I've admired Ashley this season because she's been walking her talk. She said the 3/3 will be in there, and guess what, it has been. She didn't wait until Nationals or after to attempt the 3/3. So good for her and her competitive nerve. I hope this at least helps her get an Olympic bronze or higher in the team competition, so all the work would be worth it.
Ashley skating only at Sochi = 0% chance of beating Julia.
Ashley skating at both GPF and Sochi = 1% chance. Like I said, the monsterball is rolling down the hill. Faster and faster each moment. The only way for Ashley to have any chance is to put a brake on this monsterball. At the GPF, in slightly neutral ground, if she can't beat it, and stop the momentum, then it is 0% chance again at Sochi. If she somehow manage to beat it, then her chance in Sochi goes up by 1%.
CoR is showing you the progress of the ball rolling. It's going almost full speed now. That's what CoR have to do with.
My cousin is a genius; graduated from the top of the top university. His father was furious with him throughout his undergrad years because he didn't get on the dean's honours full time. (Set aside the fact that he could easily get full GPA's with very little effort, just to prove the point.)
Right now, we have an extensive list of ladies with goods, alongside the Big 3 (sounds like telecom companies, but well); not enough to beat the three, but to have that level of top 10 contenders is rare; Ashley's among them. Unlike many, I personally think she has a good chance amongst them - meaning not necessarily the lock for bronze, but enough to stride for top 5.
2. RE) Original Subject:
Aren't Olympic season competitions supposed to be gear-ups for Oly prep, especially for Olympic participants? They are run-throughs, check points, rehearsals for Olympics. They are allowed to make changes to the program in the middle of the events, so improving her programs may be helped from open reviews. In Ashley's case, she's in full-throttle with notable improvements, mentally on fire, and GP's are actually motivating her. She's a person who needs regular short-term goals to engage in long-term goals, just to keep her mind tight. Seeing the accomplishments so far, I think rather she needs all these events. Though, I agree that she will need some time right before February for the final conditioning, but GPF shouldn't be much a distraction.
Besides, GPF still counts towards next seasons, and gives exposure and resume - which she still needs to keep on profile. As of now, she is keeping our conversation busy by competing!
Last edited by bebevia; 11-22-2013 at 12:49 PM. Reason: grammar?
I'm fine with Julia winning bronze with her content, as I think at least one medalist should have all 7 triples in their LP (it's been ages) and a 3Z-3T/3F SP is also great. But she will not defeat a clean Kim or Asada.
I don't think the rules made much difference. A clean Kim and clean Asada were almost equal in 2008. By 2010 a clean Asada had no chance vs a clean Kim since Kim had improved a lot since 2008, while Mao had not and was saddled with yucky Tarasova choreography and an overobsession with the triple axel which saw many of her other jumps suffer in quality even when she made them. Now she has worked hard to fix many of her jumps, has beautiful programs again, so the last 2 years they are closer again (apart from Kim's superior consistency) just like they used to be (well and the rule changes help Mao in this matchup too, but there were none between 2008 and 2010 that hurt her).
If Wagner can crack 70 in the SP at the GPF, that will be a step in the direction she wants to go (position herself as a contender, as long as she holds up in the FS). Assuming she makes the Oly team, that'll be her last int'l comp before Sochi.
Kostner didn't come close to 70 today for a clean short with a 3-3. Ashley doesn't even have a 3-3 planned in the SP. I don't see how she is cracking 70 with a 3-2 combo in the SP, no way.
When I was thinking of Wagner vs Lipnitskaia in my previous post I had forgotten the SP aspect. I still think (even after today) a clean Ashley would beat a clean Julia in the LP. Well atleast on neutral territory like the Grand Prix final and Worlds in Japan. At the Olympics in Russia, probably not. However Lipnitskaia would comfortably beat a clean Ashley in the SP if Ashley attempts the same jumps in the short she is now.