilaya, she's obviously a huge talent and I actually think in the next quad she can be more successful than Lipnitskaia, but I just can't picture both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva being left out of the team.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Lipnitskaia, being 15, may still go through some significant change, in physique or in performance maturity. If she can keep her physique in check, IMO her performance quality can get even better toward the end of season. The added experience she will pick up in between would also help, so I think she will be picked.

Pogorilaya, she's obviously a huge talent and I actually think in the next quad she can be more successful than Lipnitskaia, but I just can't picture both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva being left out of the team.

Pogorilaya though has a worst axel technique, care to watch her 2012 ex ?
she grew some of her jumps got bigger but some are more unstable like her axel and flip

Im getting tired of all the Julia will lose her all her jumps, weren't some predicting that since she was 13 ?
werent some even predicting Julia would experience a growth spurt and making Sochi would be a toll order to climb and her chance was very slim. some people are just too wishful and delusional :laugh:

tell you what is the reason:
Yes, she grew !, :sarcasm: is that normal ? yes
she grew in pace and not abrupt that is why she is handling it very well so far
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I just can't picture both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva being left out of the team.

I think this is what will prevent Pogorilaya from making the team. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva have been on the GP circuit for some time and have people in their corner vouching for them. And the Russian fed isn't particularly known for sending who deserves to go to major competitions versus who's in bed with them, so to speak.

I really hope that Sot/Tuk actually earn their spot, instead of denying a cleaner Pogorilaya/Gosviani/whoever a spot.
 

koatcue

Medalist
Joined
Aug 31, 2011
Country
Russia
I think this is what will prevent Pogorilaya from making the team. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva have been on the GP circuit for some time and have people in their corner vouching for them. And the Russian fed isn't particularly known for sending who deserves to go to major competitions versus who's in bed with them, so to speak.

I really hope that Sot/Tuk actually earn their spot, instead of denying a cleaner Pogorilaya/Gosviani/whoever a spot.
+100500
I wish the strongest will get the spot
 

noidont

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 27, 2010
This Gracie hyping trend is ridiculous. Every Russian girl has to be compared to Gracie, not each other. It's like the fact that Gold just lost to Julia a week ago didn't even happen...Consistency matters. I'm not a big fan of Julia's skating, but girl has a ridiculously strong head. Gracie, among other girls like Liza, Adelina et al. are no comparison to Julia on that front.

If we go by record, say average all scores over the entire season before Sochi and rank all the girls, Pogorilaya and Lipnitskaya are mostly likely to get the two spots. But it doesn't work like that. No one knows if Liza and Adelina would get very lucky and skate the best programs of their lives at Russian Nationals. Right now things are not looking good for them. Sending 15-year-olds to the Olympics is actually always the best strategy. They don't crumble all that easily and tend to do their very best, even if they are not in a position to win OGM. I feel that Liza and Adelina have been the oldest in a new generation that they are burning out a bit, which is unfortunate because they are so young still.

Though for my own pleasure, I would love Liza and Nikol to go....
 

hanca

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 23, 2008
This Gracie hyping trend is ridiculous. Every Russian girl has to be compared to Gracie, not each other. It's like the fact that Gold just lost to Julia a week ago didn't even happen...Consistency matters. I'm not a big fan of Julia's skating, but girl has a ridiculously strong head. Gracie, among other girls like Liza, Adelina et al. are no comparison to Julia on that front.

I agree. If Gold was so brilliant, her PB score would be much higher. There is a reason why her PB score is lower than Julia's.
 

blue dog

Trixie Schuba's biggest fan!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 16, 2006
Russia does things differently. It really depends on two things-- top three at nationals (I'm betting Tuk, Julia, and Sotnikova), then the best two finishes at Euros. European judges LOVE Sotnikova...
 

zamboni step

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 14, 2013
If those two go to the Olympics the Russian entries will be quite....dull :rolleye: Sotnikova will be going to Europeans no matter what and, if she performs well there she's on the team. Elizaveta will need to show some real fight if she wants a spot and win Nationals, not likely unless Julia starts to feel nerves like mortals do. Right now it's likely the team will be Julia as Russian number one, and Sotnikova on account of the love international judges have for her. If everyone skates clean though Elizaveta and Adelina are going I'd say.
 

seniorita

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2008
I m not sure it will even work this way, with Euros and Nationals, Rf sent Borodulin to Olympic Games-because Voronov messed up, Borodulin was not even at Euros. Which is kind of irony that they had a spare spot in Vancouver and didnt know who to sent and now only one.
For the ladies, i cant believe I missed somehow Anna until last Russian nationals, while I have been watching all the junior or before junior ladies since Radionova was 9 years old. There has been so many ladies in Russia who were eligible year by year, by the way, what Shelepen, Korobeynikova, Deeva, Byuriokova, Agafanova and Makarova are doing now? I think russian ladies go out of juniors too fast and they burnt out soon enough, while other federations keep their skaters in juniors until 17++..Adelina and Liza are only 17 and you think they skate at Seniors since ever, and now they got out Radionova while they could have waited for age eligible skaters first.
I dont think they would send Anna to Sochi, not much time to get her the reputation needed. My heart hopes Liza gets the second spot who I ve been watching since she went to Mishin, but I think Adelina has the judges love, she has better lines, great edges and speed and more innovative spins. But Liza gives joy when she skates, Adelina makes you anxious.
 
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dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
Ksenia Makarova isn't competing this year at all, due to a hip injury.
She & her parents recently became US citizens
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?40610-Polina-Shelepen-to-compete-for-Israel

Polina Shelepen is attempting to compete for Israel.
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?40610-Polina-Shelepen-to-compete-for-Israel

Polina Korobeynikova had foot injuries, recently withdrew from her sole Grand Prix assignment, the 2013 Cup of China, and was replaced by Nikol Gosviani.

Polina Agafanova has programs choreographed for this year, and I suppose will be trying to qualify for Russian Nationals
LP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8s3ioZUXnk
SP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8s3ioZUXnk

The efforts of all this young ladies to qualify for Russian Nationals are discussed in the Qualifiers thread for Russia.

Here's where they are so far:
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...t-competitions&p=769272&viewfull=1#post769272

Polina Agafanova won the SP at a Russian Cup event in Sochi, but finished 4th overall.
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...t-competitions&p=770218&viewfull=1#post770218

She won the Panin Memorial Cup
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...t-competitions&p=772396&viewfull=1#post772396

As of the beginning of October, there were 10 more slots to be determined

Sofia Biryukova is also competing (she was at Russian Cup in Sochi) She finished 6th.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlWkOA1EzEE
She finished 3rd at Moscow Open

Polina Korebeynikova finished 9th at the same event.

However,
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...t-competitions&p=777928&viewfull=1#post777928

It looks like all are still in the race to qualify, except Deeva, who does not seem to be competing. There are 2 remaining qualifying events, another Panin Memorial involving Leonova is either just over or underway.
 
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pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
If everyone skates clean though Elizaveta and Adelina are going I'd say.

I would be shocked if a clean Elizaveta were to beat a clean Julia right now. Especialy as the Russian fed. will push the skater who has been so consistent for the last few years, especialy this year so far, over someone who isnt consistent and isnt getting the results even if she pops up a perfect competition suddenly out of nowhere. It is not like there is anything that superior about Elizaveta's skating to Julia that overcomes Julia's current building momentum and rep, and Elizaveta has way worse spins and worse programs this year anyway. Julia will score slightly higher on PCS (or more than slightly if her consistency continues at this level and the judges likely dish out some more points as a result), much higher on non jumps elements, their jump layout and GOE on the jumps is about the same.

As for Adelina, for her skating well is not skating cleanly but skating a 80% clean program, and that could easiily lose out to the other two, but in the fantasy all 3 skated cleanly Elizaveta would be odd one out most likely.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
As for Adelina, for her skating well is not skating cleanly but skating a 80% clean program, and that could easiily lose out to the other two, but in the fantasy all 3 skated cleanly Elizaveta would be odd one out most likely.

Agreed.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I think this is what will prevent Pogorilaya from making the team. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva have been on the GP circuit for some time and have people in their corner vouching for them. And the Russian fed isn't particularly known for sending who deserves to go to major competitions versus who's in bed with them, so to speak.

I really hope that Sot/Tuk actually earn their spot, instead of denying a cleaner Pogorilaya/Gosviani/whoever a spot.

If Russia had 3 spots, I think Pogo would have a legitimate shot and Russia could send the 2 consistent, steely 15 year olds along with one "risky" but very talented and well-known "veteran" like Tuk or Sot. But with 2 spots one of Tuk or Sot will almost certainly be on the team. Pogo might get to go to Europeans though, and if she does better than the "veteran" there, who knows.
 
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