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Thread: Mao Asada: Olympic Gold Medal Favourite?

  1. #106
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    Yuna Kim is still favorite, maybe not as favorite as she was in 2010 but if she skates clean she wins. I don't know how many mistakes she can afford, but I don't see Mao rotating all her jumps.

  2. #107
    Custom Title skateluvr's Avatar
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    If YuNa is on, who can beat her? No one. She has the huge 3x3's and as a seasoned vet, only maybe Mao will have the cool head. But she won worlds so commandingly. Still, ice is slippery and she could go down. Still, I think she will win. I feel bad for Mao. I think triple axels landed by a woman should be worth more. A triple axel with slight under-rotation is not a double axel. I do not know where the power comes from. Midori, Tonya were much more muscular. If Chan is number 1 with two or 3 falls based on SS then Mao should be too. She just floats-whatever- Kurt never won any medal in Olympics. Mao has earned great skater status like Kurt and Orser.

    I just want the top ladies to skate well, and feel good. If they do their best- well what more? The judging will be tough and it is still subjective regardless of every step being "judged."

    If someone like Wagner, Gold, Osmond had the Sarah/Tara skate, I'd be happy. I just want a great event with some great performances like Vancouver. I loved the "pewter" medalist last time. If our 3 skate like Mirai/Flatt did, well, I'll be thrilled. The American ladies have a tough road to go. I'm rooting for them -they need it-all the talk is the big three endlessly.

    It won't happen but Akiko for gold would really make it for me. And Caro has been there so much, she really should medal at last. I wish there were a pewter medalist at the Worlds and Olympics with so many entrants. Why not?

  3. #108
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    I just want the top ladies to skate well, and feel good. If they do their best- well what more? The judging will be tough and it is still subjective regardless of every step being "judged."

    If someone like Wagner, Gold, Osmond had the Sarah/Tara skate, I'd be happy. I just want a great event with some great performances like Vancouver. I loved the "pewter" medalist last time. If our 3 skate like Mirai/Flatt did, well, I'll be thrilled. The American ladies have a tough road to go. I'm rooting for them -they need it-all the talk is the big three endlessly.
    Agreed.

    I haven't seen Yuna Kim skate yet this season what with her injury. I suppose it's possible that maybe she won't be 100% after the injury or that maybe Mao will deliver a perfect performance and be hungrier than Yuna for the gold, but I would put my money on Yuna. She is just so consistent.

  4. #109
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    I agree with skateluvr that if Yuna is clean she wins. But Mao's NHK LP score was huge and Yuna has only topped 136 twice internationally, so Kim will obviously have to skate near her best to win.

  5. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I agree with skateluvr that if Yuna is clean she wins. But Mao's NHK LP score was huge and Yuna has only topped 136 twice internationally, so Kim will obviously have to skate near her best to win.
    Yes if Yuna is clean she will win. But I disagree with your assessment. Yuna's average LP score after 2006-2007 season (when she was under severe injury), so from 2007-2008 season is near 130. If the current tendency of the inflation of PCS does apply to her, she would get 5+ PCS boost even when she makes some mistakes. You know, when she made 1 major mistake(and one minor perhaps), PCS has been around 65 after 2008-2009 season. Nowadays, with similar (or even worse) level of technically flawed program, skaters are getting near 70+ in PCS. Therefore this 130 score can be easily referred as something like 135 in current way of judging. For example, if Yuna skates like she did in 2009 TEB (she popped 3F and scored 133+) nowadays, she will easily get 136+.

    Of course, I wish all the skaters, including Mao, can skate their best at Sochi and the best one wins the gold.

  6. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I agree with skateluvr that if Yuna is clean she wins. But Mao's NHK LP score was huge and Yuna has only topped 136 twice internationally, so Kim will obviously have to skate near her best to win.
    Yuna will get huge scores too, she just didn't have the opportunity yet.

  7. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciocio View Post
    Yuna will get huge scores too, she just didn't have the opportunity yet.
    I agree, what I was saying is that she will have to skate well because Mao can make a few small mistakes and still score ~135.

  8. #113
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    I am taking Mao's 136 at NHK with a huge grain of salt. The Olympics won't be in Japan and Mao will not receive the favourable calls she received at NHK, so that score is not the best barometer of her scoring potential.

  9. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I am taking Mao's 136 at NHK with a huge grain of salt. The Olympics won't be in Japan and Mao will not receive the favourable calls she received at NHK, so that score is not the best barometer of her scoring potential.
    She scored 131 at Skate America with a fall on an Urd 3A, two footed 3Lz and only a 2A-2T. 135 at NHK Trophy makes more sense that what she got at Skate America, IMO. I am absolutely sure that she's going to receive 130+ for performances like NHK trophy, no matter where she skates.
    And I am not saying she is the gold medal favorite, but she surely is a strong contender (unlike, so far, Carolina)

  10. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mirunna View Post
    She scored 131 at Skate America with a fall on an Urd 3A, two footed 3Lz and only a 2A-2T. 135 at NHK Trophy makes more sense that what she got at Skate America, IMO. I am absolutely sure that she's going to receive 130+ for performances like NHK trophy, no matter where she skates.
    And I am not saying she is the gold medal favorite, but she surely is a strong contender (unlike, so far, Carolina)
    I'm fairly certain the tech specialist at Skate America would have been more meticulous when it came to her URs than NHK, and the judges wouldn't have been as generous on GOE. Her 2A-3T for example surely should have been called as UR. Everyone knows that NHK is an event Mao is favoured to win, and she gets huge scores even when she underperforms.

    She did deserve to win, but those scores would not have been given to her in any other competition. You might as well be using Japanese Nationals scores as a point of comparison to how she would score internationally.

  11. #116
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    I agree Mao would not get the same scores anywhere but Japan IF that is the performance she puts out (obviously she has potential to skate better and cleaner than that). Her total score would be atleast 6 points lower if those are the performances she does at the Games.

    As for scores over history, everyone knows scores escalate over time ever since the inception of COP even for similar performances. So one cant really look at that closely. Mao herself has done performances way back in 2007 and 2008 (her true peak as a skater) that were light years better than her NHK performance (virtually clean performances, with even more content, and more beautiful artistry and better programs than anything she does these days), but still scored lower.

  12. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciocio View Post
    Yuna Kim is still favorite, maybe not as favorite as she was in 2010 but if she skates clean she wins.
    Assuming that Kim will skate clean is a big if. Kim has always had a habit of making mistakes in either the SP or FS. That is the reason why, up to and including the 2009/10 season, she only managed to win 1 world title in addition to her Olympic title. The mistakes cost her at the World Championships in 2007, 2008, and 2010. Of course, she added a 2nd world title last season. But, this season, unlike last season, her preparation has been hampered by injury

  13. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mao88 View Post
    Assuming that Kim will skate clean is a big if. Kim has always had a habit of making mistakes in either the SP or FS. That is the reason why, up to and including the 2009/10 season, she only managed to win 1 world title in addition to her Olympic title. The mistakes cost her at the World Championships in 2007, 2008, and 2010. Of course, she added a 2nd world title last season. But, this season, unlike last season, her preparation has been hampered by injury
    Agreed. However, she still cleans better than others, so we go back to her being the favourite.

    What's changed today is that Mao is a closer competitor to Yuna with her lovely SP. Until yesterday, Yuna was basically the sole favourite, but now Mao is there too. Equally great, as in likely best of Mao and usual best of Yuna, the gold still leans towards Yuna, but now we can say Mao's gold is a possibility.

  14. #119
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mao88 View Post
    Assuming that Kim will skate clean is a big if. Kim has always had a habit of making mistakes in either the SP or FS. That is the reason why, up to and including the 2009/10 season, she only managed to win 1 world title in addition to her Olympic title. The mistakes cost her at the World Championships in 2007, 2008, and 2010. Of course, she added a 2nd world title last season. But, this season, unlike last season, her preparation has been hampered by injury
    But a clean LP Mao is an even bigger IF, especially at a big competition like Worlds/Olympics. When was the last time she had a clean FS and scored anywhere near 150?

  15. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    But a clean LP Mao is an even bigger IF, especially at a big competition like Worlds/Olympics. When was the last time she had a clean FS and scored anywhere near 150?
    That's a trick question, amirite?

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