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Thread: Are Lipnitskaya & Pogorilaya now the favourites to make the Russian Olympic team?

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    sure Sotnikova can get higher score when she is clean but that hasn't been shown in competition
    "potential" to score higher is not good enough. last time she had close to a clean LP? that was 3 years ago as a junior !
    That's true. Plus with her issues, it's unlikely. So we agree on that: Liza and Julia are currently the ones who will probably make the team, if nothing extraordinary happens at nationals. (with Anna as a dark horse since she has the killer instinct like Julia, and the fierceness and Adelina who has everything on her side minus the mental toughness in order to make it). Any other lady with an outside shot?

  2. #17
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    I would send Lipnitskaja and Tuktamysheva. Lipnitskaya can medal in an individual event, she MUST be on the team(if not, i will be so mad at RusFed). Tuktamysheva on the other hand would be a great part of a team event. Lipnitskaja can do short and then Liza can do a great FS. As for Sotnikova, she can bomb both SP and FS, so it is risky...

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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    rule no.1: never count on headcases
    you cannot just hope and pray someone hits in a competition like Sotnikova

    she is a bigger headcase than Tuk
    That headcase has a GP silver and a SP win. Tuktamysheva couldn't even beat Radionova, make the podium, and was 9th in the Skate America SP, and likely won't make the GPF. At least Sotnikova positions herself well after the SP, whereas Tukt always plays catchup. For Liza, its over before the FS even begins... and that's whi you think is a better choice for Sochi? And how many times has Liza scored this so-called weapon of a 130+ FS?

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    Fantastic GP debut for Pogorilaya. Julia should have her ticket stamped at this point, but Pogo certainly gave reason for Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva to start getting nervous. Although Sotnikova has a better shot still unless Pogo proves consistency.

  5. #20
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    That headcase has a GP silver and a SP win. Tuktamysheva couldn't even beat Radionova, make the podium, and was 9th in the Skate America SP, and likely won't make the GPF. At least Sotnikova positions herself well after the SP, whereas Tukt always plays catchup. For Liza, its over before the FS even begins... and that's whi you think is a better choice for Sochi? And how many times has Liza scored this so-called weapon of a 130+ FS?
    This. I'm sorry. If I had to choose between Liza and Adeina I'd pick Adelina.

    That said, this isn't the first time I'm saying that IF Anna keeps this up, and if neither Liza nor Adelina can pull it together, she is both a contender and in fact should be granted the 2nd spot.

  6. #21
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Anna has medalled at nearly every international event (if not every one-I could have missed some Senior B or other) that she has attended since she was a late addition to last year's Russian junior team.

    Last year:
    3rd Zagreb JGP (Her 2 JGPs were one week apart)
    1st Chemnitz JGP
    3rd JGPF
    3rd World Juniors
    This year:
    1st CoC

    In the midst of all that, she went through her growth spurt and still managed to keep her jumps.

    She has a relatively weak field at TEB, and it's entirely possible she will make the GPF.

    If she makes the GPF, I would not be at all surprised to see her PCS rise, particularly if she doesn't finish dead last there.

    That's been the way PCS has worked in the past.

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    Look at the jump content from kostner and it's mind boggling sotnikova lost to her in the fs! Sotnikova messed up both flips, had no three jump combo because for some bizarre reason the 3 jump combo is after a flip, and didn't Do a 3/3 and had really low levels. She was beyond bad in her fs and was rescued by her sp. Russian nationals will be filled with eligible girls with great content in their fs. Because Adelina just has the worst fs deisgn of any current skater I wouldn't be surprised if she placed third at euros of Russians there. Her best hope involves lizas sp problems and judges/fed not giving pogorilaya the scores. The self inflicted wounds by sotnikova are so disturbing! How can a skater not stop doing Something That costs her over and over and over? She should have won coc easy but her fs had 2 flips! If her coaches won't change That she needs to take charge and when she does a fs do other jumps! Unless she's committed to the two flips and failure herself!

  8. #23
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Yes, almost anything would be better than 2 flips, and particularly hanging the 3 jump combo on one of them

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    I think Anna is third best right now. I have Liza second. I think Liza looks more mature on the ice then Anna. Anna still looks like a junior. But if Liza can't get her SP together she will lose her spot for sure. But the future looks bright for Russia on the ladies side.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    "potential" to score higher is not good enough. last time she had close to a clean LP? that was 3 years ago as a junior !
    You have to take into account scoring potential when selecting a team. If Pogorilaya skates perfect both programs and scores 180 she has 0% chance of a medal. If Tuk or Adelina has even a 1% chance of medal they should be on the team ahead of Anna.

  11. #26
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    Let's face it this was the weakest GP in terms of competition for the Ladies event. Anna would have been off the podium at SC for instance. But it's going to be brutal for those 2 spots for the Russian girls.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    You have to take into account scoring potential when selecting a team. If Pogorilaya skates perfect both programs and scores 180 she has 0% chance of a medal. If Tuk or Adelina has even a 1% chance of medal they should be on the team ahead of Anna.
    I tend to look at it differently. I think the person should go who earns the spot, with a smaller emphasis on national federations demonstrating their acumen in "selecting" a team. Best would be a "self-selection" model where the skaters skate for the prize.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    I tend to look at it differently. I think the person should go who earns the spot, with a smaller emphasis on national federations demonstrating their acumen in "selecting" a team. Best would be a "self-selection" model where the skaters skate for the prize.
    In theory that works, but everywhere the federations do what they want. Agnes's SP score and Ashley's LP score at Nationals last year make it pretty clear that, although they want to give the impression that placements are earned, the USFSA places the top skaters exactly where they want to. Judging panels can use not only PCS but also < and << as needed to prop up or drop down skaters.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    In theory that works, but everywhere the federations do what they want. Agnes's SP score and Ashley's LP score at Nationals last year make it pretty clear that, although they want to give the impression that placements are earned, the USFSA places the top skaters exactly where they want to. Judging panels can use not only PCS but also < and << as needed to prop up or drop down skaters.
    I have always wondered about how the mechanics of that are carried out. Do the federation big-wigs call in the judges and tech specialists beforehand and tell them, "This is how we want it to turn out -- make it happen?" Or are the judges in on it from the beginning? Or is there just a kind of spirit in the air so that the tech specialists subconsciously know when they are supposed to toss out a << and the judges know when to hike up someone's PCS?

    Not saying it doesn't happen. But I would think that the judges and officials would make a point of standing on their own independence and integrity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    That headcase has a GP silver and a SP win. Tuktamysheva couldn't even beat Radionova, make the podium, and was 9th in the Skate America SP, and likely won't make the GPF. At least Sotnikova positions herself well after the SP, whereas Tukt always plays catchup. For Liza, its over before the FS even begins... and that's whi you think is a better choice for Sochi? And how many times has Liza scored this so-called weapon of a 130+ FS?
    Adelina won a silver at COC because the field was unbelievably bad and the worst I have ever seen at a Grand Prix. None of the girls who made the podium at COC would have even won bronze at Skate America or Skate Canada.

    I prefer Elizaveta to Adelina. I think Elizaveta's problems are mental. She has some sort of mental block about the SP, because there is no reason for her to do as poorly as she does, given her fabulous long programs and flawless jump technique. On the other hand, Adelina's problems are due to poor jump technique. Her technique on her flutz, flip and axel is awful. She's never going to be able to get through a long program with her flawed jump technique, whereas Liza has the potential to skate better short programs if she gets over her mental block.

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