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Thread: Should Ashley skip the GPF

  1. #31
    D*mn Idiot KwanIsALegand's Avatar
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    Every competition is experience, I think every time a skater goes out and compete he/she gets more confidence and becomes more comfortable with their programs and skating. I think it would look bad if Ashley withdrew, it is an honor to qualify for the GPF.

  2. #32
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    ABSOLUTELY Not,

    Japan can pack arenas like no other place in the world. It will be good practice to do another international run before the Olympics.

  3. #33
    Beliver in Sasha's Perfect Program Tinymavy15's Avatar
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    A medal at the GPF would set her up well for a medal in Sochi. This is what Ashley's been after, I don't see her withdrawing unless there a major injury.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    No she won't lose her reputation. Did Mao, Caro, or even Kanako lose their reputation when they had mediocre competitions?

    It is up to Ashley how she skates. She's going to have a comfortable PCS cushion over Julia so she just has to execute her elements. If she makes too many errors, Julia can certainly top her.
    If anything, her reputation would drop if she chose not to go.

  5. #35
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    Not the same. Mao and Caro can have mediocre competitions as much as they want. They are top dogs, if they can come back to form, they will be top dogs.

    Ashley's real competitors are the Julias and the Pogos. If she lose to Julia or Pogo in Japan, she really has no chance in Sochi. This is situation specific. As soon as the Russians establish themselves, Ashley would have no chance of beating them because right now, they are about equal when it come to scoring potential and running for 3rd or 4th place.

    Ashley has never crack 130 in her life. The Russian girls already got there. Losing to either one at the GPF would be the end of her medal hunt. GPF will determine whether Ashley has any chance in Sochi.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Ashley has never crack 130 in her life. The Russian girls already got there. Losing to either one at the GPF would be the end of her medal hunt. GPF will determine whether Ashley has any chance in Sochi.
    Adelina hasn't cracked 130. Pogo hasn't cracked 130. Julia's total score has surpassed 130 once, incidentally the only time she beat Ashley's PB, although we'll see what happens at Rostelcom.

    Julia's program is a minefield where one error immediately removes her out of the 130 equation. Her PB is 131 with a perfect skate. Wagner scored 127 at TEB in spite of errors.

    To say Ashley has no chance in Sochi if one of her competitors happens to beat her at GPF is pretty short-sighted. Joannie Rochette came 5th at the GPF two months before the Olympics - placing behind Wagner, Suzuki, and Ando - whom she all defeated for the Olympic bronze.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Adelina hasn't cracked 130. Pogo hasn't cracked 130. Julia's total score has surpassed 130 once, incidentally the only time she beat Ashley's PB, although we'll see what happens at Rostelcom.

    Julia's program is a minefield where one error immediately removes her out of the 130 equation. Her PB is 131 with a perfect skate. Wagner scored 127 at TEB in spite of errors.

    To say Ashley has no chance in Sochi if one of her competitors happens to beat her is pretty short-sighted. Joannie Rochette came 5th in the GPF two months before the Olympics, placing behind Wagner, Suzuki, and Ando, whom she all defeated for the Olympic bronze.
    Yes, but Joannie went from Japan to Canada (and she didn't beat Wagner directly), while Ashley is going from Japan to Russia. Joannie was easily beating Ando the previous year and merely lost due to a disastrous skate. Wagner is nearly maxed out on her FS score, and it's not much higher than Julia's.

  8. #38
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    The Ladies competition in Sochi is looking rather underwhelming after what we've seen so far this season. Kostner and Murakami looking bad at COC Gracie looking mediocre so far and Yuna not even competing. I just hope the level of skating improves in the next month and a half.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    The Ladies competition in Sochi is looking rather underwhelming after what we've seen so far this season. Kostner and Murakami looking bad at COC Gracie looking mediocre so far and Yuna not even competing. I just hope the level of skating improves in the next month and a half.
    I'm pretty sure it will improve as the level of skating on the GP circuit 4 years ago was scarcely better and yet the ladies were great in Vancouver.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Adelina hasn't cracked 130. Pogo hasn't cracked 130. Julia's total score has surpassed 130 once, incidentally the only time she beat Ashley's PB, although we'll see what happens at Rostelcom.

    Julia's program is a minefield where one error immediately removes her out of the 130 equation. Her PB is 131 with a perfect skate. Wagner scored 127 at TEB in spite of errors.

    To say Ashley has no chance in Sochi if one of her competitors happens to beat her at GPF is pretty short-sighted. Joannie Rochette came 5th at the GPF two months before the Olympics - placing behind Wagner, Suzuki, and Ando - whom she all defeated for the Olympic bronze.
    A implies B doesn't mean C implies B.

    Joannie was a reigning silver medalist. Joannie would be skating on home soil at the Olympics.

    Just because Joannie messed up in the GPF preceding the Olympics and still became a contender at the Olympics doesn't mean Ashley can afford the same luxury. Other variables come in the equation here.

    Ashley has no chance in Sochi if she lose to either Russians in the GPF. That's the reality.
    Someone like Carolina or Mao or Yuna would still have all kind of chances in Sochi even if they lose to the Russians in the GPF.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    A implies B doesn't mean C implies B.
    Ashley has no chance in Sochi if she lose to either Russians in the GPF. That's the reality.
    Someone like Carolina or Mao or Yuna would still have all kind of chances in Sochi even if they lose to the Russians in the GPF.
    Seriously? No chance? And what if Ashley skates cleanly in Sochi and the Russians don't? There are so many variables that could affect the outcome.

    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Joannie was a reigning silver medalist. Joannie would be skating on home soil at the Olympics.
    In the 05-06 season, Carolina was the reigning world bronze medalist, who would be skating on home soil at the Olympics. She came 3rd at Europeans in Estonia, ahead of Meier, and then placed behind Meier in Turin on her home ice... she had also beat Suguri and Arakawa at Worlds - and you can imagine people like you would have said there's no chance for them to beat Kostner in Turin, and yet they placed well ahead of her.

    You have yet to say what makes you so sure that if Ashley loses at the GPF she will undoubtedly get beaten by them in Sochi. There's no guarantee that the Russians will even skate well in Sochi or succumb to home ice pressure. I'm trying to figure out your logic here.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Ashley has no chance in Sochi if she lose to either Russians in the GPF. That's the reality.
    Someone like Carolina or Mao or Yuna would still have all kind of chances in Sochi even if they lose to the Russians in the GPF.
    How is that the reality? Ashley's PCS has been slowly improving for 3 years due to consistent results. One bad event is absolutely not going to undo three years of progression. Julia will not beat Ashley this year if both skate clean, regardless of what happens at the GPF. Yuna, Mao, Carolina, Akiko, Ashley, Gracie, Kanako, Adelina, and even Elena R all have a better artistic reputations than Julia and Anna so I'm not sure why Ashley would be singled out as all of a sudden going from the 4th highest PCS in the world to outside the top 10 if she doesn't beat Julia at the GPF.

  13. #43
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    No, I don't think the official skating community would look on that kindly. She needs to compete as much as she can, get feed back and see what she needs to do to increase her score against the other ladies.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    In the 05-06 season, Carolina was the reigning world bronze medalist, who would be skating on home soil at the Olympics. She came 3rd at Europeans in Estonia, ahead of Meier, and then placed behind Meier in Turin on her home ice... she had also beat Suguri and Arakawa at Worlds - and you can imagine people like you would have said there's no chance for them to beat Kostner in Turin, and yet they placed well ahead of her.

    You have yet to say what makes you so sure that if Ashley loses at the GPF she will undoubtedly get beaten by them in Sochi. There's no guarantee that the Russians will even skate well in Sochi or succumb to home ice pressure. I'm trying to figure out your logic here.
    Here's the logic.
    Arakawa/Suguri are world medalists who are very good themselves.
    Arakawa at her best is the best in the world. Even if she's slumming, she can still beat anyone. Same logic applies today, even if Mao/Carolina/Yuna slum terribly at the GPF, if they can put it together, they will still beat the Russians in Sochi.
    Logic hasn't changed there at all. You seemed to be confused.

    Now, the Russian girls, if they only landed 1 or 2 triples in Sochi, everyone, including one of the Helgelson sisters, will beat them.
    This is not about who's beating who when they land 1 or 2 triples.

    This is about these skaters skating to their normal ability. Don't conflate all the issues. It's not that complicated.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    How is that the reality? Ashley's PCS has been slowly improving for 3 years due to consistent results. One bad event is absolutely not going to undo three years of progression. Julia will not beat Ashley this year if both skate clean, regardless of what happens at the GPF.
    If Julia beat Ashley at GPF, game over for Ashley.

    You think that if both are clean at Sochi, Julia would lose to Ashley? That's delusional thinking.
    The judges will go with her, especially when she just beat Ashley at the GPF.

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