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Thread: Should Ashley skip the GPF

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Well your argument was that a clean Julia would be a clean Ashley, and the 3/3 is part of her program now so she is going for 7. No one is saying Julia can't beat Ashley, just that Ashley would have to not skate her best for that to happen. Whatever happens at the GPF won't change the fact that Ashley will still get better PCS than Adelina, Kanako, Elena R, and a few others, and all of them will get better PCS than Julia. There is only upside for Ashley competing at the GPF because she has yet to go clean and establish her PCS ceiling with a flawless program.
    Ashley will have no chance. Her best is not enough anymore.
    Look at CoR, and see why.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Ashley will have no chance. Her best is not enough anymore.
    Look at CoR, and see why.
    I agree. Julia Lip is having the very dream season a new face wants to have in an Olympic season. She has been on such a tear, and has created an aura of champion/invincibility. This should carry her through the Olympics with higher than deserved marks. It will be next season when her jumps and PCS will be more scrutinized. I don't think Ashley has a chance against a clean Julia anymore. When I first saw Julia skate a couple years ago, I called her as Olympic medalist, possibly even champion. I never do that because bodies change and you don't know what will happen. But each year she got better, stronger, faster as she grew.

    I've admired Ashley this season because she's been walking her talk. She said the 3/3 will be in there, and guess what, it has been. She didn't wait until Nationals or after to attempt the 3/3. So good for her and her competitive nerve. I hope this at least helps her get an Olympic bronze or higher in the team competition, so all the work would be worth it.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Ashley will have no chance. Her best is not enough anymore.
    Look at CoR, and see why.
    What does CoR have to do with Ashley skating only at Sochi vs at both Sochi and GPF?

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    What does CoR have to do with Ashley skating only at Sochi vs at both Sochi and GPF?
    Didn't I answer this question?

    Ashley skating only at Sochi = 0% chance of beating Julia.
    Ashley skating at both GPF and Sochi = 1% chance. Like I said, the monsterball is rolling down the hill. Faster and faster each moment. The only way for Ashley to have any chance is to put a brake on this monsterball. At the GPF, in slightly neutral ground, if she can't beat it, and stop the momentum, then it is 0% chance again at Sochi. If she somehow manage to beat it, then her chance in Sochi goes up by 1%.

    CoR is showing you the progress of the ball rolling. It's going almost full speed now. That's what CoR have to do with.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Of course a clean Ashley would beat a clean Julia. Ashley's scores for her current performances indicate clean she would go over 130 for sure, and a perfect Julia at Skate Canada only managed 130. Ashley would crush Julia in PCS. Julia's only real edge would be spins, but would not make up the PCS gap. LOL at Flattfan of all people calling others beliefs delusional.
    Most people would define delusion as can't face reality.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post

    I don't know why people are doubting Ashley all of a sudden. Unless Mao tanks I don't think Ashley will win, but a silver medal would be great and position her very well heading into Sochi...I think she'll be fine.
    Mainly because of Wagner's tendency to peak early. But unless she is hurt I see no legit reason why she'd want to skip GPF...

    Also, I don't buy this argument about rep falling if she does badly. Did it affect Asada or Rochette in 2009? Didn't think so...

  7. #67
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    1. Ashley:

    My cousin is a genius; graduated from the top of the top university. His father was furious with him throughout his undergrad years because he didn't get on the dean's honours full time. (Set aside the fact that he could easily get full GPA's with very little effort, just to prove the point.)

    Right now, we have an extensive list of ladies with goods, alongside the Big 3 (sounds like telecom companies, but well); not enough to beat the three, but to have that level of top 10 contenders is rare; Ashley's among them. Unlike many, I personally think she has a good chance amongst them - meaning not necessarily the lock for bronze, but enough to stride for top 5.

    2. RE) Original Subject:

    Aren't Olympic season competitions supposed to be gear-ups for Oly prep, especially for Olympic participants? They are run-throughs, check points, rehearsals for Olympics. They are allowed to make changes to the program in the middle of the events, so improving her programs may be helped from open reviews. In Ashley's case, she's in full-throttle with notable improvements, mentally on fire, and GP's are actually motivating her. She's a person who needs regular short-term goals to engage in long-term goals, just to keep her mind tight. Seeing the accomplishments so far, I think rather she needs all these events. Though, I agree that she will need some time right before February for the final conditioning, but GPF shouldn't be much a distraction.

    Besides, GPF still counts towards next seasons, and gives exposure and resume - which she still needs to keep on profile. As of now, she is keeping our conversation busy by competing!
    Last edited by bebevia; 11-22-2013 at 12:49 PM. Reason: grammar?

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by skateluvr View Post
    I think Ashley is a lock for at least Bronze. S he should be and I hope a podium finish sets her up. It is still very prestigious. She is skating well-sadly I don't think her LP is on par with last two years. I doubt she'll beat Mao, tho clearly she has the whole package. If she does more clean triples, and has the PCS she deserves, they should give it to her. I love Mao, but her wins have often been rep judging.

    She is a first tier skater. Will they really give Caro unfair PCS cuz it is her 3rd or 4th ? Olympics? YuNa is the ultimate CoP skater. Done deal. I don't want to see Mao or Caro held up at Olympics. I also do not agree a clean YuNa is always 20 points better than clean Mao. Vancouver shocked me. But like many, I am no scoring wonk.

    I expect to see a clean Julia on podium in Sochi. even though I don't agree she is a great performer. So that leaves silver which I suspect will be Caro or Mao, likely Mao. So Ashley even if almost clean is looking at 4 or 5. 4 if Caro bombs. I think Caro will get pity points and overdue points if she stands up. But this year isn't her best for programs. None of the top ladies has a great program like last year. Ash should do Black Swan, Caro do Bolero. Chan was smart to keep Elegie, I wonder if it is too late to change anything?

    I truly feel Gold has wrong LP and Johnny voiced my exact thoughts, written earlier in season. Since Grace will likely not medal unless she pulls a Sarah/Tara technically and they are forced to give her bronze, I'd like to see a new program. Grace is not going to GP right?

    This is a building year for her, and she could medal at World's. I just want to see any, fast paced, dynamic program, with easier transitions and np pretense at balletic skating. Her SP shows what she can do-she has it all, except balletic or adagio style. It would be tough. They could redo her exhibition. Chacking her LP would be good since it's lousy and she can't skate to it, anyway. I was hoping her program would showcase speed, big jumps, fast spins. She is so unlikely to podium, it makes more sense to let her be grace. She will get second spot at nationals, as long as she delivers speed and jumps, and they really handicapped her in the LP.

    I loved her costumes last year. Bright bold colors, the right glam. If there is one program that is all wrong, her LP is it. I cannot believe the genius Marina Zueva did this. It does not look like her work. She did a lot to showcase Goordeeva who had no jumps, and she did it well. Grace can do everything except be calm it seems, so while Kwan could handle a change midseason, I know this is asking a lot. If Hicks can do well with just jumps, Grace can make a much better cause for herself. I am upset she is not allowed to be herself. Wrong year for Sleeping Beauty. Not yet grace-maybe at 22. Even YuNa knows her limits as does Wilson. I am upset for Gracie and wonder what Frank Carroll thinks. OT I know but Grace could and should medal at worlds given an LP suited to her style and maturity. With mass retirements, she should be ready. This was really Zueva's work???
    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Didn't I answer this question?

    Ashley skating only at Sochi = 0% chance of beating Julia.
    Ashley skating at both GPF and Sochi = 1% chance. Like I said, the monsterball is rolling down the hill. Faster and faster each moment. The only way for Ashley to have any chance is to put a brake on this monsterball. At the GPF, in slightly neutral ground, if she can't beat it, and stop the momentum, then it is 0% chance again at Sochi. If she somehow manage to beat it, then her chance in Sochi goes up by 1%.

    CoR is showing you the progress of the ball rolling. It's going almost full speed now. That's what CoR have to do with.
    That ball rolling will come to a halt at the GPF. What the judges gifted Julia in PCS will be given to Mao, and what the judges held back for Kostner's PCS will be applied to Julia. I imagine at the GPF that Julia's PCS will drop back to 30.XX points instead of 32. And at Euros Julia will also not score 72 points. This will prevent her from scoring as high as people are touting her to score in Sochi.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    That ball rolling will come to a halt at the GPF. What the judges gifted Julia in PCS will be given to Mao, and what the judges held back for Kostner's PCS will be applied to Julia. I imagine at the GPF that Julia's PCS will drop back to 30.XX points instead of 32. And at Euros Julia will also not score 72 points. This will prevent her from scoring as high as people are touting her to score in Sochi.
    It don't matter. In Sochi, which is in Russia, PCS will go up to at least 33+ in the SP. It's impossible that it would be less, considering CoR.

  10. #70
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    I'm fine with Julia winning bronze with her content, as I think at least one medalist should have all 7 triples in their LP (it's been ages) and a 3Z-3T/3F SP is also great. But she will not defeat a clean Kim or Asada.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Mainly because of Wagner's tendency to peak early. But unless she is hurt I see no legit reason why she'd want to skip GPF...

    Also, I don't buy this argument about rep falling if she does badly. Did it affect Asada or Rochette in 2009? Didn't think so...
    Oh, it definitely affected Asada. By 2010 she couldn't even beat Kim with a fall and a pop in the FS, while in 2008 she could do it with a fall.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    Oh, it definitely affected Asada. By 2010 she couldn't even beat Kim with a fall and a pop in the FS, while in 2008 she could do it with a fall.
    LOL like Kim skated the same way at the 2008 Worlds as at the 2010 Olympics. Are you actually being serious with that as an example!?!?! Kim was injured and in poor shape at the 2008 Worlds, and made major errors in her LP (biggest of all a singled triple lutz) and still won the LP phase, but narrowly lost since she fell in the SP too. You forget Mao had her most perfect skate to a very difficult LP at the 2008 Grand Prix final. A clean performance with a 3 axel, 2 triple-triples, 7 overall triples, 2 double axels, and still only beat Kim falling on her triple loop by 1 point in the LP.

    I don't think the rules made much difference. A clean Kim and clean Asada were almost equal in 2008. By 2010 a clean Asada had no chance vs a clean Kim since Kim had improved a lot since 2008, while Mao had not and was saddled with yucky Tarasova choreography and an overobsession with the triple axel which saw many of her other jumps suffer in quality even when she made them. Now she has worked hard to fix many of her jumps, has beautiful programs again, so the last 2 years they are closer again (apart from Kim's superior consistency) just like they used to be (well and the rule changes help Mao in this matchup too, but there were none between 2008 and 2010 that hurt her).

  13. #73
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    If Wagner can crack 70 in the SP at the GPF, that will be a step in the direction she wants to go (position herself as a contender, as long as she holds up in the FS). Assuming she makes the Oly team, that'll be her last int'l comp before Sochi.

  14. #74
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    Kostner didn't come close to 70 today for a clean short with a 3-3. Ashley doesn't even have a 3-3 planned in the SP. I don't see how she is cracking 70 with a 3-2 combo in the SP, no way.

    When I was thinking of Wagner vs Lipnitskaia in my previous post I had forgotten the SP aspect. I still think (even after today) a clean Ashley would beat a clean Julia in the LP. Well atleast on neutral territory like the Grand Prix final and Worlds in Japan. At the Olympics in Russia, probably not. However Lipnitskaia would comfortably beat a clean Ashley in the SP if Ashley attempts the same jumps in the short she is now.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Kostner didn't come close to 70 today for a clean short with a 3-3. Ashley doesn't even have a 3-3 planned in the SP. I don't see how she is cracking 70 with a 3-2 combo in the SP, no way.
    ??? She attempted one at both SA and TEB (even if she didn't get full credit for it, she still went for it)...unless her plans have changed?

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