- Joined
- Sep 22, 2010
That's a trick question, amirite?
Not at all. Mao88 seems to imply that we should highly doubt ("big if") that Yuna will skate clean in Sochi, and on the basis of this doubt she is not as strong a favorite.
This makes no sense to me, since Mao has never at any previous Worlds or Olympics gone clean in both the short and the free, while Yuna has. If Yuna going clean is a BIG if, then Mao going clean is an even BIGGER "if".
Furthermore, when using the past as predictor, it stands to reason that we should weigh the more recent past greater than the remote past. I don't think the fact that Yuna fell on both her Lutzes in 2007 Worlds has an equal or greater bearing on how she'll do in Sochi, than the fact that she was clean at Worlds 2013. The latter has a much great weight in forecasting the results in Sochi. In that case, Yuna going clean in Sochi is not a BIG if--I'd say it's a very reasonable chance and higher than anybody. Certainly higher than Chan, Lipnitskaia, Kostner or Asada.