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Thread: Should Ashley skip the GPF

  1. #76
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    I read somewhere she was taking it out for the SP but leaving it in for the LP for the final. Which given that she seems unable to do it cleanly in the SP (atleast in the LP the 3-3 is often clean, but mistakes in other things) makes sense.

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    LOL like Kim skated the same way at the 2008 Worlds as at the 2010 Olympics. Are you actually being serious with that as an example!?!?! Kim was injured and in poor shape at the 2008 Worlds, and made major errors in her LP (biggest of all a singled triple lutz) and still won the LP phase, but narrowly lost since she fell in the SP too. You forget Mao had her most perfect skate to a very difficult LP at the 2008 Grand Prix final. A clean performance with a 3 axel, 2 triple-triples, 7 overall triples, 2 double axels, and still only beat Kim falling on her triple loop by 1 point in the LP.

    I don't think the rules made much difference. A clean Kim and clean Asada were almost equal in 2008. By 2010 a clean Asada had no chance vs a clean Kim since Kim had improved a lot since 2008, while Mao had not and was saddled with yucky Tarasova choreography and an overobsession with the triple axel which saw many of her other jumps suffer in quality even when she made them. Now she has worked hard to fix many of her jumps, has beautiful programs again, so the last 2 years they are closer again (apart from Kim's superior consistency) just like they used to be (well and the rule changes help Mao in this matchup too, but there were none between 2008 and 2010 that hurt her).
    I was actually comparing the 2008 GPF to 2010 Worlds. At the 2008 GPF, Mao landed 2 triple Axels but fell on her 2nd 3Flip. She beat Kim anyway because Kim pooped a Lutz and fell on a 3Sal. At 2010 Worlds, Mao's only mistake was a downgrade on her second 3A and she couldn't even beat Kim with a popped 2A and another 3Sal fall. It was Masquerade vs. Scheherazade to Gershwin vs. Bells, not that big a change in the comparison.

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I read somewhere she was taking it out for the SP but leaving it in for the LP for the final. Which given that she seems unable to do it cleanly in the SP (atleast in the LP the 3-3 is often clean, but mistakes in other things) makes sense.
    I just hope this is not right. She should do 3F+3T in the short. Even with underotation she can get more points than 3F+2T.

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    I was actually comparing the 2008 GPF to 2010 Worlds. At the 2008 GPF, Mao landed 2 triple Axels but fell on her 2nd 3Flip. She beat Kim anyway because Kim pooped a Lutz and fell on a 3Sal. At 2010 Worlds, Mao's only mistake was a downgrade on her second 3A and she couldn't even beat Kim with a popped 2A and another 3Sal fall. It was Masquerade vs. Scheherazade to Gershwin vs. Bells, not that big a change in the comparison.
    OK but I don't think it was Rule Changes. What major rule changes took place from the 08-09 season to 09-2010? I thought Mao should have won the LP at Worlds for sure over a lackluster Kim (although she still won the title easily so it was moot). However Mao's 2009-2010 season LP was her worst ever IMO. I offend anyone who actually liked her program that year, as I know there are some who did. So I can see how she was scoring less favorably to others with that program. Kim also was totally affirmed as the dominant skater by the time of the 2010 Worlds. 2009 Worlds, the 2009 fall season, 2010 Olympics, made that clear. At the time of the 2009 Grand Prix final Kim and Mao were still seen as fairly close. Perception affects the judges quite a bit.

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    OK but I don't think it was Rule Changes. What major rule changes took place from the 08-09 season to 09-2010? I thought Mao should have won the LP at Worlds for sure over a lackluster Kim (although she still won the title easily so it was moot). However Mao's 2009-2010 season LP was her worst ever IMO. I offend anyone who actually liked her program that year, as I know there are some who did. So I can see how she was scoring less favorably to others with that program. Kim also was totally affirmed as the dominant skater by the time of the 2010 Worlds. 2009 Worlds, the 2009 fall season, 2010 Olympics, made that clear. At the time of the 2009 Grand Prix final Kim and Mao were still seen as fairly close. Perception affects the judges quite a bit.
    I don't recall any major rule changes between those two seasons; my original post was actually just saying Asada's rep suffered from poor results throughout 2009 (WTT excepted), not rule changes. I'm not going to get into comparing Bells to every other LP, but I don't think it was much worse than the Masquerade LP; they had very similar layouts and the whole perception of both programs was mostly dependent on Asada landing her first 3 jumping passes.

    Edit: I just remembered that they stopped making the < mark visible to the judges in the Olympic season. Otherwise, very little changed between the two seasons.

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Ashley will have no chance. Her best is not enough anymore.
    Look at CoR, and see why.
    Ashley would have won COR, based on her scores at SA and TEB.

  7. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by jenaj View Post
    Ashley would have won COR, based on her scores at SA and TEB.
    No.
    They held down caro pcs and goe. They wouldnt have any problem pulling ahsley pcs and goe lower

    Hello, look at what happened

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    No.
    They held down caro pcs and goe. They wouldnt have any problem pulling ahsley pcs and goe lower

    Hello, look at what happened
    Woulda, coulda. The numbers don't lie. Ashley wins this event if she skates like she did before.

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    They held down caro pcs and goe.
    No they didn't. Caro does not have a good LP this season. I'm glad to see the judges evaluating her performance and not her reputation.

    Ashley would have won hands down. She's an incredibly talented skater.

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by jenaj View Post
    Ashley would have won COR, based on her scores at SA and TEB.
    No.
    Judges did not hesitate to put Lipni ahead(overall) of Caro who has multiple Worlds medals and great SS.
    Wagner is not a Worlds medalist and IMO Wagner is slower than Lipni.

  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by EricRohmer View Post
    No.
    Judges did not hesitate to put Lipni ahead(overall) of Caro who has multiple Worlds medals and great SS.
    Wagner is not a Worlds medalist and IMO Wagner is slower than Lipni.
    Caro also skated worse than Wagner, who didn't make any mistakes as costly as Caro's at her two events.

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    Caro also skated worse than Wagner, who didn't make any mistakes as costly as Caro's at her two events.
    After SP scoring at COR(if Wagner had competed here), Wagner's LP performance might have been different from SA & TEB's.

    And Wagner's total scores were 193(SA) & 194(TEB). Both somewhat overscored.
    These are scores on which judges at COR can make to 190.5 (vs Lipni's 190.8) without difficulty.

  13. #88
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    Wagner slower than Julia!?! I don't think so.

    Wagner was not overscored in those two events. In Skate America many felt she was underscored compared to Mao. Given that she is now doing a triple-triple and only made minor errors her scores should be atleast as high as they were.

  14. #89
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    I don't think she should skip the GPF, but I don't think she really has much of a chance of medaling in Sochi unless Yu-na, Mao or Julia bomb their programs.

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by EricRohmer View Post
    Wagner is not a Worlds medalist and IMO Wagner is slower than Lipni.
    To the extent an opinion can be wrong, this is wrong. Ashley is notably faster, but Julia is 15 and she will get faster too. Michelle was slow when she was 15.

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