Should Ashley skip the GPF

noskates · Nov 18, 2013

I was very impressed with Ashley's skate at TEB. Generally I feel she skates kind of robotically but you could tell she was "in it to win it" and I really enjoyed her performance. The fact that she went out and did the triple/triple in the SP even when she really didn't need it was exemplar. I don't know who is going to win the US Nats, and I do like Gracie, but at this moment in time I'm hoping Ashley will come out strong and send a message. I think she can medal at the Olys because she's pretty consistent and she's definitely motivated.

Have said before - am NOT a fan of Kostner.

drivingmissdaisy · Nov 19, 2013

skateluvr said:
Ashley unfortunately has a weaker LP artistically than last two years.

I agree, but the PCS marks reflect overall reputation and content (transitions) than the quality of the program itself. Her program is good enough to compete for bronze and she is getting better PCS than ever before. I wish she had this program 2 years ago and Black Swan now.

daphna · Nov 19, 2013

Ashley needs any of the big comps possible before Sochi. She's just sub 200 and a dark horse for a medal, she has to go to the olympics 100% prepared. she can only skip 4CC this season, IMO.

FlattFan · Nov 19, 2013

If she goes to GPF and lose to both Pogo and Lip, her rep would tank. When Sochi comes around, it would be 0% chance for Ashley to beat Lip at that point. I guarantee it.

You lose to Lip in Japan, you will lose to Lip in Sochi.

daphna · Nov 19, 2013

Ashley will probably finish 2nd or 3rd (all depends on how Mao will do) which is totally respectable. To beat the big guns you have to compete against them, and it'ss be a very bad move to meet Lip for the first time in sochi.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 19, 2013

FlattFan said:
If she goes to GPF and lose to both Pogo and Lip, her rep would tank. When Sochi comes around, it would be 0% chance for Ashley to beat Lip at that point. I guarantee it.

You lose to Lip in Japan, you will lose to Lip in Sochi.

Also, she will still give Lip a run for her money -- look at the errors she made in TEB and still ended up only 3 points shy of Lipnitskaia's PB. In the SP, Wagner's combo was URed, and yet she scored essentially the same as Lip's SP at Skate Canada. Note that Wagner's PCS in her flawed TEB freeskate is 5 points higher than Lipnitskaia's perfect SC freeskate (and Ashley had a 3-point PCS edge if we're talking short programs).

Like Mao, Wagner will only lose to Lip if she messes up, and controlling your own destiny is a good position to be in going into the GPF, rather than having to skate perfectly and hope others make errors which is what Julia/Pogorilaya will have to do.

Mao88 · Nov 19, 2013

flying camel said:
I think she should skip it. It's not as prestigious as it once was. Can an athlete skip if they want? I think she should concentrate on improving her programs and resting up for the rest of the season.

We have seen over the years that toward the end of the season Ashley starts to run out of gas. I want her to take a small break and be fresh for Nationals and the Olympics.

The GPF is still as prestigious as ever it was. After all, the top skaters spend the first half of the season trying to qualify for it. Of course Ashley should compete in it.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 19, 2013

Mao88 said:
The GPF is still as prestigious as ever it was. After all, the top skaters spend the first half of the season trying to qualify for it. Of course Ashley should compete in it.

Other than Worlds (and Olympics) the GPF is the only event where all the best in the world compete together. Of course it's prestigious. It also gives a huge boost to a skater's ranking if they make it there, as far as I know.

LiamForeman · Nov 19, 2013

She absolutely needs to go if she wants a shot at an Olympic medal. By competing at the GPF she will show she is up there with the 'big girls', and if she skates well it will set her up for the Olys. Plus her programs haven't really gelled and another competition will do her good.

drivingmissdaisy · Nov 19, 2013

FlattFan said:
If she goes to GPF and lose to both Pogo and Lip, her rep would tank. When Sochi comes around, it would be 0% chance for Ashley to beat Lip at that point. I guarantee it.

You lose to Lip in Japan, you will lose to Lip in Sochi.

No she won't lose her reputation. Did Mao, Caro, or even Kanako lose their reputation when they had mediocre competitions?

It is up to Ashley how she skates. She's going to have a comfortable PCS cushion over Julia so she just has to execute her elements. If she makes too many errors, Julia can certainly top her.

KwanIsALegend · Nov 19, 2013

Every competition is experience, I think every time a skater goes out and compete he/she gets more confidence and becomes more comfortable with their programs and skating. I think it would look bad if Ashley withdrew, it is an honor to qualify for the GPF.

MasterB · Nov 19, 2013

ABSOLUTELY Not,

Japan can pack arenas like no other place in the world. It will be good practice to do another international run before the Olympics.

Tinymavy15 · Nov 19, 2013

A medal at the GPF would set her up well for a medal in Sochi. This is what Ashley's been after, I don't see her withdrawing unless there a major injury.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 19, 2013

drivingmissdaisy said:
No she won't lose her reputation. Did Mao, Caro, or even Kanako lose their reputation when they had mediocre competitions?

It is up to Ashley how she skates. She's going to have a comfortable PCS cushion over Julia so she just has to execute her elements. If she makes too many errors, Julia can certainly top her.

If anything, her reputation would drop if she chose not to go.

FlattFan · Nov 19, 2013

Not the same. Mao and Caro can have mediocre competitions as much as they want. They are top dogs, if they can come back to form, they will be top dogs.

Ashley's real competitors are the Julias and the Pogos. If she lose to Julia or Pogo in Japan, she really has no chance in Sochi. This is situation specific. As soon as the Russians establish themselves, Ashley would have no chance of beating them because right now, they are about equal when it come to scoring potential and running for 3rd or 4th place.

Ashley has never crack 130 in her life. The Russian girls already got there. Losing to either one at the GPF would be the end of her medal hunt. GPF will determine whether Ashley has any chance in Sochi.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 20, 2013

FlattFan said:
Ashley has never crack 130 in her life. The Russian girls already got there. Losing to either one at the GPF would be the end of her medal hunt. GPF will determine whether Ashley has any chance in Sochi.

Adelina hasn't cracked 130. Pogo hasn't cracked 130. Julia's total score has surpassed 130 once, incidentally the only time she beat Ashley's PB, although we'll see what happens at Rostelcom.

Julia's program is a minefield where one error immediately removes her out of the 130 equation. Her PB is 131 with a perfect skate. Wagner scored 127 at TEB in spite of errors.

To say Ashley has no chance in Sochi if one of her competitors happens to beat her at GPF is pretty short-sighted. Joannie Rochette came 5th at the GPF two months before the Olympics - placing behind Wagner, Suzuki, and Ando - whom she all defeated for the Olympic bronze.

CarneAsada · Nov 20, 2013

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Adelina hasn't cracked 130. Pogo hasn't cracked 130. Julia's total score has surpassed 130 once, incidentally the only time she beat Ashley's PB, although we'll see what happens at Rostelcom.

Julia's program is a minefield where one error immediately removes her out of the 130 equation. Her PB is 131 with a perfect skate. Wagner scored 127 at TEB in spite of errors.

To say Ashley has no chance in Sochi if one of her competitors happens to beat her is pretty short-sighted. Joannie Rochette came 5th in the GPF two months before the Olympics, placing behind Wagner, Suzuki, and Ando, whom she all defeated for the Olympic bronze.

Yes, but Joannie went from Japan to Canada (and she didn't beat Wagner directly), while Ashley is going from Japan to Russia. Joannie was easily beating Ando the previous year and merely lost due to a disastrous skate. Wagner is nearly maxed out on her FS score, and it's not much higher than Julia's.

Jammers · Nov 20, 2013

The Ladies competition in Sochi is looking rather underwhelming after what we've seen so far this season. Kostner and Murakami looking bad at COC Gracie looking mediocre so far and Yuna not even competing. I just hope the level of skating improves in the next month and a half.

CarneAsada · Nov 20, 2013

Jammers said:
The Ladies competition in Sochi is looking rather underwhelming after what we've seen so far this season. Kostner and Murakami looking bad at COC Gracie looking mediocre so far and Yuna not even competing. I just hope the level of skating improves in the next month and a half.

I'm pretty sure it will improve as the level of skating on the GP circuit 4 years ago was scarcely better and yet the ladies were great in Vancouver.

FlattFan · Nov 20, 2013

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Adelina hasn't cracked 130. Pogo hasn't cracked 130. Julia's total score has surpassed 130 once, incidentally the only time she beat Ashley's PB, although we'll see what happens at Rostelcom.

Julia's program is a minefield where one error immediately removes her out of the 130 equation. Her PB is 131 with a perfect skate. Wagner scored 127 at TEB in spite of errors.

To say Ashley has no chance in Sochi if one of her competitors happens to beat her at GPF is pretty short-sighted. Joannie Rochette came 5th at the GPF two months before the Olympics - placing behind Wagner, Suzuki, and Ando - whom she all defeated for the Olympic bronze.

A implies B doesn't mean C implies B.

Joannie was a reigning silver medalist. Joannie would be skating on home soil at the Olympics.

Just because Joannie messed up in the GPF preceding the Olympics and still became a contender at the Olympics doesn't mean Ashley can afford the same luxury. Other variables come in the equation here.

Ashley has no chance in Sochi if she lose to either Russians in the GPF. That's the reality.
Someone like Carolina or Mao or Yuna would still have all kind of chances in Sochi even if they lose to the Russians in the GPF.

Should Ashley skip the GPF

noskates

drivingmissdaisy

daphna

FlattFan

Match Penalty

daphna

CanadianSkaterGuy

Mao88

CanadianSkaterGuy

LiamForeman

William/Uilyam

drivingmissdaisy

KwanIsALegend

Fly On

MasterB

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

CanadianSkaterGuy

FlattFan

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CanadianSkaterGuy

CarneAsada

Jammers

CarneAsada

FlattFan

Match Penalty

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