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Thread: Mao Asada: Olympic Gold Medal Favourite?

  1. #121
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robeye View Post
    That's a trick question, amirite?
    Not at all. Mao88 seems to imply that we should highly doubt ("big if") that Yuna will skate clean in Sochi, and on the basis of this doubt she is not as strong a favorite.

    This makes no sense to me, since Mao has never at any previous Worlds or Olympics gone clean in both the short and the free, while Yuna has. If Yuna going clean is a BIG if, then Mao going clean is an even BIGGER "if".

    Furthermore, when using the past as predictor, it stands to reason that we should weigh the more recent past greater than the remote past. I don't think the fact that Yuna fell on both her Lutzes in 2007 Worlds has an equal or greater bearing on how she'll do in Sochi, than the fact that she was clean at Worlds 2013. The latter has a much great weight in forecasting the results in Sochi. In that case, Yuna going clean in Sochi is not a BIG if--I'd say it's a very reasonable chance and higher than anybody. Certainly higher than Chan, Lipnitskaia, Kostner or Asada.

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mao88 View Post
    Assuming that Kim will skate clean is a big if. Kim has always had a habit of making mistakes in either the SP or FS. That is the reason why, up to and including the 2009/10 season, she only managed to win 1 world title in addition to her Olympic title. The mistakes cost her at the World Championships in 2007, 2008, and 2010. Of course, she added a 2nd world title last season. But, this season, unlike last season, her preparation has been hampered by injury
    Yeah, but remember, Yuna was heavily injured in 2007 and 2008, which is a very different situation from this season, when Yuna has said she's more than 90% healed.
    And in 2010? That was right after she won the olympic gold, she shouldn't have done that competition at all really. She said that she almost withdrawed in her interview.
    Before 2009 Yuna and after 2009 Yuna is a completely different Yuna in my opinion, and after checking her practice yesterday, I say she's more prepared than the last season (if you have forgotten, last season was when Yuna came back after skipping a whole season).

    Also, just like bebevia and krislite have said, the chance of Yuna skating clean is much higher than the other skaters, based on the past competitions, don't you think?
    And why does Yuna have to skate clean to win the gold anyway? If she makes less mistakes than others, then she will be the one to take the title.

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Not at all. Mao88 seems to imply that we should highly doubt ("big if") that Yuna will skate clean in Sochi, and on the basis of this doubt she is not as strong a favorite.

    This makes no sense to me, since Mao has never at any previous Worlds or Olympics gone clean in both the short and the free, while Yuna has. If Yuna going clean is a BIG if, then Mao going clean is an even BIGGER "if".

    Furthermore, when using the past as predictor, it stands to reason that we should weigh the more recent past greater than the remote past. I don't think the fact that Yuna fell on both her Lutzes in 2007 Worlds has an equal or greater bearing on how she'll do in Sochi, than the fact that she was clean at Worlds 2013. The latter has a much great weight in forecasting the results in Sochi. In that case, Yuna going clean in Sochi is not a BIG if--I'd say it's a very reasonable chance and higher than anybody. Certainly higher than Chan, Lipnitskaia, Kostner or Asada.
    Yes, I agree with your reasoning. But the answer to your question of "when was the last time..." is, as you say, "never" (in terms of complete cleanliness, as well as the 150 LP milestone). Hence my remark that this was a trick question.

  4. #124
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    The favorite? As in putting your money where your mouth is?

    The Las Vegas odds haven't been posted for Sochi yet, but for Vancouver it was:

    Kim1 to 2
    Rochette 11 to 2
    Asada 11/2
    Ando 15/2
    Kostner 16/1

    http://www.thespread.com/sports-bett...s#.UqEkG6WB_wI

    Plushenko 4/9
    Lysacek 8/1
    Lambiel 10/1
    Takahashi 12/1
    Joubert 12/1
    Chan 12/1
    Abbott 14/1

    http://www.thespread.com/sports-bett...s#.UqEj5qWB_wI

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    The favorite? As in putting your money where your mouth is?

    The Las Vegas odds haven't been posted for Sochi yet, but for Vancouver it was:

    Kim1 to 2
    Rochette 11 to 2
    Asada 11/2
    Ando 15/2
    Kostner 16/1

    http://www.thespread.com/sports-bett...s#.UqEkG6WB_wI

    Plushenko 4/9
    Lysacek 8/1
    Lambiel 10/1
    Takahashi 12/1
    Joubert 12/1
    Chan 12/1
    Abbott 14/1

    http://www.thespread.com/sports-bett...s#.UqEj5qWB_wI
    The oddsmakers called the ladies podium not only accurately, but fairly precisely, too. The fact that Mao and Joannie were very close in score, whereas Yuna was way ahead, can be seen as reflected in the magnitude of the relative odds.

    Men's was not quite so accurate, but then, I would venture that very little money was riding on the mens discipline, which makes the results statistically suspect. The 'wisdom of crowds' doesn't work very well without a minimum threshold betting volume.

    I'd be interested in knowing when they open the book on Sochi odds.

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    The favorite? As in putting your money where your mouth is?

    The Las Vegas odds haven't been posted for Sochi yet, but for Vancouver it was:

    Kim1 to 2
    Rochette 11 to 2
    Asada 11/2
    Ando 15/2
    Kostner 16/1

    http://www.thespread.com/sports-bett...s#.UqEkG6WB_wI

    Plushenko 4/9
    Lysacek 8/1
    Lambiel 10/1
    Takahashi 12/1
    Joubert 12/1
    Chan 12/1
    Abbott 14/1

    http://www.thespread.com/sports-bett...s#.UqEj5qWB_wI



    The gap can be reduced in Sochi. The rule was changed. She is the Only lady who can Do three triples in her SP jumping layout.

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    The favorite? As in putting your money where your mouth is?

    The Las Vegas odds haven't been posted for Sochi yet, but for Vancouver it was:

    Kim1 to 2
    Rochette 11 to 2
    Asada 11/2
    Ando 15/2
    Kostner 16/1

    http://www.thespread.com/sports-bett...s#.UqEkG6WB_wI

    Plushenko 4/9
    Lysacek 8/1
    Lambiel 10/1
    Takahashi 12/1
    Joubert 12/1
    Chan 12/1
    Abbott 14/1

    http://www.thespread.com/sports-bett...s#.UqEj5qWB_wI
    Those odds for Plushenko were CRAZY. In no way should he have been that strong a favorite. His skating was nowhere near as strong as 2006, and if everyone skated cleanly it was clear he was likely going to lose (heck Lysacek even beat a cleanish Plushenko and there were ton of guys who could have beaten Evan in Vancouver). I would have still picked him the slight favorite due to the unreliability of the field but those are 2006 esque odds. Crazy, and signs the bookies arent skating experts in this case. Only a fool would have bet on Plushenko at those odds.

  8. #128
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    Also a huge ROTFL at Plushenko being given even better odds to win the mens than Kim the ladies in Vancouver. Proposterous.

  9. #129
    At the rink. Again. mskater93's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chansb View Post
    The gap can be reduced in Sochi. The rule was changed. She is the Only lady who can Do three triples in her SP jumping layout.
    But she's not based upon her current SP layout at GPF.

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    But she's not based upon her current SP layout at GPF.
    And she won't, because if she does a flip-loop she will have to put in one of her weaker triples AND precede it with steps.

  11. #131
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    Kim Yu-Na performances at the Golden Spin:-

    Short Program, Free Skate

    What was that you Kim Ubers were saying about Kim and consistency?

    Probably the worst choreographed long program Kim has had in her entire career. Does not bode well for her Olympic chances

    Another fabulous win today for Mao in the GPF. Olympic favourite - Mao

  12. #132
    Custom Title hurrah's Avatar
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    What's up with Yuna? Maybe she's just lacking the stamina to put in that extra oomph, but she totally looked like she did not want to be out there competing. She looked like it was her own funeral. She's actually looking really thin.

  13. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    What's up with Yuna? Maybe she's just lacking the stamina to put in that extra oomph, but she totally looked like she did not want to be out there competing. She looked like it was her own funeral. She's actually looking really thin.
    Injury set backs always have a knock on effect, but you would not have thought that given what the presumptuous Kim fans have had to say over the last couple of months.

  14. #134
    Long live the Queen! YunaBliss's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mao88 View Post

    Probably the worst choreographed long program Kim has had in her entire career. Does not bode well for her Olympic chances

    Another fabulous win today for Mao in the GPF. Olympic favourite - Mao
    LMAO. You really want to do this?

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    Quote Originally Posted by YunaBliss View Post
    LMAO. You really want to do this?

    LMAO is right...
    Mao88, as a veteran of the site, are you really so unaware of the vapid yuna fans who will hunt you down?

    That being said, I personally was too distracted after the fall to really appreciate any choreography. But, this is the first showing.
    Mao's and others' fs have all grown on me over time and feel FAMILIAR. I am able to catch all the nuances.

    Kim's program I would love to see again before the Olympics. But from what I was getting during her interview, I don't think that'll be happening.

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