Probably so she can easily win the junior title. She was 4th last year when Polina won. She had a issue with URs last season, so I think it was good she stuck around in juniors for another season. And under the new rules she won't be GP eligible until the 2015-2016 season.
Which ladies -USA -deserve Sochi?
- Thread starter skateluvr
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- May 19, 2011
I think Mirai definitely put herself back in the mix with her two strong skates at COR. Of the third place hopefuls she was the only one to medal on the GP this season.
I want to say she was lowballed in PCS at COR but at the same time it's not like she gave them a reason to score her higher. Both of her programs have potential, especially when she skates cleanly; however, she has to bring some energy/life/performance to these programs if she wants her PCS to increase.
Her FS was wonderful but she didn't come alive until after that final 3L...by then it was too late. She needs to go back and watch Yu-Na's Bond program to get a feel for how to engage the judges and the audience during the entire performance instead of the last 40 seconds. Same thing for her SP: lovely moments throughout but she's not bringing anything to the performance.
If Mirai brings that energy/fun/sass/life to her programs along with the speed and clean jumps, her scores will rise. That was the only thing missing from her performances...she just needs to let go and have fun. If she can replicate her technical performances from COR (and include that 2A-3T) and add some spark to her presentation, there's no way she won't make that team.
I want to say she was lowballed in PCS at COR but at the same time it's not like she gave them a reason to score her higher. Both of her programs have potential, especially when she skates cleanly; however, she has to bring some energy/life/performance to these programs if she wants her PCS to increase.
Her FS was wonderful but she didn't come alive until after that final 3L...by then it was too late. She needs to go back and watch Yu-Na's Bond program to get a feel for how to engage the judges and the audience during the entire performance instead of the last 40 seconds. Same thing for her SP: lovely moments throughout but she's not bringing anything to the performance.
If Mirai brings that energy/fun/sass/life to her programs along with the speed and clean jumps, her scores will rise. That was the only thing missing from her performances...she just needs to let go and have fun. If she can replicate her technical performances from COR (and include that 2A-3T) and add some spark to her presentation, there's no way she won't make that team.
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- Apr 2, 2009
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The crazy thing is that veteran Mirai is the same age as fresh faced Cesario, only a year older then Gao and Zawadzki and almost 3 years younger then Kim and Asada, 6 years younger then Kostner and 8 years younger then Suzuki. I think she's got a 3rd act due soon, though she has to want it!
THIS!
I think Mirai definitely put herself back into the conversation. And she is indeed the only other U.S. skater to medal apart from Ashley and Gracie. There's still work to be done but she's on the right track. I just hope against hope that if she hits it out of the park at Nationals the judges won't hold up skaters like Agnes should she falter - like they did last year in the SP. Frankly they held Gracie up too - anyone else (other than Wagner) who bombed their SP that badly would have not been in the top 10 going into the LP.
For the moment, I think the Sochi team should be Ashley, Gracie, and Mirai. Mirai still did not put her best out there and managed to medal. Her PCS in the LP was not too shabby overall, she actually got into the 7s - which shows the judges are willing to score her higher if she can dig down deep and perform even better than at COR. I noticed her transition score was in the 6s - that is something she can definitely improve on. She also obviously still must have the jumps. Apart from rotating them all (hard for her I know) I honestly think Mirai will have to work on upgrading her jumps again. She needs a 3-3 in her LP, preferably a 3Lz-3T but at least a 3F-3T to keep up with the best of them. It's probably too late for Nationals but even if she doesn't make the team for Sochi I think she still can improve tons. She's only 20 after all.
Polina Edmunds now is at Senior level.
Barbie Long and Mariah Bell (2nd and 3rd at JrNats 2013) are not competitors for Karen. And they both are at Senior level now - qualified to Nationals at Midwestern Sectionals.
Amber Glenn (she qualified to JrNats) is not so good as Karen, but may make Junior title not so easy, she has 3Lz+3T and 3F+3T in FS. Not so stable, but ice is slippery, she may do it.
Is it interesting for Karen to compete with not so high level skaters?
And competing in USA at Senior level makes no problem for competing internationally at Junior level. All three US Ladies at JrWorlds-2013 was from Senior Nats.
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- Oct 22, 2005
I've seen this from several people going back to Nationals last year, but no one gives proof of HOW/WHAT scores she was held up on. She got the requisite -3 GOEs for the fall on the combo and the -1 overall and the requisite -3 GOEs on the 1A for less than required revolutions. Were her spins overscored in your opinion? She gets level 4's and she SHOULD rightly get high GOEs for speed, centering, positions, etc. (which are scored independently of the jumps and steps). Her PCS wasn't stellar in the SP at Nationals (like they were for the LP). 54 for what she DID do was about right last year (especially considering she put up a 69 at SC for a clean SP this year and her SP score at Worlds was better, even with the mistake). It's not her fault others didn't have the same difficulty, even with the mistakes.
- Joined
- May 19, 2011
Honestly, Mirai can't keep up with the best of them. Her name is nowhere in the mix in terms of medaling in Sochi and I'd be shocked into a coma if she repeated her 4th place finish there.
However, Mirai is a solid top 10 bet in Sochi when she skates well. To do that, all she'll need to do is add that 2A-3T to her FS and nail the rest of her jumps. She did it in Vancouver and she just did it at COR so it's not like it's impossible. The only thing holding Mirai back from being in the mix with Ashley and Akiko is her presentation. Both of those ladies breathe life into their programs and choreography; they commit from the first note of music to the last and that's what Mirai doesn't do. She laser-focus skates until she's done jumping and then allows herself to sparkle...she can't score well doing that. Even when Agnes is falling all over the place she continues to perform and keep up the intensity of her music/program. Mirai really needs to learn to perform no matter what is happening on the technical side of her program.
A clean SP with a 3T-3T like the one she did at COR will score her very well at nationals. She scored a 64.39 last year and that was with less than perfect spins and a lack of energy. Piggybacking another strong SP on top of her COR one will boost her scores and adding more life to the program will boost them even higher. I think she could easily score 64-67 if she hits this year.
Now that she's lipping instead of flutzing, she may want to consider replacing the 2nd 3F with another lutz but if not as long as she includes that 2A-3T and skates well (and with spark) she'll score well and place well. Plus, of all of the people in contention for the Olympics this year (and still competitive internationally) Mirai is the only one with experience...experience is invaluable especially in a situation like this. So if Mirai skates well, I don't think the judges will hold Agnes up over her especially if Agnes doesn't skate well.
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- May 19, 2011
I agree. Whenever people complain about scores and say a skater should have only earned X for their performance, I always invite them to grab a piece of paper and score the competition themselves. You may think a skater only deserved a 50 or 51 for a performance but when you crunch the numbers it may be hard to make that kind of score materialize.
At first glance I thought Gracie should have been much lower but once I went and calculated my own scores I found that the judges were fair in the SP. http://thenakedice.blogspot.com/2013/02/ill-be-judge-of-that-us-nationals.html I do think she was very overscored in PCS in the FS but her SP score was pretty fair.
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- Feb 17, 2010
The problem is that the last few years Mirai has skated far worse at Nationals than in her GP events. If previous seasons are any indication, we have already seen the best of Mirai that we will see this year. I'm not trying to be negative her but rather to point out trends.
She's won at every level (juvenile, intermediate, novice) so far, so I don't it's unreasonable for her to continue the streak by winning the junior title. She's a dark horse at best for the podium at the senior level, she might as well go for the junior title and perhaps break Gracie Gold's record score at that event (which I think she can do given her ISU personal best is 179 and Gracie's score at nationals was 178+). That will turn heads if she does that and ensure her lots of plum assignments in juniors until she's old enough for the GP.
Amber Glenn looks good for podium and could threaten Karen for the title, but I think Karen still has the edge.
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- May 19, 2011
I hate making excuses for Mirai (b/c it seems like we're always making excuses for her) but to be fair she was very sick at nationals last year. After her strong SP performance I watched her in the press conference. She had to leave early b/c all of her coughing was disrupting everyone else's questions...
Prior to nationals last year Mirai's season mirrored this season: weak first GP, strong 2nd GP and a medal. I honestly feel that had Mirai not been so sick last year she'd have fared better in the FS (her SP was very good). I think Mirai's programs are better this year and if she can perform them as well as hit her elements like she did at COR, I think she's got a real shot at that team.
The problem with Mirai is that she skates as if she were somewhere else mentally. Looking disinterested doesn't score well either with audiences or judges. I've seen Mirai skate from the front row and it's like watching a department store dummy skate. She is SO blankfaced throughout much of her programs, and looks alive only at the very end. That's why she gets such low PCS scores internationally. She never looked like that as a junior, but that's been her habit for the past 2-3 years.
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- Oct 14, 2007
The only person I see the USFSA putting on the team if they aren't in the top three is Ashley. Ashley has been in the top five at worlds for two years and has won a few grand prixs to prove she's competitive internationally. Beyond Ashley, I think it will just be who skates into the top three. None of the other skaters have a strong enough record where I can see the USFSA deciding to put them on an Olympic team if they aren't in the top three spots. That being said I do think even with a bad skate the judges will find a way to keep Gracie in the top three as well. It's anyone's game after those two. Courtney Hicks and Samantha Cesario are much more consistent overall, but for all their inconsistency when Agnes and Mirai skate well they are rewarded favourably. I don't see Gao making the team short of anyone above really bombing.
My prediction for nationals:
1) Gracie
2) Ashley
3) Agnes or Hicks
4) Samantha
My personal dream team:
1) Ashley
2) Mirai
3) Samantha
My prediction for nationals:
1) Gracie
2) Ashley
3) Agnes or Hicks
4) Samantha
My personal dream team:
1) Ashley
2) Mirai
3) Samantha
- Joined
- Apr 2, 2009
- Country
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Mirai has both flutzed and lipped. She seems to have improved somewhat on the lutz. With time she can get that fixed hopefully as well. Whether the judges will hold skaters up over Mirai, particularly Agnes should she make mistakes again has yet to be seen. Internationally this isn't a danger but at home the USFS seems to have made it clear who their favorites are.
I think that Mirai CAN keep up with the best of them but she's run out of time to train the triple-triples that she needs to be in the top tier again like she was in 2010. If she stays on after Sochi I totally believe she can keep improving (especially on her expression or lack thereof). She had it once I believe she can get it back again.
I did crunch the numbers back then and I still believe Gracie was held up on PCS - especially in the LP although she STILL deserved to win that portion of the competition. But we're on a merry go round on this one. Everyone's set their mind and no one is going to change it - least of all me. I still say Gracie's PCS in the SP held her up. They were trying to keep her on the podium, especially to get her to top 2 - and they did. Same with Agnes. Her SP score should NOT have placed her 2nd over Mirai.
The PCS score held her up - and Agnes as well. It's a matter of opinion. I just didn't see Gracie's SP PCS as high as it was after her meltdown. I stand by my opinion that if it had been anyone but the chosen - Gracie, Agnes, Ashley - their PCS would have plummetted and had them out of the top 10. Gracie's PCS scores in the LP were a joke - but I still feel she deserved to win that portion of the competition. In the end the best two went to Worlds and I have no problem with that. I will be ticked off however if mediocre skates are rewarded with high PCS with an Olympic berth on the line. I say 'an' singular because Ashley and Gracie are going to Sochi barring injury. Watch - at least one of the favorites is going to bomb at least one of their programs - and PCS is going to come to the rescue. Again.
THIS!
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- Oct 22, 2005
^^^
What specific aspects of her PCS score? She scored a 26.34 in PCS for a SP where she had 2 jumping mistakes but didn't give up points on spins or steps. She has excellent SS and TR in comparison to other current US ladies and yet, her PCS at 26.34 was just 0.05 points higher than Caroline Zhang (!!) in the SP last year at Nationals. She was scored behind Gao, Nagasu, Zawadski, and Wagner in PCS and ahead of Cesario, Siraj, Miller, Cain, Wang, and Hicks (and Zhang, Wang, and Cain) if we are going to look at the entire top 12 from last year. Most of the ones she scored ahead of in PCS were in the 24's and 25's, so not appreciable amounts. Of the top 12, Wagner was clean and Cesario was clean, but neither of them landed a 3+3 (Wagner was really the only one who could afford to not do a 3+3 of all the US ladies) while Zawadski was 2nd with a 2A fall, Nagasu got a L2 on her CCoSp, Hicks got 3T<, Gao had a FSSp2 fall, Siraj had 3T <, Miller had 3 Lo << who finished ahead of Gold and Wang had 3Lz fall (10th), Cain 3S < (11th), and Zhang 3Lo <+3Lo << (12th). Like I said, relative to the field, where was she overscored? Look at what she's pulling in internationally, too...
In the LP, PCS went as follows: Wagner 65.82, Gold 61.35, Zawadski 61.14, Nagasu 60.56, Gao 58.24, Siraj 56.95, Cesario 55.82, Miller 55.20, Hicks 54.58, Wang 53.99, Zhang 53.62 and Cain 53.02. Cesario suffered a little in PCS in the LP as she skated right after Gold who skated like she had a rocket on her back and a firecracker up her butt, but not that it would have made a huge difference for Cesario. Zawadski was VERY close to Gold in PCS in the LP and yet, she had a mess of a second half of that program, and Nagasu was under a point less and she looked like a zombie due to the flu. Gao is a pleasant enough skater, but doesn't have the same power. Again, relative to the field, how was she overscored?
What specific aspects of her PCS score? She scored a 26.34 in PCS for a SP where she had 2 jumping mistakes but didn't give up points on spins or steps. She has excellent SS and TR in comparison to other current US ladies and yet, her PCS at 26.34 was just 0.05 points higher than Caroline Zhang (!!) in the SP last year at Nationals. She was scored behind Gao, Nagasu, Zawadski, and Wagner in PCS and ahead of Cesario, Siraj, Miller, Cain, Wang, and Hicks (and Zhang, Wang, and Cain) if we are going to look at the entire top 12 from last year. Most of the ones she scored ahead of in PCS were in the 24's and 25's, so not appreciable amounts. Of the top 12, Wagner was clean and Cesario was clean, but neither of them landed a 3+3 (Wagner was really the only one who could afford to not do a 3+3 of all the US ladies) while Zawadski was 2nd with a 2A fall, Nagasu got a L2 on her CCoSp, Hicks got 3T<, Gao had a FSSp2 fall, Siraj had 3T <, Miller had 3 Lo << who finished ahead of Gold and Wang had 3Lz fall (10th), Cain 3S < (11th), and Zhang 3Lo <+3Lo << (12th). Like I said, relative to the field, where was she overscored? Look at what she's pulling in internationally, too...
In the LP, PCS went as follows: Wagner 65.82, Gold 61.35, Zawadski 61.14, Nagasu 60.56, Gao 58.24, Siraj 56.95, Cesario 55.82, Miller 55.20, Hicks 54.58, Wang 53.99, Zhang 53.62 and Cain 53.02. Cesario suffered a little in PCS in the LP as she skated right after Gold who skated like she had a rocket on her back and a firecracker up her butt, but not that it would have made a huge difference for Cesario. Zawadski was VERY close to Gold in PCS in the LP and yet, she had a mess of a second half of that program, and Nagasu was under a point less and she looked like a zombie due to the flu. Gao is a pleasant enough skater, but doesn't have the same power. Again, relative to the field, how was she overscored?
- Joined
- May 19, 2011
This is my dream team too. Ashley has earned her ticket to Sochi. Even if she bombs nationals I say put her on the team.
It'd be great to see Mirai recapture some of that magic she had 4 years ago, skate lights out and make the team after all of the struggles she's gone through these last couple of years.
Samantha is a breath of fresh air.
I love both of her programs and the way she performs. Plus, she's a competitor and that's always great. I don't think she has the skating skills of the top ladies right now (she's a little slow) plus she lacks power and tougher elements BUT I think she's had a fabulous season and it would be amazing if she made the team. Ashley is pretty much a lock, Mirai's chances are better after last week but I'm doubtful Samantha will make the team unless a number of skaters bottom out.
I agree about the SP but I still think she was overscored in PCS in the FS. My PCS for Gracie came out to 56.70. My explanation:
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- Feb 17, 2010
I agree with the first part. On the second, I think Ashley should go even if she places dead last, and then the two highest finishes not named Ashley Wagner.
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- May 19, 2011
This. In no way do I expect Ashley to tank at nationals this year but on the off chance that she did, she definitely deserves to go. She's the only complete package skater the US has right now (jumps, spins, programs, consistency, international reputation, etc.) so it would be suicide to leave her off of the team. She is the best hope the US has for a medal.
