Is Wagner's 3-3 combo paying off

She's gotten 3/4 calls this season for clean, that's pretty solid and considered a high percentage (more than 50%). It's still early - Nationals are 2 months away, Olys are 2 1/2 months away. She's right there, just needs to clean up a few things in the program to be in the 130-5 LP range and 69-72 SP range.

I'm not sure she has a choice. Wagner doesn't strike me as the type of skater going to the Olympics for the experience. She clearly wants a medal, Bronze realistically, and she really needs a 3-3 to be in a strong position. If Kostner or Lipnitskaia skated cleanly (or even Gracie Gold, but that seems less likely), Wagner would not have a shot without a 3-3. Obviously if we posit that Wagner skates the best she ever has without a 3-3 and her main competitors falter, than of course it's better without the 3-3, but that's a terrible strategy to have going into the Olympics. It's also important to consider that a solid 3-3 would give her some buffer room in the rest of her program for smaller mistakes.

All that said, if she can't get the 3-3 down, then she should drop it. It's much better for her to skate a clean performance and hope her rivals falter at Oly, then to come in uncertain about your performance and screw up. But it seems way too early for me to be thinking that way. That's something she should decide after the GP final or Nationals if she still can't get it right. I do hope she get it right at the Olympics, I always want ever skater to skate the best they ever have there.

Icey said:

I question coaching that lets an elite skater wait this late in the game to add a 3/3 . I doubt that would have been the case with Shirley or Priscilla.

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I don't think this is a case of a coach telling Ashley in the Olympic season to add a 3-3. Ashley has clearly been working on it for several seasons, and wanted to bring it out last season. I can see how it might have taken her over a year to get it competition-worthy. I like that she's committed to the flip-toe combo, instead of settling for a toe-toe combo, and that's the attitude that makes me root for her. And I'd rather she stick to the 3-3 even with the occasional UR, instead of than backing off and dropping it to be safe.

Icey said:

I question coaching that lets an elite skater wait this late in the game to add a 3/3 . I doubt that would have been the case with Shirley or Priscilla. It disturbs me that her problem with ur's has reappeared. I would suggest racking up points in another way unless she can hit this combo (without a ur) a very high percentage of the time.

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How has that problem with ur "reappeared"? She got that 3flip-3toe combo ratified as fully rotated several times already. Her other jumps were never downgraded (maybe with one or two exceptions).

Icey said:

She got negative goe's in both the short and long with the combo and in the lp she got a total of 3 negative goe's and and an edge call. Not promising as far as an Olympic medal goes.

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Yeah, shame on her for not being totally clean already everytime she skated considering how relatively early we are still in the season.
The edge call for her lutz is, just like for many other skaters who have an edge problem on lutz or flip, obviously not doing to disappear suddenly in an Olympic season.

Hopefully this year will the reverse of last year for Wagner. Last year she was skating perfectly around now, but had already peaked. She isn't skating perfectly now, so hopefully has more room to grow and will peak later on, unlike last year, and unlike last year armed with the almight 3-3 combo.

David21 said:

How has that problem with ur "reappeared"? She got that 3flip-3toe combo ratified as fully rotated several times already. Her other jumps were never downgraded (maybe with one or two exceptions).

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She has competed 3 times this season and if you will check the protocols, you will see she has had a total of 5 ur's.

Icey said:

She has competed 3 times this season and if you will check the protocols, you will see she has had a total of 5 ur's.

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That means she has had 0.8 ur's per skated program. This is not perfect, but not a bad ratio, either.