Can Adelina Sotnikova overcome the pressure? (Part 2)

merleice · Nov 18, 2013

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
At least Sotnikova has done a clean FS on the senior circuit. Hanyu has yet to do a clean FS ever.

? Hanyu's FS in 2013 worlds and this year's Finlandia Trophy were clean, no? I think for his 1st senior season he had some clean skates too but that programme did not have as ambitious a layout as his later programmes.

Back to topic I hope Adelina can hold it together. I think she's the most complete skater among the Russian girls and would hate to see her buried by the newer girls. I was so happy to see her fight for it and her reaction at the end of her FS at TEB, as I often feel she doesn't yet have the mindset of a competitor, unlike Yagudin or Plushenko. I don't think she should be written off as a head case just because of some inconsistencies; consistently clean performances are very rare. Even Yuna, whom I am a huge fan of and who is seen as a model of consistency nowadays made mistakes (so many times I watched her FS with my heart in my mouth!) but she had more than enough to make up for those mistakes so they never cost her a podium finish.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 18, 2013

Excellent skates but not clean.

2013 Worlds he URed the 4S, while touching down and stepping out.

Finlandia 2013 he touched a hand down on his axel and stepped out of his lutz.

merleice · Nov 18, 2013

You are right. My memory is failing me XD

Sigh. Seems like I always love the brilliant but error prone ones

sky_fly20 · Nov 18, 2013

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
At least Sotnikova has done a clean FS on the senior circuit. Hanyu has yet to do a clean FS ever.

So when Sotnikova does a whaxel she's "such a headcase" to you, but when Hanyu singles a 4S in TEB or singles his lutz in the SKate Canada SP all of a sudden you change your tune. Sotnikova is apparently a headcase on her triple flip even though she landed all her flips at TEB... but Hanyu isn't a headcase to you by failing on his 4S with a fall and a single at his events. At least be consistent!

Both have silver medals in their Grand Prix events. Both have benefited from easy fields this year. Both have made errors in their skates but still medaled. They're more alike than you think, or would care to admit.

Also, you are truly delusional if you think a clean Hanyu (which he hasn't been this season at all) will be on par with a clean Chan. You think Hanyu will get 96.50 points of PCS when his personal best is 85.16 in the FS? Keep dreaming, bud.

Hanyu loses what about 5 points for a fallen 4S
while Sotnikova loses a huge amount from her terrible flip jumping pass combos,

and no thank you, I don't have cotton buds

RobinA · Nov 18, 2013

hippomoomin said:
To be honest, I think Adelina always have very difficult/complicated step sequences and spins that most other top ladies cannot deliver, but those steps are not always matching the music or the esthetics of the skating.
I think as long as she learned not to rush into her jumps, gets more tactical choreography, softens her movements a little, she can be very consistent in her jumps, and be totally awesome. She just has not shown her true potential at the senior level at all.

Not really an Adelina fan - in large part because her skating and the aesthetics of skating rarely intersect.

Skater Boy · Nov 18, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
Yuzu with mistakes is still a medal contender unlike Sotnikova whose bombing is like going on the ice and going to self destruct
a clean Yuzu will score very high almost at par or will level with Chan's score

And sadly Yuzu shouldn't be on par with Chan because his pcs should be lower. Likewise Lipnskayia sould be lower than Carolina's.

Li'Kitsu · Nov 18, 2013

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Both have benefited from easy fields this year.

Hey, I appreciate you trying to get some sense into skyfly when it comes to Adelina (albeit I think you're wasting your time and would be better off talking to a wall...), but I don't think you're right with everything you say about Yuzuru here... what weak fields did he supposedly have? He had to go head to head with Patrick twice already! If SC and TEB had weak fields, what was CoC supposed to be? SA didn't look that much stronger than SC either. NHK looked good on paper, but look at what Javier did in the end... additionally, Yuzuru's score at TEB is by over 10 points the highest 2nd place score so far and he would have easily won CoC with it and nearly tied Machidas and Chans scores from SA and SC respectivly. If you want to talk about someone benefiting from an easy competition, look at Han and Kovtun with CoC...
(But, what I think I have to add: I'm not disagreeing Yuzuru skating bad at SC for his standards. I just don't agree with his supposedly easy fields

)

sky_fly20 · Nov 18, 2013

Skater Boy said:
And sadly Yuzu shouldn't be on par with Chan because his pcs should be lower. Likewise Lipnskayia sould be lower than Carolina's.

your a wishful thinker if you think Yuzu cant have the same PCS as Chan
and you maybe right about Julia for now, but her PCS should still beat skaters like Tuk, Osmond etc whose PCS deserves in the mid 27+ and 57+

flying camel · Nov 18, 2013

I think Anna bought out the best in her. She did not want to lose to her.

Li'Kitsu · Nov 18, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
your a wishful thinker if you think Yuzu cant have the same PCS as Chan

As a big, big Yuzuru fan (and fangirly enough to be all squealy and shaky after seeing him at TEB close enough to pinch his cheeks): what the hell? I hate reading this as a fan of him. Maybe, if he continues to work on his SS and has a program like R&J12 again, someday he will get the same PCS. But not now. I'd say in 100% clean he'd win the TES (as he did in the SP), but not the PCS and not overall.

tulosai · Nov 18, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
no problem, we've seen what happens to Wagner at the end of the season
she'll run out of steam, Gracie Gold is the No.1 US lady sorry

You have been saying this for like 2 years now. Why isn't Gracie number 1 already??? Maybe because she's a bigger 'headcase' than Sotnikova, your 'bash her forever' 'headcase' of choice?

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 18, 2013

Li'Kitsu said:
Hey, I appreciate you trying to get some sense into skyfly when it comes to Adelina (albeit I think you're wasting your time and would be better off talking to a wall...), but I don't think you're right with everything you say about Yuzuru here... what weak fields did he supposedly have? He had to go head to head with Patrick twice already! (But, what I think I have to add: I'm not disagreeing Yuzuru skating bad at SC for his standards. I just don't agree with his supposedly easy fields )

Sorry, I should clarify, I was referring to the field at TEB for Hanyu (where the 3rd place skater didn't attempt any quads and had only 1 triple axel in the FS), and the field at CoC for Sotnikova (where the 3rd place skater landed 2 clean triples in her FS).

By "weak" I mean, not particularly competitive so they were able to nab silver medals. Obviously at Skate Canada, Hanyu had more competition from Oda and almost lost to him, and at TEB Sotnikova had competition from Pogorilaya. I was just pointing out that Hanyu and Sotnikova actually have a lot of similarities to their season with similar successes and problems, however sky_fly seems to think Sotnikova is somehow a headcase when her beloved Hanyu also has his own consistency issues.

I'll reiterate that I love both Hanyu and Sotnikova, and don't think either are headcases. Another similarity is that they're both pushing for very high technical content even though it doesn't pay off (e.g. Sotnikova's 3-3 in the SP and Hanyu's 4S in the LP), but I still give kudos to them for doing that.

drivingmissdaisy · Nov 18, 2013

tulosai said:
You have been saying this for like 2 years now. Why isn't Gracie number 1 already??? Maybe because she's a bigger 'headcase' than Sotnikova, your 'bash her forever' 'headcase' of choice?

But Ashley is "used up" like an old battery, she should be thrown out so Gracie can be the top American. :biggrin:

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 18, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
your a wishful thinker if you think Yuzu cant have the same PCS as Chan

It is impossible for Hanyu to get 96.50 points for PCS even with a clean skate. His personal best is 85.16. At TEB, his PCS was 81.94. No way he can get 95+ points in PCS by Sochi.

Again, Chan and Hanyu both skated as well as they can skate in the TEB short program, and yet, Chan's PCS was 3.5 points higher. That in itself proves that Hanyu can't have the same PCS as Chan.

In the next quadrennial, however, I can picture him eventually clearing 90 points for PCS... if he manages to ever skate a clean long program.

Mirunna · Nov 18, 2013

She can do it. But her team needs to maximize her current potential in order to have the best chances. As of this season, her 2A-3T is huge and gets her a lot of points. I am imagining a layout for her like this:

2A-3T
3F
3Lz
(second part)
2A-3T
3Loop-2T-2T/2L - whatever makes her comfortable
3Loop (and is she misses the first one she can tack the combo here)
3S

In this way: she does only a flip in the LP and 2 3Loop which is a very stable jump for her. Plus, she can make up if she miss the first 3Loop. Then, if she flutzes, she'll get a negative GOE on the solo jump, not for an entire combination. This is a layout which she can skate to, realistically, and go clean. I bet the scores will be huge. I don't know why her team is so fixed on her current layout which hasn't paid off yet.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 18, 2013

Mirunna said:
She can do it. But her team needs to maximize her current potential in order to have the best chances. As of this season, her 2A-3T is huge and gets her a lot of points. I am imagining a layout for her like this:

2A-3T
3F
3Lz
(second part)
2A-3T
3Loop-2T-2T/2L - whatever makes her comfortable
3Loop (and is she misses the first one she can tack the combo here)
3S

In this way: she does only a flip in the LP and 2 3Loop which is a very stable jump for her. Plus, she can make up if she miss the first 3Loop. Then, if she flutzes, she'll get a negative GOE on the solo jump, not for an entire combination. This is a layout which she can skate to, realistically, and go clean. I bet the scores will be huge. I don't know why her team is so fixed on her current layout which hasn't paid off yet.

Her current layout got her a PB in the TEB FS... so I'd say that's paid off. Also, to do two 2A-3T's in a program is asking a lot of a skater. While two 3L's might seem like a good idea on paper, she clearly wants to challenge herself to repeat one of the harder triples, instead of repeat the easy triples.

Mirunna · Nov 18, 2013

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Her current layout got her a PB in the TEB FS... so I'd say that's paid off. Also, to do two 2A-3T's in a program is asking a lot of a skater.

She plans a 3Lz-3Loop and a 2A-3T which I think it's harder and less likely to achieve. I was just thinking she should skate to a layout that can have a back up plan because she plans the 3 jump combo on her second flip: if she misses it, the TES will go downhill, and by some way. She loses around 9-10 points there. At least plan it on the first one: doesn't work out, then go with the second one. This is why skaters usually do their combo first in the SP, to have the possibility to repeat it if something goes wrong with the first jump.
Whatever makes her comfortable, but it must be a smart choice.
A 3L is 5.1 while a 3F is 5.3. The difference is almost nonexistent which she can make up with GOE.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 18, 2013

Some skaters would rather not play it safe as opposed to playing it smart, and evidently she's one of them. It's like her SP where she could score well on a 3Z-2L combo, but opts to try the much less reliable 3Z-3L.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 18, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
Hanyu loses what about 5 points for a fallen 4S
while Sotnikova loses a huge amount from her terrible flip jumping pass combos,

Hanyu loses about 10 points for errors like a singled 4S, like at TEB (arguably his worst 4S attempt ever). Compare that to Sotnikova's combined flip errors at Cup of China (arguably her worst flips attempts ever).

Hanyu's 4S attempt at TEB:
Base value of a 4S = 10.5 points
Base value of a 1S = 0.4 points -- 10.1 points less
After GOE deduction of 0.23 = 0.17 points
So, Hanyu earned 1.6% of the original base value of the 4S (earned 10.33 less).

Sotnikova's flip attempts at CoC:
Base value of 3F and 3F with bonus = 11.13 points
Base value of 2F<< (fall) and 3F with bonus (fall) = 6.33 points, 4.33 points with fall deduction -- 6.8 points less
After total GOE deduction of 2.40 = 1.93 points
So, Sotnikova earned 17.3% of the original base value of two 3F's (earned 9.2 points less).

Clearly, Hanyu's worst error ever on his 4S is much more costly than Sotnikova's worst errors ever on her triple flip attempts.

Let's not also forget that along with singling the 4S at TEB, Hanyu singled his 3A in the LP, and singled 3Z in his SP at Skate Canada. If it was any skater other than Hanyu, you would have immediately labelled them a headcase. :rolleye:

Blades of Passion · Nov 18, 2013

I wish she would get proper credit for her 3Lz+3Lo. At both Japan Open and CoC I don't feel it deserved the < call, and at TEB I would have just given it a < rather than <<.

Can Adelina Sotnikova overcome the pressure? (Part 2)

merleice

CanadianSkaterGuy

merleice

sky_fly20

Match Penalty

RobinA

Skater Boy

Li'Kitsu

sky_fly20

Match Penalty

flying camel

Li'Kitsu

tulosai

CanadianSkaterGuy

drivingmissdaisy

CanadianSkaterGuy

Mirunna

CanadianSkaterGuy

Mirunna

CanadianSkaterGuy

CanadianSkaterGuy

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be

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