Should Ashley skip the GPF

FlattFan said:

A implies B doesn't mean C implies B.
Ashley has no chance in Sochi if she lose to either Russians in the GPF. That's the reality.
Someone like Carolina or Mao or Yuna would still have all kind of chances in Sochi even if they lose to the Russians in the GPF.

Click to expand...

Seriously? No chance? And what if Ashley skates cleanly in Sochi and the Russians don't? There are so many variables that could affect the outcome.

FlattFan said:

Joannie was a reigning silver medalist. Joannie would be skating on home soil at the Olympics.

Click to expand...

In the 05-06 season, Carolina was the reigning world bronze medalist, who would be skating on home soil at the Olympics. She came 3rd at Europeans in Estonia, ahead of Meier, and then placed behind Meier in Turin on her home ice... she had also beat Suguri and Arakawa at Worlds - and you can imagine people like you would have said there's no chance for them to beat Kostner in Turin, and yet they placed well ahead of her.

You have yet to say what makes you so sure that if Ashley loses at the GPF she will undoubtedly get beaten by them in Sochi. There's no guarantee that the Russians will even skate well in Sochi or succumb to home ice pressure. I'm trying to figure out your logic here.

FlattFan said:

Ashley has no chance in Sochi if she lose to either Russians in the GPF. That's the reality.
Someone like Carolina or Mao or Yuna would still have all kind of chances in Sochi even if they lose to the Russians in the GPF.

Click to expand...

How is that the reality? Ashley's PCS has been slowly improving for 3 years due to consistent results. One bad event is absolutely not going to undo three years of progression. Julia will not beat Ashley this year if both skate clean, regardless of what happens at the GPF. Yuna, Mao, Carolina, Akiko, Ashley, Gracie, Kanako, Adelina, and even Elena R all have a better artistic reputations than Julia and Anna so I'm not sure why Ashley would be singled out as all of a sudden going from the 4th highest PCS in the world to outside the top 10 if she doesn't beat Julia at the GPF.

No, I don't think the official skating community would look on that kindly. She needs to compete as much as she can, get feed back and see what she needs to do to increase her score against the other ladies.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

In the 05-06 season, Carolina was the reigning world bronze medalist, who would be skating on home soil at the Olympics. She came 3rd at Europeans in Estonia, ahead of Meier, and then placed behind Meier in Turin on her home ice... she had also beat Suguri and Arakawa at Worlds - and you can imagine people like you would have said there's no chance for them to beat Kostner in Turin, and yet they placed well ahead of her.

You have yet to say what makes you so sure that if Ashley loses at the GPF she will undoubtedly get beaten by them in Sochi. There's no guarantee that the Russians will even skate well in Sochi or succumb to home ice pressure. I'm trying to figure out your logic here.

Click to expand...

Here's the logic.
Arakawa/Suguri are world medalists who are very good themselves.
Arakawa at her best is the best in the world. Even if she's slumming, she can still beat anyone. Same logic applies today, even if Mao/Carolina/Yuna slum terribly at the GPF, if they can put it together, they will still beat the Russians in Sochi.
Logic hasn't changed there at all. You seemed to be confused.

Now, the Russian girls, if they only landed 1 or 2 triples in Sochi, everyone, including one of the Helgelson sisters, will beat them.
This is not about who's beating who when they land 1 or 2 triples.

This is about these skaters skating to their normal ability. Don't conflate all the issues. It's not that complicated.

drivingmissdaisy said:

How is that the reality? Ashley's PCS has been slowly improving for 3 years due to consistent results. One bad event is absolutely not going to undo three years of progression. Julia will not beat Ashley this year if both skate clean, regardless of what happens at the GPF.

Click to expand...

If Julia beat Ashley at GPF, game over for Ashley.

You think that if both are clean at Sochi, Julia would lose to Ashley? That's delusional thinking.
The judges will go with her, especially when she just beat Ashley at the GPF.

FlattFan said:

You think that if both are clean at Sochi, Julia would lose to Ashley? That's delusional thinking.

Click to expand...

Julia's PCS is ~60 perfectly clean. Ashley's is 65+ with a glaring error. Neither of these scores were at home. Julia would have to leapfrog a number of girls to get PCS higher than Ashley. You do realize they are in different ballparks at this point right?

So do you think Julia clean would score 66 in PCS or Ashley clean would drop down to about 59? One of these would need to happen for the "delusional" scenario not to occur.

Of course a clean Ashley would beat a clean Julia. Ashley's scores for her current performances indicate clean she would go over 130 for sure, and a perfect Julia at Skate Canada only managed 130. Ashley would crush Julia in PCS. Julia's only real edge would be spins, but would not make up the PCS gap. LOL at Flattfan of all people calling others beliefs delusional.

flying camel said:

I think she should skip it. It's not as prestigious as it once was.

Click to expand...

Well, if you're going to put it that way, the World Championships isn't as prestigious as it once was either--depending on what part of the world you're in.

I agree with everyone who says not to. Ashley's a competitor through and through. It's immensely difficult for me to imagine that she wouldn't go for the sake of the competition "lacking" prestige. It's good experience too.

FlattFan said:

If Julia beat Ashley at GPF, game over for Ashley.

You think that if both are clean at Sochi, Julia would lose to Ashley? That's delusional thinking.
The judges will go with her, especially when she just beat Ashley at the GPF.

Click to expand...

The judges will mark independently of the GPF. And a clean Ashley would certainly best a clean Julia. You only have to look at their PCS scores. Ashley will also likely trounce Julia on GOE with her bigger jumps.

The reality is, whether the GPF or Sochi, at this point, the Russians need to rely on Ashley to make errors to surpass her. Even on home ice their PCS scores aren't going to magically shoot up.

Wagner is so overrated. I'll give her that she is very well packaged, but if you take the package apart, her content is mediocre at best, her long program planned BV being in the very middle of the mid-range and that's without any UR call; her jumps are not particularly big; her spins are mediocre; her programs this year are forgettable and her skating skills is absolutely the worst among top ladies. The only thing going for her is that she is currently North America No.1 as Rochette was four years agoIf anything, Wagner is the one who has to go to GPF to embody that image. Julia and Adelina will definitely catch up PCS-wise.

To answer the OP question, absolutely not. Ashley is the only American who qualified for the GPF and considering how well she's been doing on the GP this season, she's a favorite for a medal coming in.

I fully disagree with the notion that a clean Ashley will lose to a clean Julia. That will not happen. As Drivingmissdaisy pointed out, Julia got just over 60 in PCS with a 100% clean program...Ashley got 65+ with errors. Julia is very good from a technical standpoint but she doesn't earn much GOE on her jumps (nor should she) and she does not come close to the top ladies in terms of presence, command, interpretation, etc. She's gotten better this year but she's not at Ashley's level.

There's a hierarchy in PCS. Looking at the potential contenders for the Final: Julia, Elena and Anna are in that 3rd tier (59-62), Ashley is in the 2nd tier with Adelina (63-67) and Mao and Carolina are in that top tier (68+). If Julia has another spotless performance I think her 60 will go up a point or so, but she won't top 65+, nor should she at this point.

Besides, Ashley is doing fine this year. I feel like she's doing a better job of pacing herself than she did last year where she was very close to perfect at SA and perfect at TEB. By the time she got to the Final she'd already peaked. This year she's slowly building and improving; she hasn't had that perfect performance yet in either program. Her SP at SA was close but she didn't have the levels...her FS at TEB was an improvement over SA but she had a few mistakes.

Point is Ashley hasn't hit her ceiling yet and that's a great thing IMO. I agree about her R&J not being the exclamation point Black Swan or S&D was but it's getting better and will continue to score well.

I don't know why people are doubting Ashley all of a sudden. Unless Mao tanks I don't think Ashley will win, but a silver medal would be great and position her very well heading into Sochi...I think she'll be fine.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

The judges will mark independently of the GPF. And a clean Ashley would certainly best a clean Julia. You only have to look at their PCS scores. Ashley will also likely trounce Julia on GOE with her bigger jumps.

The reality is, whether the GPF or Sochi, at this point, the Russians need to rely on Ashley to make errors to surpass her. Even on home ice their PCS scores aren't going to magically shoot up.

Click to expand...

A clean Ashley? Like a clean clean with 3x3? That will not happen.
A clean conservative Ashley will not beat a clean Julia either.

Guess which scenario is more likely to happen?
A clean 7 triples Julia
A clean 7 triples Ashley
A clean 6 triples Ashley

Julia will beat Ashley at the GPF most likely. By Sochi time, it is impossible for Ashley to beat her again. Skating on home ice with 7 triples vs. a second tier skater who most likely will never be able to have a clean 7 triples LP. Yeah, slam dunk.

FlattFan said:

A clean Ashley? Like a clean clean with 3x3? That will not happen.

Click to expand...

Well your argument was that a clean Julia would be a clean Ashley, and the 3/3 is part of her program now so she is going for 7. No one is saying Julia can't beat Ashley, just that Ashley would have to not skate her best for that to happen. Whatever happens at the GPF won't change the fact that Ashley will still get better PCS than Adelina, Kanako, Elena R, and a few others, and all of them will get better PCS than Julia. There is only upside for Ashley competing at the GPF because she has yet to go clean and establish her PCS ceiling with a flawless program.

kwanatic said:

There's a hierarchy in PCS. Looking at the potential contenders for the Final: Julia, Elena and Anna are in that 3rd tier (59-62), Ashley is in the 2nd tier with Adelina (63-67) and Mao and Carolina are in that top tier (68+). If Julia has another spotless performance I think her 60 will go up a point or so, but she won't top 65+, nor should she at this point.

Click to expand...

Kim is mostly definitely in the top tier in PCS as well. Even with a flawed performance I am sure the judges would dole out a 68+. Usually in fact she is another level up from Kostner and Asada in PCS in fact (although Kostner was competitive with her in PCS at Worlds for perhaps the first time ever).

Kwanatic was only speaking of skaters who will potentially make the final.

Ashley and Julia are vying for the silver, right? Mao will win gold even if she makes mistakes. I think Ashley will win the silver if she doesn't fall or pop any of her jumps. An UR on the 3-3 won't hurt her that much. Julia will lose because her PCS will be lower.

mskater93 said:

Kwanatic was only speaking of skaters who will potentially make the final.

Click to expand...

Indeed, had she included all skaters Akiko would also be in that second tier.

mskater93 said:

Kwanatic was only speaking of skaters who will potentially make the final.

Click to expand...

Yep, I was referring to skaters who are in the conversation for making the GPF this year. Obviously Yu-Na is in the top tier of PCS...she's almost in her own tier to be honest...

jenaj said:

Ashley and Julia are vying for the silver, right? Mao will win gold even if she makes mistakes. I think Ashley will win the silver if she doesn't fall or pop any of her jumps. An UR on the 3-3 won't hurt her that much. Julia will lose because her PCS will be lower.

Click to expand...

Agreed. FlattFan is starting to sound a little bit like Sky_fly, who often makes assertions with absolute certainty despite the fact no one can know how these thing will turn out for sure. We don't even know what position Julia will qualify in yet. There's no guarantee she'll win COR, especially if Carolina gets back to form.

drivingmissdaisy said:

Indeed, had she included all skaters Akiko would also be in that second tier.

Click to expand...

Right again

kwanatic said:

Agreed. FlattFan is starting to sound a little bit like Sky_fly, who often makes assertions with absolute certainty despite the fact no one can know how these thing will turn out for sure. We don't even know what position Julia will qualify in yet. There's no guarantee she'll win COR, especially if Carolina gets back to form.

Click to expand...

This is Russia. Once they have a viable candidate for the medal they will push them all the way to the top.
Look at her SP score. Look at her GOE on her jumps. Look at the way her PCS is rising.

Do you think Ashley can beat her even if Ashley is pristine clean?

By GPF, her PCS will rise further. If Ashley can't stop Julia by GPF, there is 0% in Sochi. This is just logic.