Mao Asada: Olympic Gold Medal Favourite? | Page 7 | Golden Skate

Mao Asada: Olympic Gold Medal Favourite?

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
That's a trick question, amirite? :p

Not at all. Mao88 seems to imply that we should highly doubt ("big if") that Yuna will skate clean in Sochi, and on the basis of this doubt she is not as strong a favorite.

This makes no sense to me, since Mao has never at any previous Worlds or Olympics gone clean in both the short and the free, while Yuna has. If Yuna going clean is a BIG if, then Mao going clean is an even BIGGER "if".

Furthermore, when using the past as predictor, it stands to reason that we should weigh the more recent past greater than the remote past. I don't think the fact that Yuna fell on both her Lutzes in 2007 Worlds has an equal or greater bearing on how she'll do in Sochi, than the fact that she was clean at Worlds 2013. The latter has a much great weight in forecasting the results in Sochi. In that case, Yuna going clean in Sochi is not a BIG if--I'd say it's a very reasonable chance and higher than anybody. Certainly higher than Chan, Lipnitskaia, Kostner or Asada.
 

Jewels

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 20, 2013
Assuming that Kim will skate clean is a big if. Kim has always had a habit of making mistakes in either the SP or FS. That is the reason why, up to and including the 2009/10 season, she only managed to win 1 world title in addition to her Olympic title. The mistakes cost her at the World Championships in 2007, 2008, and 2010. Of course, she added a 2nd world title last season. But, this season, unlike last season, her preparation has been hampered by injury
Yeah, but remember, Yuna was heavily injured in 2007 and 2008, which is a very different situation from this season, when Yuna has said she's more than 90% healed.
And in 2010? That was right after she won the olympic gold, she shouldn't have done that competition at all really. She said that she almost withdrawed in her interview.
Before 2009 Yuna and after 2009 Yuna is a completely different Yuna in my opinion, and after checking her practice yesterday, I say she's more prepared than the last season (if you have forgotten, last season was when Yuna came back after skipping a whole season).

Also, just like bebevia and krislite have said, the chance of Yuna skating clean is much higher than the other skaters, based on the past competitions, don't you think?
And why does Yuna have to skate clean to win the gold anyway? If she makes less mistakes than others, then she will be the one to take the title.
 

Robeye

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
Not at all. Mao88 seems to imply that we should highly doubt ("big if") that Yuna will skate clean in Sochi, and on the basis of this doubt she is not as strong a favorite.

This makes no sense to me, since Mao has never at any previous Worlds or Olympics gone clean in both the short and the free, while Yuna has. If Yuna going clean is a BIG if, then Mao going clean is an even BIGGER "if".

Furthermore, when using the past as predictor, it stands to reason that we should weigh the more recent past greater than the remote past. I don't think the fact that Yuna fell on both her Lutzes in 2007 Worlds has an equal or greater bearing on how she'll do in Sochi, than the fact that she was clean at Worlds 2013. The latter has a much great weight in forecasting the results in Sochi. In that case, Yuna going clean in Sochi is not a BIG if--I'd say it's a very reasonable chance and higher than anybody. Certainly higher than Chan, Lipnitskaia, Kostner or Asada.
Yes, I agree with your reasoning. But the answer to your question of "when was the last time..." is, as you say, "never" (in terms of complete cleanliness, as well as the 150 LP milestone). Hence my remark that this was a trick question. ;)
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003

Robeye

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
The favorite? As in putting your money where your mouth is? ;)

The Las Vegas odds haven't been posted for Sochi yet, but for Vancouver it was:

Kim1 to 2
Rochette 11 to 2
Asada 11/2
Ando 15/2
Kostner 16/1

http://www.thespread.com/sports-bet...mpics-womens-figure-skating-odds#.UqEkG6WB_wI

Plushenko 4/9
Lysacek 8/1
Lambiel 10/1
Takahashi 12/1
Joubert 12/1
Chan 12/1
Abbott 14/1

http://www.thespread.com/sports-bet...lympics-mens-figure-skating-odds#.UqEj5qWB_wI
The oddsmakers called the ladies podium not only accurately, but fairly precisely, too. The fact that Mao and Joannie were very close in score, whereas Yuna was way ahead, can be seen as reflected in the magnitude of the relative odds.

Men's was not quite so accurate, but then, I would venture that very little money was riding on the mens discipline, which makes the results statistically suspect. The 'wisdom of crowds' doesn't work very well without a minimum threshold betting volume.

I'd be interested in knowing when they open the book on Sochi odds.
 

chansb

Spectator
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
The favorite? As in putting your money where your mouth is? ;)

The Las Vegas odds haven't been posted for Sochi yet, but for Vancouver it was:

Kim1 to 2
Rochette 11 to 2
Asada 11/2
Ando 15/2
Kostner 16/1

http://www.thespread.com/sports-bet...mpics-womens-figure-skating-odds#.UqEkG6WB_wI

Plushenko 4/9
Lysacek 8/1
Lambiel 10/1
Takahashi 12/1
Joubert 12/1
Chan 12/1
Abbott 14/1

http://www.thespread.com/sports-bet...lympics-mens-figure-skating-odds#.UqEj5qWB_wI




The gap can be reduced in Sochi. The rule was changed. She is the Only lady who can Do three triples in her SP jumping layout.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
The favorite? As in putting your money where your mouth is? ;)

The Las Vegas odds haven't been posted for Sochi yet, but for Vancouver it was:

Kim1 to 2
Rochette 11 to 2
Asada 11/2
Ando 15/2
Kostner 16/1

http://www.thespread.com/sports-bet...mpics-womens-figure-skating-odds#.UqEkG6WB_wI

Plushenko 4/9
Lysacek 8/1
Lambiel 10/1
Takahashi 12/1
Joubert 12/1
Chan 12/1
Abbott 14/1

http://www.thespread.com/sports-bet...lympics-mens-figure-skating-odds#.UqEj5qWB_wI

Those odds for Plushenko were CRAZY. In no way should he have been that strong a favorite. His skating was nowhere near as strong as 2006, and if everyone skated cleanly it was clear he was likely going to lose (heck Lysacek even beat a cleanish Plushenko and there were ton of guys who could have beaten Evan in Vancouver). I would have still picked him the slight favorite due to the unreliability of the field but those are 2006 esque odds. Crazy, and signs the bookies arent skating experts in this case. Only a fool would have bet on Plushenko at those odds.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Also a huge ROTFL at Plushenko being given even better odds to win the mens than Kim the ladies in Vancouver. Proposterous.
 

Mao88

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
Kim Yu-Na performances at the Golden Spin:-

Short Program, Free Skate

What was that you Kim Ubers were saying about Kim and consistency?

Probably the worst choreographed long program Kim has had in her entire career. Does not bode well for her Olympic chances

Another fabulous win today for Mao in the GPF. Olympic favourite - Mao
 

hurrah

Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
What's up with Yuna? Maybe she's just lacking the stamina to put in that extra oomph, but she totally looked like she did not want to be out there competing. She looked like it was her own funeral. She's actually looking really thin.
 

Mao88

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
What's up with Yuna? Maybe she's just lacking the stamina to put in that extra oomph, but she totally looked like she did not want to be out there competing. She looked like it was her own funeral. She's actually looking really thin.

Injury set backs always have a knock on effect, but you would not have thought that given what the presumptuous Kim fans have had to say over the last couple of months.
 

YunaBliss

On the Ice
Joined
May 11, 2010
Probably the worst choreographed long program Kim has had in her entire career. Does not bode well for her Olympic chances

Another fabulous win today for Mao in the GPF. Olympic favourite - Mao

LMAO. You really want to do this?
 

elee63

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 22, 2013
LMAO. You really want to do this?


LMAO is right...
Mao88, as a veteran of the site, are you really so unaware of the vapid yuna fans who will hunt you down?

That being said, I personally was too distracted after the fall to really appreciate any choreography. But, this is the first showing.
Mao's and others' fs have all grown on me over time and feel FAMILIAR. I am able to catch all the nuances.

Kim's program I would love to see again before the Olympics. But from what I was getting during her interview, I don't think that'll be happening.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
LMAO. You really want to do this?

We Yuna ubers are burying our heads in the sand by denying the FABULOUS win by Mao Asada at the GPF. Didn't you see her free program and saw how well she did compared to Yuna? As Mao88 said, her Olympic chances are clearly doomed. All hail Empress Mao! ;)
 

Barb

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 13, 2009
What's up with Yuna? Maybe she's just lacking the stamina to put in that extra oomph, but she totally looked like she did not want to be out there competing. She looked like it was her own funeral. She's actually looking really thin.
-indeed :slink:
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Based on her debut I would say Kim already shows she is the OGM favorite as most neutral observers believed all along. Her scores would have won the Grand Prix final even though she is still incredbly rusty and did a relatively poor LP, and she is still getting much higher PCS from the judges, even for imperfect skates, than Mao.
 

YunaBliss

On the Ice
Joined
May 11, 2010
204.49 v. 204.02. Half-injured Yuna with "worst program ever" still trumped Empress Mao's "glorious" win at GPF. But I guess you already knew that. :laugh:
 
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