Julia is making it. End of.
I actually think the 2nd spot will be one of Pogorilaya or Tuktamysheva. It is far easier to see Tuktamysheva solve her SP problems than Sotnikova to suddenly start skating clean LPs. If you can do clean or almost LPs there is no reason you cant do clean SPs. I dont need to tell anyone which is easier.
Pogorilaya seems on the rise and just keeps getting better. If she proves her consistency to the judges her PCS and GOE will naturally increase, whether they deserve to or not. It is the way of things.
So in short will be surprised if it is Sotnikova to get that 2nd spot.
Pogorilaya has consistently landed most of her jumps at all of her domestic and international competitions last season and this season. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva's performances within that time frame have been hit and miss.
Originally Posted by Blades of Passion
Pogorilaya has also clearly improved her presentation since last season and is now putting a lot of effort into her upper body movement and performance in general in her programs. No, her basics are not very good. Her basic skating is quite heavy and her upper body is rather stiff. But she is getting better, at least.
I don't see the progress with Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva.
When Tuktamysheva is on, she does have this explosive quality and she can sell her programs well but her choreography is very samey, within her comfort zone and her ice coverage is still limited. When she isn't on, there is nothing in the programs themselves, to salvage her performances. I've been waiting for her to mature and progress in the presentation department but the progress has been very limited so far.
Sotnikova just doesn't seem to care at this point. She skates with slightly rounded shoulders, doesn't fully extend her movements and doesn't even pretend to interpret the music. At CoC, she had "Habanera" in the SP. A strong, rhythmic, staccato Spanish piece. If you turned the music off, you should be seeing sharp and aggressive movements, a strong upright posture. She was neither moving and skating in time to the music, nor was the way she moved in character of the piece she has chosen. Her movement was just generic. In the FS she did a lot of stroking from jump to jump with her arms flopping down. Maybe the falls have shaken her confidence but it looked like she has given up on presenting her program to a large extent.
Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva both have incredible potential but their teams haven't been able to fully realise it. It looks like all Mishin cares about is jumps (nothing new here). With Sotnikova I get a feeling that she's heard way too much how amazing she is and both her and her team think that she can get away with not packaging her properly and looking at the marks she is getting, they are probably right.
1) Pogorilaya has been consistent since the start of last season. Sot and Tuk haven't.
2) Pogorilaya is showing improvement on the PCS. Sot and Tuk aren't.
Sotnikova always had the horrible flip problems since she became senior but now Julia and Anna are age eligible and she's doomed to lose to them because she can't rely on the flip disasters not hurting her that much. Of course no one is talking about leonova and sotnikova is probably a long shot now too! Skaters who are younger are Becoming eligible and their careers are going down while julia and Anna are rising. The "wonder babies" aren't babies but age eligible and now Liza Adelina ksneia Alena are all out!
Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy
Skating is art, if you let it be.
Pogorilaya may be showing improvement but she's still far behind so it doesn't really matter. Sotnik and Tukt are both much better skaters and performers when they are on.
Originally Posted by Ziggy
If you look at what Sotnik and Tukt delivered at Europeans and Worlds last season, which were not their best, it's still better than the best Pogorilaya can accomplish right now.