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Thread: Are Lipnitskaya & Pogorilaya now the favourites to make the Russian Olympic team?

  1. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by koatcue View Post
    Huh? They were at the same int-l competition? That's news for me) They were together at JW))Where Julia was better than Adelina.
    Sorry, I meant Liza. Too many young Russians and I got confused a bit. I do agree that Julia is better than Adelina. but I do think that Adelina is better than Liza.

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    Quote Originally Posted by koatcue View Post
    Huh? They were at the same int-l competition? That's news for me) They were together at JW))Where Julia was better than Adelina.
    She meant Adelina and Liza.

    I think, like some others have said or at least hinted, Adelina is Russia's number 1 lady if she could ever skate clean. I actually think she is the winner of all international competitions too if she could skate truly clean, with the exception of any competitions that Yuna and Mao are also in. She would be beating everyone but Mao and Yuna, even assuming everyone was clean, if she could skate clean. I think this is why the Rus. Fed. keeps her as its pet- they see the potential and how eager intl. judges are to reward her.

    However, as also said, this is a hypothetical pipe dream at this time, and in fact likely will never come to pass. For now, Julia is Russia's number 1, and Tukt and Adelina are each severely flawed in their own ways and will have to duke it out for number 2 and pray to their lucky stars that Pogo doesn't continue to improve at this rate and/or that they can finally get it together for 2 strong performances in a row and squarely beat her.

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    I changed my mind about her, she gets better. And she is interesting to watch! I like her personality and jumps ( hope she'll go back to high jumps). Adelina has worse technique...I mean Gracie )

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    I think now that Wagner has triple-triples in her program she would beat any of the Russian girls clean, and Gold given how much the judges love and overscore her (especialy in PCS) would also beat any of the Russian girls clean, assuming she went clean herself. As long as Kostner is doing a triple-triple in the SP (even the easiest) and attempting 7 triples in the long she will also easily beat any Russian going clean if she is even somewhat close to clean.

    Whatever Russians are sent to Sochi, they will need help to medal. However Julia is so much more consistent than anyone else I would almost predict her to medal, and it would be a very good shot she would. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva are no more consistent than most of the others, and probably less so, so would unlikely to capatilize on the likely mistakes to occur. Anna has no potential for a really good result in Sochi, but the Russians might look towards the future and feel sending her could be beneficial if nobody besides Julia earns it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    She meant Adelina and Liza.

    I think, like some others have said or at least hinted, Adelina is Russia's number 1 lady if she could ever skate clean. I actually think she is the winner of all international competitions too if she could skate truly clean, with the exception of any competitions that Yuna and Mao are also in. She would be beating everyone but Mao and Yuna, even assuming everyone was clean, if she could skate clean. I think this is why the Rus. Fed. keeps her as its pet- they see the potential and how eager intl. judges are to reward her.

    However, as also said, this is a hypothetical pipe dream at this time, and in fact likely will never come to pass. For now, Julia is Russia's number 1, and Tukt and Adelina are each severely flawed in their own ways and will have to duke it out for number 2 and pray to their lucky stars that Pogo doesn't continue to improve at this rate and/or that they can finally get it together for 2 strong performances in a row and squarely beat her.
    I'm just frustrated and sometimes because of that talk stupid. She has potential but...I think she needs moooore time. So Russia shouldn't push her so hard this year. She has too high expectations to skate clean.

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I think now that Wagner has triple-triples in her program she would beat any of the Russian girls clean, and Gold given how much the judges love and overscore her (especialy in PCS) would also beat any of the Russian girls clean, assuming she went clean herself. As long as Kostner is doing a triple-triple in the SP (even the easiest) and attempting 7 triples in the long she will also easily beat any Russian going clean if she is even somewhat close to clean.

    Whatever Russians are sent to Sochi, they will need help to medal. However Julia is so much more consistent than anyone else I would almost predict her to medal, and it would be a very good shot she would. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva are no more consistent than most of the others, and probably less so, so would unlikely to capatilize on the likely mistakes to occur. Anna has no potential for a really good result in Sochi, but the Russians might look towards the future and feel sending her could be beneficial if nobody besides Julia earns it.
    Agree about Gold. She is better. I have high hopes for Julia, but likely not this year ( I mean her winning big competition). And by the way, Pogorilaya reminds me Grace a little when she was in juniors. Her jumps are huuge and clean, except her flip.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Yes the last international competition I recall them being in together was the 2012 Junior Worlds which Julia won very easily. What is interesting is the protocals of that event show Julia would have easily beaten both Gold and Sotnikova even had they gone clean, and Sotnikova would have still finished 3rd behind Gold in that case as well. So ironically Julia has lost ground in that sense since then (the mythical all clean scenario), while Gold has gained the most.

    Julia has never competed at Europeans or Senior Worlds so her losing to Sotnikova in those would be impossible. She has also not yet been in a grand prix together with Sotnikova, but her scores in those have been higher thus far, even last year when she was struggling I believe.
    2012 Jr Worlds was ages ago. Julia was the hotshot newcomer on the Junior circuit and Gracie had little reputation at the time so Julia was favored to win plus Gracie was not polished at all. But Seniors is different and Gracie had made huge strides has better speed and skating skills and just looks like a mature skater while Julia still looks and skates a bit like a Junior. Julia has the consistency right now that Gracie lacks but unlike 2012 Jr Worlds Gracie would win now if both are clean.

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    I really can't see Adelina s skating a clean program. Maybe she can do two flip and other jumps but 3lutz+3loop still there. She underrotates every time, except at russian competitions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by elif View Post
    I really can't see Adelina s skating a clean program. Maybe she can do two flip and other jumps but 3lutz+3loop still there. She underrotates every time, except at russian competitions.
    I think sotnikova was marked < at a Russian test skate when everyone Thought it would be <<.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    2012 Jr Worlds was ages ago. Julia was the hotshot newcomer on the Junior circuit and Gracie had little reputation at the time so Julia was favored to win plus Gracie was not polished at all. But Seniors is different and Gracie had made huge strides has better speed and skating skills and just looks like a mature skater while Julia still looks and skates a bit like a Junior. Julia has the consistency right now that Gracie lacks but unlike 2012 Jr Worlds Gracie would win now if both are clean.
    That is what I mean. Despite the deservedly positive enthusiasm about Julia now, Gold has actually gained alot more ground in that particular matchup (despite that due to Julia's consistently clean programs she will probably keep winning most meetings for now).

    It is interesting too though that looking at the protocals of that 2012 World Juniors it seems clear Sotnikova would have only been 3rd at that World Junior event behind Lipnitskaia and Gold, even had all 3 skated cleanly; and that surprised me alot to see. Yet Lipnitskaia and Gold have probably improved more than she has since then. So I wouldnt even be sure Sotnikova skating clean would beat either Lipnitskaia or Gold if they also do today, which is a very bad sign for her, considering her consistency is by far the worst of the three also (even if Gold also has problems).

  11. #86
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    I love Gracie! But let's take a look at the Cup of China gold medalist!!

    From the moment Pogorilaya stepped onto the ice for the SP, I thought, "what a perfect look for a skater!" and when she followed up with that LP skate, I asked "where has this skater been hiding?". After this win, I feel sure that--short of Russian figure skating politics and depending upon how she is able to follow up with this quality--we might be rethinking the road to Sochi. I much prefer this preformance to any of those I've seen of the other petite ballerinas albeit an imperfect one. She's a real beauty. Such a shame they are only eligible to have two ladies' at Olympics? It's a real conundrum.....Russia with only two ladies' spots with a passel of capable skaters vying for them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    2012 Jr Worlds was ages ago. Julia was the hotshot newcomer on the Junior circuit and Gracie had little reputation at the time so Julia was favored to win plus Gracie was not polished at all. But Seniors is different and Gracie had made huge strides has better speed and skating skills and just looks like a mature skater while Julia still looks and skates a bit like a Junior. Julia has the consistency right now that Gracie lacks but unlike 2012 Jr Worlds Gracie would win now if both are clean.
    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    That is what I mean. Despite the deservedly positive enthusiasm about Julia now, Gold has actually gained alot more ground in that particular matchup (despite that due to Julia's consistently clean programs she will probably keep winning most meetings for now).
    Julia is 15 year old and Gracie is 18 year old. Julia still younger than Gold at 2012 (16 year old then) Last two year Julia grown up a lot. She lost some consistently because of that and injuries. She have a new choreographer this year. Her programs are not all about leg splits anymore. She changed her jumps layout. No longer 3toe+3toe but 3lutz+3toe now. She still managed to win 3 grand prix medal, qualifed to Final last year. Last two year Gold's body not changed that much. But she didn't look that consistent anymore. Especially under pressure she couldn't skate.I can understand why peoples are positive about Julia.

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    Lipnitskaia, being 15, may still go through some significant change, in physique or in performance maturity. If she can keep her physique in check, IMO her performance quality can get even better toward the end of season. The added experience she will pick up in between would also help, so I think she will be picked.

    Pogorilaya, she's obviously a huge talent and I actually think in the next quad she can be more successful than Lipnitskaia, but I just can't picture both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva being left out of the team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thinspread View Post
    Lipnitskaia, being 15, may still go through some significant change, in physique or in performance maturity. If she can keep her physique in check, IMO her performance quality can get even better toward the end of season. The added experience she will pick up in between would also help, so I think she will be picked.

    Pogorilaya, she's obviously a huge talent and I actually think in the next quad she can be more successful than Lipnitskaia, but I just can't picture both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva being left out of the team.
    Pogorilaya though has a worst axel technique, care to watch her 2012 ex ?
    she grew some of her jumps got bigger but some are more unstable like her axel and flip

    Im getting tired of all the Julia will lose her all her jumps, weren't some predicting that since she was 13 ?
    werent some even predicting Julia would experience a growth spurt and making Sochi would be a toll order to climb and her chance was very slim. some people are just too wishful and delusional

    tell you what is the reason:
    Yes, she grew !, is that normal ? yes
    she grew in pace and not abrupt that is why she is handling it very well so far

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by thinspread View Post
    I just can't picture both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva being left out of the team.
    I think this is what will prevent Pogorilaya from making the team. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva have been on the GP circuit for some time and have people in their corner vouching for them. And the Russian fed isn't particularly known for sending who deserves to go to major competitions versus who's in bed with them, so to speak.

    I really hope that Sot/Tuk actually earn their spot, instead of denying a cleaner Pogorilaya/Gosviani/whoever a spot.

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