To Reach The Grand Prix Final
Secured - Patrick Chan, Yuzuru Hanyu, Daisuke Takahashi, and Han Yan
Unsecure - Nobunari Oda (24), Adam Rippon (22)
Tatsuki Machida (15) - Needs at least a 4th place finish.
Maxim Kovtun (13) - Needs at least a 2nd place finish, or 3rd and have a higher combined total than 486.16 from both GP assignments.
If either Machida or Kovtun secures his spot, Javier Fernandez, Richard Dornbush, and Joshua Farris will be locked out.
Secured - Mao Asada, Ashley Wagner, Anna Pogorilaya, Adelina Sotnikova
Unsecure - Elena Radionova, Akiko Suzuki
Julia Lipnitskaia - Needs at least a 4th place finish. [Revised]
Carolina Kostner - Needs to win, or be in 2nd place with certain conditions (for instance, not having Murakami or Tuktamysheva win and then have Lipnitskaia finish third).
If both Lipnitskaia and Kostner earn their places, Tuktamsheva and Murakami will be locked out.
Secured - Volosozhar / Trankov, Pang / Tong, Duhamel / Radford
Unsecure - Peng / Zhang, Sui / Han, Berton / Hotarek
Savchenko / Szolkowy - Need at least a 4th place finish.
Moore Towers / Moscovitch - Need at least 2nd place finish, or be in third with a higher total than 381.51.
Stolbova / Klimov - Need win, or be in second with a higher total than 381.51.
Bazarova / Larionov - Need win.
Secured - Davis / White, Virtue / Moir, Pechalat / Bourzat, Cappellini / Lanotte
Unsecured - Ilinykh / Katsalapov, Shibutani / Shibutani
Weaver / Poje - Need at least a 2nd place finish.
Babrova / Soloviev - Need at least a 2nd place finish.
Chock / Bates - Need to win, or be in a second and have mistakes happen with the two teams above.
^Thank you for the breakdown, much appreciated!
Yes, thank you so much for this. It's very clear and simple to understand!
Agreed! Thanks draqq!
Originally Posted by caitie
Um... if Kostner finishes 2nd, does it matter who wins the gold? Won't she be left in a tie with Radionova and Suzuki on both 24 points and best placing (2nd)? And needing over 200 points to win the next tie-breaker (combined scores)?
Originally Posted by draqq
I'm not understanding this one either. If Lipnitskaia finishes 4th... does she need other skaters to do badly? Won't whoever wins, leave all the others - at best - with 24 points, and a best placing of 2nd? Julia would also have 24 points but go through on the first tie-breaker, with her best placing of 1st?
Originally Posted by draqq
I thought first and 4th place better than second and third. If Lipnitskaia finish 4th, I think she will be ahead of Radionova and Suzuki. Both Kostner, Tuktamisheva and Murakami can't win so I think she is safe with 4th place. If Kostner win she and Julia will go to GPF. If Murakami/Tuktamisheva win she will go again with 4th place. Because Kostner can't make with 2th and 3rd.
You're absolutely righ! And, since I don't see Julia/Kanako/Liza scoring 200+ here, if Caro scores 200+ (REALLY unlikely) she probably wins, so basically, if she wants to go to the GPF she has to win this event
Originally Posted by YesWay
Realistically there are three scenarios for the ladies:
Originally Posted by FSGMT
1) Caro win, Julia top 4 or better: Caro and Julia go to GPF
2) Julia top 4, Caro 2nd or lower: Elena and Julia go
3) Caro 2nd or lower, Julia bombs badly: Elena and Akiko go. (Unless Liza or Kanako win, then they replace Akiko)
If the event goes Murakami/Tuktamysheva, Kostner, and Lipnitskaia, then they would all have 26 points, but Murakami/Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaia would go ahead of Kostner because they both would have won an event and Kostner would have not.
You're right with Lipnitskaia. She can finish 4th and it will still guarantee her a spot.
Thank you draqq for the breakdown! Much appreciated!