Julia is making it. End of.
I actually think the 2nd spot will be one of Pogorilaya or Tuktamysheva. It is far easier to see Tuktamysheva solve her SP problems than Sotnikova to suddenly start skating clean LPs. If you can do clean or almost LPs there is no reason you cant do clean SPs. I dont need to tell anyone which is easier.
Pogorilaya seems on the rise and just keeps getting better. If she proves her consistency to the judges her PCS and GOE will naturally increase, whether they deserve to or not. It is the way of things.
So in short will be surprised if it is Sotnikova to get that 2nd spot.
Pogorilaya has consistently landed most of her jumps at all of her domestic and international competitions last season and this season. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva's performances within that time frame have been hit and miss.
Originally Posted by Blades of Passion
Pogorilaya has also clearly improved her presentation since last season and is now putting a lot of effort into her upper body movement and performance in general in her programs. No, her basics are not very good. Her basic skating is quite heavy and her upper body is rather stiff. But she is getting better, at least.
I don't see the progress with Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva.
When Tuktamysheva is on, she does have this explosive quality and she can sell her programs well but her choreography is very samey, within her comfort zone and her ice coverage is still limited. When she isn't on, there is nothing in the programs themselves, to salvage her performances. I've been waiting for her to mature and progress in the presentation department but the progress has been very limited so far.
Sotnikova just doesn't seem to care at this point. She skates with slightly rounded shoulders, doesn't fully extend her movements and doesn't even pretend to interpret the music. At CoC, she had "Habanera" in the SP. A strong, rhythmic, staccato Spanish piece. If you turned the music off, you should be seeing sharp and aggressive movements, a strong upright posture. She was neither moving and skating in time to the music, nor was the way she moved in character of the piece she has chosen. Her movement was just generic. In the FS she did a lot of stroking from jump to jump with her arms flopping down. Maybe the falls have shaken her confidence but it looked like she has given up on presenting her program to a large extent.
Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva both have incredible potential but their teams haven't been able to fully realise it. It looks like all Mishin cares about is jumps (nothing new here). With Sotnikova I get a feeling that she's heard way too much how amazing she is and both her and her team think that she can get away with not packaging her properly and looking at the marks she is getting, they are probably right.
1) Pogorilaya has been consistent since the start of last season. Sot and Tuk haven't.
2) Pogorilaya is showing improvement on the PCS. Sot and Tuk aren't.
Sotnikova always had the horrible flip problems since she became senior but now Julia and Anna are age eligible and she's doomed to lose to them because she can't rely on the flip disasters not hurting her that much. Of course no one is talking about leonova and sotnikova is probably a long shot now too! Skaters who are younger are Becoming eligible and their careers are going down while julia and Anna are rising. The "wonder babies" aren't babies but age eligible and now Liza Adelina ksneia Alena are all out!
Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy
Skating is art, if you let it be.
Pogorilaya may be showing improvement but she's still far behind so it doesn't really matter. Sotnik and Tukt are both much better skaters and performers when they are on.
Originally Posted by Ziggy
If you look at what Sotnik and Tukt delivered at Europeans and Worlds last season, which were not their best, it's still better than the best Pogorilaya can accomplish right now.
To be honest we could be talking about Julia and Anna the same way in a year or two as we are talking about Tuk and Adelina now. Puberty has a way of changing everything and both Julia and Anna are still at that age where there bodies will continue to change. The same is true of Radinova and the Russian girls on the JGP. Most of these girls will fall away in the next few years.
Originally Posted by gmyers
This week maybe. The season just has to play out.
It's true once the girls become age eligible they can totally knock out the previous ones! Sure medvedeva and radionova have the potential to knock out Anna and Julia next season or sotnikova or tuktamisheva can come back and knock them all out again!! Then you have Proklova and Sakhanovich! So with this tremendous depth and pipeline the only way Russia may get some continuity is just to create new standards that bias the selection to multiple year senior exclusive skaters. I am not saying Liza and Adelina aren't Talented they just aren't the most talented and when it comes to age eligibles are so behind now! Their best way to Olympics involves major choking by Julia and Anna or radical changes from themselves!
Originally Posted by Jammers
All skaters transitioning from juniors to seniors have to deal with and overcome issues relating to puberty and body changes - Americans, Canadians, Russians, Western Europeans, Asians, Australians - everyone. Some come through it successfully, some don't. I've not seen any statistics that some countries are more adversely affected than any others, but I don't imagine that they are.
Originally Posted by Jammers
Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova are more or less through puberty and have come through it without any issues that are going to hinder their skating ability long term. In fact, their current problems have absolutely nothing to do with puberty and body changes. Tuk has always had a problem with the SP - before, during, and after puberty (i.e. both as a junior and as a senior). The very fact that she produces very good LP's demonstrates that she can perform at the highest level and that she has come through the body changes she has had to address unscathed. Hence, the SP issues are psychosomatic. Ultimately, they can probably be addressed by a sports psychologist, but whether they can be sorted out before the Olympics in time is another matter. As for Sotnikova, she simply cannot cope with pressure at present. Again, the issues are psychosomatic and can probably ultimately be addressed by a sports psychologist. But, again, that will take time and I don't see that her issues can be fully resolved before the Olympics.
I agree with others that Tuks issue with the SP are more capable of being resolved sooner, and that she is in a better position than Sotnikova is of making it on to the Olympic team.
Of course, some athletes never learn how to overcome their temperament problems and pressure always seems to get the better of them. But, I would never say never. I once predicted that Andy Murray would never win a slam, as it was my view that he would always fold at the crucial moments when it mattered most. He lost a whole succession of grand slam finals which seemed to bear this out. But, I'm delighted to say that he ultimately proved his critics wrong. He learnt how to cope with pressure. It took time, but eventually he worked it out. Who's to say that Tuk and Sot won't do so as well, and I hope that they do. Nevertheless, at present, they are both really struggling and are in a race against time to sort out whatever it is that is undermining their self confidence.
Think about it, Pogorilaya scored a 178+ with one of her better Skates
Tuk with a meltdown SP still scored a 176+ and Sotnikova after her FS got 173+
not much difference there, had they landed more jumps not even perfect they will easily go though 180+ mark above Pogorilaya's scoring max potential
unlike Anna who has to rely on all her jumps with her poor PCS !
Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva dont have until the Olympics though. Russian Nationals and Europeans are what will determine which one of Anna, Adelina, or Elizaveta gets to go to the Olympics with Julia. So they only about 2 months to figure out the missing elements you refer to.
I would add in Sotnikova's case her jump technique is actually quite bad in some ways, and that is part of her problems, not just mental. People think just because she can do big jumps, and bigger jumps than Julia or Elizaveta, it means she is this great jumper if her mind was right, but that is so far from the case.
Pogorilaya would surely score ahead of Tuk and Sot if they gave the same GP performances at Russian nationals. Also much as people want to crow about scoring potential I would hope the Russian fed doesn't send an error prone Tuk/Sot because the Olympic judges won't show them the same favouritism as at nationals.
Is Adelina 18-years-old right now? She still has time to re-work her jump technique, and be in prime form by Pyeongchang. If she does, there could be a Cold War scenario between Gracie Gold (USA) and Adelina Sotnikova (USSR) fighting for the gold medal!
I still think that Adelina is the best all-round athlete of the Russian ladies. Becoming the top not only requires technique but stamina as well, and while I love the way Liza jumps, she doesn't look like someone who has the stamina to complete a long program using the surface of the rink properly. Julia as well, I love her flexibility but she will grow sideway pretty soon, and once that happens, I think she's gonna lose her already small jumps.
Julia deserves to be on the olympic team, MORE than Adelina or Liza. She needs to be there. She is definitely a rising star but clearly the Russian Fed does not recognize her potential...
I would like to get to the point where Russia is not ussr to people!!! Ussr is dead it's over!!
Originally Posted by hurrah
What on earth do you base that one. Julia wasnt even eligible for Senior Worlds until this year. I do agree Julia needs to be at the Olympics for Russia and she will. That debate (which doesnt even exist anymore) ended on the first page. The only question at this point is that 2nd spot.
Originally Posted by Peach