Is Wagner's 3-3 combo paying off
It seems Wagner made a concerted effort to master some 3-3 combos for this season. Yet it doesn't seem to be helping her. Last year her best LP scores were in the high 120s. I am sure she thought by pushing the technical envelope more she could crack into the 130s. Yet she isn't scoring any better than she was this time last season despite now doing atleast one 3-3 in each LP. She still cant come close to cracking 130, which Julia with her tiny jumps and only moderately good PCS is even doing. Was it even worth the effort and it is going to pay off for her at any point.
Maybe if she skates clean? She nearly fell on her 2nd flip today and her 3-3 was two-footed on both jumps. At Skate America, her spin levels suffered and she had some other jump errors. She's not that far away from 130.
True, she hasn't really skated cleanly yet. I guess one question though is she could skate cleanly without a 3-3 combo. Can she skate cleanly with one? As of yet she has stood up, but has had lots of small, niggling errors with the extra focus on a 3-3 combo.
Originally Posted by CarneAsada
I wonder if she will add one in the short program. That would bring a more definite reward, and yet a higher risk too.
Also if Kostner keeps skating like this she can win the bronze without a 3-3 combo, and even with one she cannot hope to come close to Kim or Asada in Sochi unless they bomb. Is the reward worth the risk, especialy as of yet it isn't helping her scores at all.
Are we still talking about Wagner? Wagner did the 3F-3T in the short at both SA and TEB. The TEB combo was called <, though she did win the short.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
Kostner isn't the only threat though. Julia is consistent and always skates with full difficulty. Wagner with no 3-3 probably won't beat her in Sochi.
I don't think we will know if it was worth it until the end of the season. In the past she has tried to put the elements in her programs too late in the year and never nailed them. This season, she is 3/4 in her attempts and has improved her UR and spin issues from Skate America. If she is clean with her 7 triple long she can score ~135 with the kind of PCS she got today.
That would probably almost ensure her the bronze in Sochi, if she did a very strong SP with it. I am almost certain Asada will be either silver or gold the way things look now (and obviously Kim will be also).
Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy
...not to mention the confidence that having the combination lends her. Simply having the combination in her repertoire has serious psychological repercussions, as it has opened the door to having programs that allow her to even be in the discussion. She skates with such confidence and I am glad to see it. I think for this reason it is definitely worth it for her.
I agree. She is going for it at every program and yes while she made a few mistakes, she did not let up until the very end.
Originally Posted by pista04
She scored 128+ last year with a nearly perfect program and no 3-3. This time around she got 127+ with a step out and some other errors, so when clean, she is going to get a higher score.
Tripping on the Podium
Absolutely it's worth it for Wagner to have the 3-3. If she didn't, people would dog her all season long for not being at the level of the other contenders, and while she might still be able to rack up points with a clean skate minus the 3-3, I think if she weren't to even attempt it her reputation would suffer. And perhaps that slight hit would show up in a reluctance to award as much in PCS or GOEs. I don't think she's being necessarily gifted with scores this season, but I do think she's earned favor with judges and is more likely to get the benefit of the doubt in close calls.
This is the hilariousness of those criticizing her for including it. She's darned if she includes it, and she's darned if she doesn't. I say kudos to her for going for it.
Originally Posted by penguin
She needs it to contend for the podium. She could skate cleanly with an easier layout, but then would have to depend on other bronze-pushers messing up.
It's simple - if she wants to be taken seriously as a contender, it's a must.
She took the safe route last year and got nowhere fast. So this year, she's attempting to up the ante. This is the right thing for her to do. If she wants a medal in Sochi (or at any Worlds for that matter), it's a virtual requirement, as she herself has said many times.
It's necessary, but I feel like her skating skills (sometimes mediocre) and rather juvenile, simplistic choreography for her long program this year definitely are not helping her. I like Ashley Wagner a lot and think she has some good qualities as a skater, but just comparing her skating skills (smoothness of the jumps, complexity and quality of the transitions, deepness of the edges) with someone way more junior like Anna Pogorilaya reveals the extent to which Ashley's overall abilities as a skater are somewhat lower than her main competition. I wish her the best, but I don't think her 3-3 combination is going to be enough to stand up to the skating skills of the best ladies.
I always thought If Mirai went to 3lutz+3toe before the Olympics, maybe US Federation and judges start to thinking her as a contender for Olympic medal. You can see her Olympic PCS (26) and World PCS.(30)
Skating is art, if you let it be.
Ashley's 3-3 is underrotated every single time, but the tech panels aren't paying attention to the pre-rotation. As long as she does it smoothly, they will apparently give her full credit.
It pays off in the SP either way. A clean 3Flip+3Toe< is worth more points technically than 3Flip+2Toe (although unfortunately not more than 3Flip+2Loop, if the judges stupidly give -GOE just because of the < call) and you get a PCS boost simply for having it.
In the LP, I don't think it's worth it even if she doesn't get the < call. That combo takes extra energy and is causing her to miss other elements in the program. Like I've told her for 3 years now, she would be better off forgetting about this type of combo in the LP and going for a highly backloaded jump layout (only the 3-jump combo and 3Sal in the first half of the program), with 3Flip+2Loop+2Loop, 3Loop+2Axel, and 3Toe+2Axel as her combination jumps.
Such a jump layout would only be worth 0.15 less in base value than her current plan. That's nothing at all! If she were to get the same GOE scores on all the jumping passes, the layout without a 3-3 actually comes out .05 HIGHER because all of her jumping passes would include a Triple, which means they all get +.7 for the GOE grades, rather than just +.5 on the solo 2Axel she currently does.
She would be more consistent without the 3-3 in the LP and still be able to score just as high. Think about that a couple times.
She has guts!
I am impressed about how aggressively she has gone after the 3-3. It seems one of the main things about extending difficulty is not being intimidated. I´ve seen other skaters creep up on the 3-3 or quad - hard to succeed like that. Wagner just throws it in there and consistently - doesn´t chickn out.
Originally Posted by pista04
2 1/2 months to go. I´m sure she will work like the devil to get that last litle bit of problem straightened out and get the full score. (PS - I felt so bad for Christina yesterday)