Mao Asada: Olympic Gold Medal Favourite? | Page 6 | Golden Skate

Mao Asada: Olympic Gold Medal Favourite?

skateluvr

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
Mao's SP is sublime, my favotite SP thus far. Love Gracies too and Akiko's. Also love love love everything Adam Rippon does. He is the most elegant guy since young Jeremy. He makes Jeremy look like the younger guy. But as for ladies, Mao's SP should get huge numbers if skated well. I like her LP but not as much.

I would love to see this butterfly win. She's a phenom...a triple axel jumper who also floats. No one like her. Sadly, I think Kim will go clean/minor mistakes and win. It would be a great end to the rivalry to switch spots, but I think a couple Russian girls may upset this podium. Just skate well ladies. If we hap a top 10 like at Vancouver, we will be blessed.
 

David21

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 24, 2004
At Cup of China, Kostner made as many obvious mistakes as Mao had under-rotations. Saying "when her jumps are clean" doesn't really say much when you accomplished all of 2 clean triples. And of course when Kostner doubles a jump, it's rotated; she's not doing a loop combination, is she? Mao doesn't exactly have issues rotating her doubled Salchows, Flips or Toes, or a doubled Loop that should have been a triple for that matter. Her rather unfortunate 2012 WC championship FS has plenty of clean doubles and singles if that's what you'd rather watch.


I'd rather watch clean doubles than badly underrotated triple jumps but maybe that's just me.
And Kostner has done loop combinations in the past and IIRC they were never underrotated unlike Mao's.
Kostner's jumps are, generally speaking, of very good quality, high and VERY rarely underrotated. Mao OTOH can't even rotate her double loops but some of her fans are turning a blind eye on that. Unfortunately, the judges this season have chosen to do the same.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Julia has already topped Carolina's all-time career personal best total (~198) and Ashley and Akiko have come within 5 points of that total this season, even with their mistakes. Carolina has also struggled to skate well at previous Olympics, so I think it is increasing likely that she will be off the podium.

I have absolutely no faith in Ashley or Akiko to put together a perfect competition at the Olympics, as much as I would like Ashley especialy to medal. I wont even get started on Gold whose consistency issues are as bad as the non Julia Russian ladies. I think if Kostner skates somewhat decent, Julia is the only major threat to push her off.
 

macy

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
I have absolutely no faith in Ashley or Akiko to put together a perfect competition at the Olympics, as much as I would like Ashley especialy to medal. I wont even get started on Gold whose consistency issues are as bad as the non Julia Russian ladies. I think if Kostner skates somewhat decent, Julia is the only major threat to push her off.

why not ashley?
 

elif

Medalist
Joined
Jan 28, 2010
Remember Asada's base value in the LP is like 10 points away. That would not just be easily made up by Kim if Asada skated cleanly.

This is just not true. Her NHK base value score is just 59 add that 3S maybe 62 at best. Radionova just did one triple jump after the second half of the program still got 61. How she is 10 point ahead? :confused: And there is underrotation and GOE. If Kim skates clean her GOE will be very very high. While Asada will not get any GOE from lutz and double footed 3A. I didn't even say her single looking 2Loops.
 

ciocio

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 27, 2010
Yuna Kim is still favorite, maybe not as favorite as she was in 2010 but if she skates clean she wins. I don't know how many mistakes she can afford, but I don't see Mao rotating all her jumps.:scowl:
 

skateluvr

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
If YuNa is on, who can beat her? No one. She has the huge 3x3's and as a seasoned vet, only maybe Mao will have the cool head. But she won worlds so commandingly. Still, ice is slippery and she could go down. Still, I think she will win. I feel bad for Mao. I think triple axels landed by a woman should be worth more. A triple axel with slight under-rotation is not a double axel. I do not know where the power comes from. Midori, Tonya were much more muscular. If Chan is number 1 with two or 3 falls based on SS then Mao should be too. She just floats-whatever- Kurt never won any medal in Olympics. Mao has earned great skater status like Kurt and Orser.

I just want the top ladies to skate well, and feel good. If they do their best- well what more? The judging will be tough and it is still subjective regardless of every step being "judged."

If someone like Wagner, Gold, Osmond had the Sarah/Tara skate, I'd be happy. I just want a great event with some great performances like Vancouver. I loved the "pewter" medalist last time. If our 3 skate like Mirai/Flatt did, well, I'll be thrilled. The American ladies have a tough road to go. I'm rooting for them -they need it-all the talk is the big three endlessly.

It won't happen but Akiko for gold would really make it for me. And Caro has been there so much, she really should medal at last. I wish there were a pewter medalist at the Worlds and Olympics with so many entrants. Why not?
 

caitie

Medalist
Joined
Sep 14, 2013
I just want the top ladies to skate well, and feel good. If they do their best- well what more? The judging will be tough and it is still subjective regardless of every step being "judged."

If someone like Wagner, Gold, Osmond had the Sarah/Tara skate, I'd be happy. I just want a great event with some great performances like Vancouver. I loved the "pewter" medalist last time. If our 3 skate like Mirai/Flatt did, well, I'll be thrilled. The American ladies have a tough road to go. I'm rooting for them -they need it-all the talk is the big three endlessly.

Agreed.

I haven't seen Yuna Kim skate yet this season what with her injury. I suppose it's possible that maybe she won't be 100% after the injury or that maybe Mao will deliver a perfect performance and be hungrier than Yuna for the gold, but I would put my money on Yuna. She is just so consistent.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I agree with skateluvr that if Yuna is clean she wins. But Mao's NHK LP score was huge and Yuna has only topped 136 twice internationally, so Kim will obviously have to skate near her best to win.
 

bara1968

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 14, 2013
I agree with skateluvr that if Yuna is clean she wins. But Mao's NHK LP score was huge and Yuna has only topped 136 twice internationally, so Kim will obviously have to skate near her best to win.

Yes if Yuna is clean she will win. But I disagree with your assessment. Yuna's average LP score after 2006-2007 season (when she was under severe injury), so from 2007-2008 season is near 130. If the current tendency of the inflation of PCS does apply to her, she would get 5+ PCS boost even when she makes some mistakes. You know, when she made 1 major mistake(and one minor perhaps), PCS has been around 65 after 2008-2009 season. Nowadays, with similar (or even worse) level of technically flawed program, skaters are getting near 70+ in PCS. Therefore this 130 score can be easily referred as something like 135 in current way of judging. For example, if Yuna skates like she did in 2009 TEB (she popped 3F and scored 133+) nowadays, she will easily get 136+.

Of course, I wish all the skaters, including Mao, can skate their best at Sochi and the best one wins the gold.
 

ciocio

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 27, 2010
I agree with skateluvr that if Yuna is clean she wins. But Mao's NHK LP score was huge and Yuna has only topped 136 twice internationally, so Kim will obviously have to skate near her best to win.

Yuna will get huge scores too, she just didn't have the opportunity yet.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I am taking Mao's 136 at NHK with a huge grain of salt. The Olympics won't be in Japan and Mao will not receive the favourable calls she received at NHK, so that score is not the best barometer of her scoring potential.
 

Mirunna

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 12, 2009
I am taking Mao's 136 at NHK with a huge grain of salt. The Olympics won't be in Japan and Mao will not receive the favourable calls she received at NHK, so that score is not the best barometer of her scoring potential.

She scored 131 at Skate America with a fall on an Urd 3A, two footed 3Lz and only a 2A-2T. 135 at NHK Trophy makes more sense that what she got at Skate America, IMO. I am absolutely sure that she's going to receive 130+ for performances like NHK trophy, no matter where she skates.
And I am not saying she is the gold medal favorite, but she surely is a strong contender (unlike, so far, Carolina)
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
She scored 131 at Skate America with a fall on an Urd 3A, two footed 3Lz and only a 2A-2T. 135 at NHK Trophy makes more sense that what she got at Skate America, IMO. I am absolutely sure that she's going to receive 130+ for performances like NHK trophy, no matter where she skates.
And I am not saying she is the gold medal favorite, but she surely is a strong contender (unlike, so far, Carolina)

I'm fairly certain the tech specialist at Skate America would have been more meticulous when it came to her URs than NHK, and the judges wouldn't have been as generous on GOE. Her 2A-3T for example surely should have been called as UR. Everyone knows that NHK is an event Mao is favoured to win, and she gets huge scores even when she underperforms.

She did deserve to win, but those scores would not have been given to her in any other competition. You might as well be using Japanese Nationals scores as a point of comparison to how she would score internationally.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I agree Mao would not get the same scores anywhere but Japan IF that is the performance she puts out (obviously she has potential to skate better and cleaner than that). Her total score would be atleast 6 points lower if those are the performances she does at the Games.

As for scores over history, everyone knows scores escalate over time ever since the inception of COP even for similar performances. So one cant really look at that closely. Mao herself has done performances way back in 2007 and 2008 (her true peak as a skater) that were light years better than her NHK performance (virtually clean performances, with even more content, and more beautiful artistry and better programs than anything she does these days), but still scored lower.
 

Mao88

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
Yuna Kim is still favorite, maybe not as favorite as she was in 2010 but if she skates clean she wins.

Assuming that Kim will skate clean is a big if. Kim has always had a habit of making mistakes in either the SP or FS. That is the reason why, up to and including the 2009/10 season, she only managed to win 1 world title in addition to her Olympic title. The mistakes cost her at the World Championships in 2007, 2008, and 2010. Of course, she added a 2nd world title last season. But, this season, unlike last season, her preparation has been hampered by injury
 

bebevia

On the Ice
Joined
Jun 22, 2011
Assuming that Kim will skate clean is a big if. Kim has always had a habit of making mistakes in either the SP or FS. That is the reason why, up to and including the 2009/10 season, she only managed to win 1 world title in addition to her Olympic title. The mistakes cost her at the World Championships in 2007, 2008, and 2010. Of course, she added a 2nd world title last season. But, this season, unlike last season, her preparation has been hampered by injury
Agreed. However, she still cleans better than others, so we go back to her being the favourite.

What's changed today is that Mao is a closer competitor to Yuna with her lovely SP. Until yesterday, Yuna was basically the sole favourite, but now Mao is there too. Equally great, as in likely best of Mao and usual best of Yuna, the gold still leans towards Yuna, but now we can say Mao's gold is a possibility.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
Assuming that Kim will skate clean is a big if. Kim has always had a habit of making mistakes in either the SP or FS. That is the reason why, up to and including the 2009/10 season, she only managed to win 1 world title in addition to her Olympic title. The mistakes cost her at the World Championships in 2007, 2008, and 2010. Of course, she added a 2nd world title last season. But, this season, unlike last season, her preparation has been hampered by injury

But a clean LP Mao is an even bigger IF, especially at a big competition like Worlds/Olympics. When was the last time she had a clean FS and scored anywhere near 150?
 
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