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Thread: To Reach The Grand Prix Final

  1. #1
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    To Reach The Grand Prix Final

    Men

    Secured - Patrick Chan, Yuzuru Hanyu, Daisuke Takahashi, and Han Yan
    Unsecure - Nobunari Oda (24), Adam Rippon (22)

    Tatsuki Machida (15) - Needs at least a 4th place finish.
    Maxim Kovtun (13) - Needs at least a 2nd place finish, or 3rd and have a higher combined total than 486.16 from both GP assignments.

    If either Machida or Kovtun secures his spot, Javier Fernandez, Richard Dornbush, and Joshua Farris will be locked out.

    Ladies

    Secured - Mao Asada, Ashley Wagner, Anna Pogorilaya, Adelina Sotnikova
    Unsecure - Elena Radionova, Akiko Suzuki

    Julia Lipnitskaia - Needs at least a 4th place finish. [Revised]
    Carolina Kostner - Needs to win, or be in 2nd place with certain conditions (for instance, not having Murakami or Tuktamysheva win and then have Lipnitskaia finish third).

    If both Lipnitskaia and Kostner earn their places, Tuktamsheva and Murakami will be locked out.

    Pairs

    Secured - Volosozhar / Trankov, Pang / Tong, Duhamel / Radford
    Unsecure - Peng / Zhang, Sui / Han, Berton / Hotarek

    Savchenko / Szolkowy - Need at least a 4th place finish.
    Moore Towers / Moscovitch - Need at least 2nd place finish, or be in third with a higher total than 381.51.
    Stolbova / Klimov - Need win, or be in second with a higher total than 381.51.
    Bazarova / Larionov - Need win.

    Ice Dance

    Secured - Davis / White, Virtue / Moir, Pechalat / Bourzat, Cappellini / Lanotte
    Unsecured - Ilinykh / Katsalapov, Shibutani / Shibutani

    Weaver / Poje - Need at least a 2nd place finish.
    Babrova / Soloviev - Need at least a 2nd place finish.
    Chock / Bates - Need to win, or be in a second and have mistakes happen with the two teams above.

  2. #2
    Custom Title demarinis5's Avatar
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    ^Thank you for the breakdown, much appreciated!

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    Yes, thank you so much for this. It's very clear and simple to understand!

  4. #4
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    Agreed! Thanks draqq!

    Quote Originally Posted by caitie View Post
    Yes, thank you so much for this. It's very clear and simple to understand!

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    Quote Originally Posted by draqq View Post
    Carolina Kostner - Needs to win, or be in 2nd place without having Tuktamysheva or Murakami win (and also needs a high total).
    Um... if Kostner finishes 2nd, does it matter who wins the gold? Won't she be left in a tie with Radionova and Suzuki on both 24 points and best placing (2nd)? And needing over 200 points to win the next tie-breaker (combined scores)?

    Quote Originally Posted by draqq View Post
    Julia Lipnitskaia - Needs at least a 3rd place finish. Can come in 4th but needs other skaters to do terribly.
    I'm not understanding this one either. If Lipnitskaia finishes 4th... does she need other skaters to do badly? Won't whoever wins, leave all the others - at best - with 24 points, and a best placing of 2nd? Julia would also have 24 points but go through on the first tie-breaker, with her best placing of 1st?

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    I thought first and 4th place better than second and third. If Lipnitskaia finish 4th, I think she will be ahead of Radionova and Suzuki. Both Kostner, Tuktamisheva and Murakami can't win so I think she is safe with 4th place. If Kostner win she and Julia will go to GPF. If Murakami/Tuktamisheva win she will go again with 4th place. Because Kostner can't make with 2th and 3rd.

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    Custom Title FSGMT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YesWay View Post
    Um... if Kostner finishes 2nd, does it matter who wins the gold? Won't she be left in a tie with Radionova and Suzuki on both 24 points and best placing (2nd)? And needing over 200 points to win the next tie-breaker (combined scores)?

    I'm not understanding this one either. If Lipnitskaia finishes 4th... does she need other skaters to do badly? Won't whoever wins, leave all the others - at best - with 24 points, and a best placing of 2nd? Julia would also have 24 points but go through on the first tie-breaker, with her best placing of 1st?
    You're absolutely righ! And, since I don't see Julia/Kanako/Liza scoring 200+ here, if Caro scores 200+ (REALLY unlikely) she probably wins, so basically, if she wants to go to the GPF she has to win this event

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    Quote Originally Posted by FSGMT View Post
    You're absolutely righ! And, since I don't see Julia/Kanako/Liza scoring 200+ here, if Caro scores 200+ (REALLY unlikely) she probably wins, so basically, if she wants to go to the GPF she has to win this event
    Realistically there are three scenarios for the ladies:

    1) Caro win, Julia top 4 or better: Caro and Julia go to GPF
    2) Julia top 4, Caro 2nd or lower: Elena and Julia go
    3) Caro 2nd or lower, Julia bombs badly: Elena and Akiko go. (Unless Liza or Kanako win, then they replace Akiko)

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    If the event goes Murakami/Tuktamysheva, Kostner, and Lipnitskaia, then they would all have 26 points, but Murakami/Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaia would go ahead of Kostner because they both would have won an event and Kostner would have not.

    You're right with Lipnitskaia. She can finish 4th and it will still guarantee her a spot.

  10. #10
    ♥ My Mirai's Golden Pond ♥ Sasha'sSpins's Avatar
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    Thank you draqq for the breakdown! Much appreciated!

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