I think, like some others have said or at least hinted, Adelina is Russia's number 1 lady if she could ever skate clean. I actually think she is the winner of all international competitions too if she could skate truly clean, with the exception of any competitions that Yuna and Mao are also in. She would be beating everyone but Mao and Yuna, even assuming everyone was clean, if she could skate clean. I think this is why the Rus. Fed. keeps her as its pet- they see the potential and how eager intl. judges are to reward her.
However, as also said, this is a hypothetical pipe dream at this time, and in fact likely will never come to pass. For now, Julia is Russia's number 1, and Tukt and Adelina are each severely flawed in their own ways and will have to duke it out for number 2 and pray to their lucky stars that Pogo doesn't continue to improve at this rate and/or that they can finally get it together for 2 strong performances in a row and squarely beat her.
I changed my mind about her, she gets better. And she is interesting to watch! I like her personality and jumps ( hope she'll go back to high jumps). Adelina has worse technique...I mean Gracie )
I think now that Wagner has triple-triples in her program she would beat any of the Russian girls clean, and Gold given how much the judges love and overscore her (especialy in PCS) would also beat any of the Russian girls clean, assuming she went clean herself. As long as Kostner is doing a triple-triple in the SP (even the easiest) and attempting 7 triples in the long she will also easily beat any Russian going clean if she is even somewhat close to clean.
Whatever Russians are sent to Sochi, they will need help to medal. However Julia is so much more consistent than anyone else I would almost predict her to medal, and it would be a very good shot she would. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva are no more consistent than most of the others, and probably less so, so would unlikely to capatilize on the likely mistakes to occur. Anna has no potential for a really good result in Sochi, but the Russians might look towards the future and feel sending her could be beneficial if nobody besides Julia earns it.
I really can't see Adelina s skating a clean program. Maybe she can do two flip and other jumps but 3lutz+3loop still there. She underrotates every time, except at russian competitions.
It is interesting too though that looking at the protocals of that 2012 World Juniors it seems clear Sotnikova would have only been 3rd at that World Junior event behind Lipnitskaia and Gold, even had all 3 skated cleanly; and that surprised me alot to see. Yet Lipnitskaia and Gold have probably improved more than she has since then. So I wouldnt even be sure Sotnikova skating clean would beat either Lipnitskaia or Gold if they also do today, which is a very bad sign for her, considering her consistency is by far the worst of the three also (even if Gold also has problems).
I love Gracie! But let's take a look at the Cup of China gold medalist!!
From the moment Pogorilaya stepped onto the ice for the SP, I thought, "what a perfect look for a skater!" and when she followed up with that LP skate, I asked "where has this skater been hiding?". After this win, I feel sure that--short of Russian figure skating politics and depending upon how she is able to follow up with this quality--we might be rethinking the road to Sochi. I much prefer this preformance to any of those I've seen of the other petite ballerinas albeit an imperfect one. She's a real beauty. Such a shame they are only eligible to have two ladies' at Olympics? It's a real conundrum.....Russia with only two ladies' spots with a passel of capable skaters vying for them.
Lipnitskaia, being 15, may still go through some significant change, in physique or in performance maturity. If she can keep her physique in check, IMO her performance quality can get even better toward the end of season. The added experience she will pick up in between would also help, so I think she will be picked.
Pogorilaya, she's obviously a huge talent and I actually think in the next quad she can be more successful than Lipnitskaia, but I just can't picture both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva being left out of the team.
she grew some of her jumps got bigger but some are more unstable like her axel and flip
Im getting tired of all the Julia will lose her all her jumps, weren't some predicting that since she was 13 ?
werent some even predicting Julia would experience a growth spurt and making Sochi would be a toll order to climb and her chance was very slim. some people are just too wishful and delusional
tell you what is the reason:
Yes, she grew !, is that normal ? yes
she grew in pace and not abrupt that is why she is handling it very well so far
I really hope that Sot/Tuk actually earn their spot, instead of denying a cleaner Pogorilaya/Gosviani/whoever a spot.