Are Lipnitskaya & Pogorilaya now the favourites to make the Russian Olympic team? | Page 6 | Golden Skate

Are Lipnitskaya & Pogorilaya now the favourites to make the Russian Olympic team?

wordsworthgirl

Medalist
Joined
Sep 12, 2013
So far, I say Liza and Julia. If Liza squeezes a close to clean SP, Anna will be unable to beat her IMO. At least not this season. Julia is unstoppable.

Agreed. and in all honesty, I was unimpressed with Anna at Cup of China. Other than landing her jumps, she isn't very good! S is a far stronger skater overall, but unfortunately she seems to be a head case when it comes to the long program self-destruct.
 

wordsworthgirl

Medalist
Joined
Sep 12, 2013
I agree. If Gold was so brilliant, her PB score would be much higher. There is a reason why her PB score is lower than Julia's.

I agree that Julia isn't too far behind Gracie but I do think that Gracie is FAR better than Anna. I must say Sotnikova impresses me with her overall skating, line, extension, originality- too bad she is mentally the weakest.
 

zamboni step

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 14, 2013
I would be shocked if a clean Elizaveta were to beat a clean Julia right now. Especialy as the Russian fed. will push the skater who has been so consistent for the last few years, especialy this year so far, over someone who isnt consistent and isnt getting the results even if she pops up a perfect competition suddenly out of nowhere. It is not like there is anything that superior about Elizaveta's skating to Julia that overcomes Julia's current building momentum and rep, and Elizaveta has way worse spins and worse programs this year anyway. Julia will score slightly higher on PCS (or more than slightly if her consistency continues at this level and the judges likely dish out some more points as a result), much higher on non jumps elements, their jump layout and GOE on the jumps is about the same.

Elizaveta is a much stronger performer and don't forget her coach is Mishin, they tend to give his students a little nudge up in PCS. As for spins, that's true but Elizaveta's are better than last year by quite a bit and wouldn't totally put her out of the game. And Julia receive the same GOE on her jumps as Liza??? That's just not going to happen considering how good her jumps are when they work, some of the best in the world, Julia's quality of jump is only standard. And Elizaveta's jump layout is more difficult than Julia's with her 2A-3T and 3-2-2 in the second half.

As for Adelina, for her skating well is not skating cleanly but skating a 80% clean program, and that could easiily lose out to the other two.

On that we're agreed.
 

ciocio

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 27, 2010
Elizaveta is a much stronger performer and don't forget her coach is Mishin, they tend to give his students a little nudge up in PCS.

Tarasova will fight to send Kovtun and Sotnikova to the Olys. If Kovtun won't go, Sotnikova is a lock, unless Liza has clearly superior results at Russian Nationals, GP series and Euros.
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
What did the commentators on Russian TV say about Anna's win, and about Sotnikova dropping back to second?
 

LiamForeman

William/Uilyam
Medalist
Joined
Nov 24, 2006
Hmmm. I thought Anna was not so great. All elbows, shoulders, knees, flexed feet. I think she landed her jumps, I was so distracted by her poor skating. So she won, great. It was a terrible event. Kostner has only impressed me maybe once in her 15 years as a senior and today was not one of them. She was typical Caro who somehow got propped up. No, Pogo won't go to the Olympics, her skating is abysmal. I watched her go through her program and thought 'Well she sorta has the jumps and combos but nothing else'.

I'm calling it obviously Julia, and Tuk. Sot is a nutcase.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Elizaveta is a much stronger performer and don't forget her coach is Mishin, they tend to give his students a little nudge up in PCS. As for spins, that's true but Elizaveta's are better than last year by quite a bit and wouldn't totally put her out of the game. And Julia receive the same GOE on her jumps as Liza??? That's just not going to happen considering how good her jumps are when they work, some of the best in the world, Julia's quality of jump is only standard. And Elizaveta's jump layout is more difficult than Julia's with her 2A-3T and 3-2-2 in the second half.
With all due respect, this is just not true. Liza is not a stronger performer than Julia in her current programs. I do think Julia's team was SMART and gave her programs that could work for her, and that had they given Julia anything upbeat, or anything honestly not just heartbreaking, this would not be true. However, Liza is a middling performer at best compared to the other top skaters. At worst, at this time, she and Julia are neck to neck. No advantage to either skater.

Liza gets very poor PCS for a skater of her caliber, and Julia's PCS are now above hers. If that would change if Liza could go clean is a question worth considering, but I think, at worst, they are again neck to neck on this point, advantage to Julia..

Liza would pick up some extra GOE for her jumps if both were clean, and Julia would pick up some extra GOE for her spins and steps and for the choreographic sequence. Julia's BV is higher. Again, I'm calling this neck to neck at best, advantage to Julia.

So, if they both go clean, I see it as a virtual tie, in the best case scenario for Liza, and realistically, Julia coming out slightly ahead. In such a scenario, if Russia is deciding at their nationals (barring a total comeback from Liza where she skates clean every time starting YESTERDAY or a total meltdown from Julia) Julia will be marked ahead and sent to Sochi as the number one, because she is consistent and the federation is rightly going to think it's better to send her as the number one because she is far less likely to mess up than Liza.

I am not a Liza hater, but this is the truth.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
this is wrong though if you look at the the protocols
Julia almost gets the same GOE that Tuk gets, so its not a Tuk advantage at all

Tuk lost some of her jump height ever since she developed her weight issues
even Averbukh in interview said Tuk needs to lose weight
 

seniorita

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2008
Great another know- it- all about the weight of a 17 year old.:rolleye: Liza is really slim, if you see her live she has no fat anywhere,she just grew up and not all people are getting the body type of Yuna Kim. Besides her weight is not an issue obviously otherwise she wouldnt be able to skate two clean or almost clean Fs already in the season. Also Leonova and Elena G the moment they started losing weight below their normal, they have gone downhill. Between Averbukh and Mishin I trust Mishin on this, sorry.
If Julia gets the same goe for her jumps as Liza, then there is a problem because I see their technique is night and day.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Great another know- it- all about the weight of a 17 year old.:rolleye: Liza is really slim, if you see her live she has no fat anywhere,she just grew up and not all people are getting the body type of Yuna Kim. Besides her weight is not an issue obviously otherwise she wouldnt be able to skate two clean or almost clean Fs already in the season. Also Leonova and Elena G the moment they started losing weight below their normal, they have gone downhill. Between Averbukh and Mishin I trust Mishin on this, sorry.
If Julia gets the same goe for her jumps as Liza, then there is a problem because I see their technique is night and day.

Averkbukh comment on the state of Russian ladies and figure skaters in Russia for Sochi
he said Tuk is struggling because she has weight issues http://www.championat.com/olympic14...ansakh-rossijskikh-figuristov-na-oi-2014.html
 

zamboni step

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 14, 2013
With all due respect, this is just not true. Liza is not a stronger performer than Julia in her current programs. I do think Julia's team was SMART and gave her programs that could work for her, and that had they given Julia anything upbeat, or anything honestly not just heartbreaking, this would not be true. However, Liza is a middling performer at best compared to the other top skaters. At worst, at this time, she and Julia are neck to neck. No advantage to either skater.

Well there's no accounting for taste obviously, but I think that we may mean different things by performer. I meant a stronger performer in the sense that she really comes alive and engages the audience when she skates, Julia by comparison is quite introverted. Julia does have better program's and interpretation as well as skating skills I agree though.

Liza would pick up some extra GOE for her jumps if both were clean, and Julia would pick up some extra GOE for her spins and steps and for the choreographic sequence. Julia's BV is higher. Again, I'm calling this neck to neck at best, advantage to Julia.

The part about Julia having higher BV is factually not true at this point when clean. Having calculated it Liza just barely tops Julia in BV because of two of her three big elements being in the second half.

this is wrong though if you look at the the protocols Julia almost gets the same GOE that Tuk gets, so its not a Tuk advantage at all

Obviously you receive a little boost in GOE when you skate clean, or a big one. And this was in reference to jumps not GOE in its entirety. Elizaveta definitely has the edge considering she doesn't get edge calls. Has better running edge and height on her jumps.
 

elif

Medalist
Joined
Jan 28, 2010
And her "weight issues" bother her more in the SPs than in the LPs? Well, funny old world we live in then - who'd have thought?:rolleye:

I think her 3lutz+3toe not consistent anymore so this is bothering her at short programs. She didn't land any 3l+3t at free programs this season too. But that is less noticeable.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
And her "weight issues" bother her more in the SPs than in the LPs? Well, funny old world we live in then - who'd have thought?:rolleye:

weight impacts the jumps, she used to be consitent with 3lz-3t
now with her added weight she seems to have struggled and her jump have gotten a bit smaller
 

ucrgirl

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
The "weight" issue had discussed thoroughly else where and is quite boring. It distracts from perfectly interesting threads. Wish we could move on.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Weight is not the issue: Liza's big problem is her chronic inability to skate a clean SP---her free skates are great. Sotnikova skates great SPs but can't get through a FS without making one or two huge mistakes.

How these ladies do in the GP won't count as much as Russian Nationals and Europeans.
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
Weight is not the issue: Liza's big problem is her chronic inability to skate a clean SP---her free skates are great. Sotnikova skates great SPs but can't get through a FS without making one or two huge mistakes.

How these ladies do in the GP won't count as much as Russian Nationals and Europeans.

Exactly!
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I'm calling it obviously Julia, and Tuk. Sot is a nutcase.

Could we be more respectful to the skaters? She isn't a crazy person, she just struggles with her consistency under pressure. Despite the mistakes, Adelina is quite good. I don't think anyone else besides Mao or Yuna could have beaten Carolina in CoC with the same mistakes.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I also don't understand how somebody could call Sot a nutcase when Tuk has messed up her SP over and over. If you're going to flay one skater for inconsistency (and you shouldn't since skaters deserve respect) you should probably shouldn't be lauding or putting your faith in an equally, if not more, inconsistent skater.
 

guanchi

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 31, 2012
I think being called a nutcase is disrespectful- Sot obviously has some technical issues that need to be worked out (her entry to the flip is sooo hesitant and cautious that it's a real issue for her) but questioning her overall mental state is just bizarre. I believe the word that LiamForeman was looking for is headcase. In that sense, many top skaters would in some way or another be a headcase on some issues of their skating. Look at Caro- she might be called a headcase on consistency, but she still has great qualities that compensate for that.
 
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