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Thread: Which ladies -USA -deserve Sochi?

  1. #76
    Custom Title Sasha'sSpins's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    Honestly, Mirai can't keep up with the best of them. Her name is nowhere in the mix in terms of medaling in Sochi and I'd be shocked into a coma if she repeated her 4th place finish there.

    However, Mirai is a solid top 10 bet in Sochi when she skates well. To do that, all she'll need to do is add that 2A-3T to her FS and nail the rest of her jumps. She did it in Vancouver and she just did it at COR so it's not like it's impossible. The only thing holding Mirai back from being in the mix with Ashley and Akiko is her presentation. Both of those ladies breathe life into their programs and choreography; they commit from the first note of music to the last and that's what Mirai doesn't do. She laser-focus skates until she's done jumping and then allows herself to sparkle...she can't score well doing that. Even when Agnes is falling all over the place she continues to perform and keep up the intensity of her music/program. Mirai really needs to learn to perform no matter what is happening on the technical side of her program.

    A clean SP with a 3T-3T like the one she did at COR will score her very well at nationals. She scored a 64.39 last year and that was with less than perfect spins and a lack of energy. Piggybacking another strong SP on top of her COR one will boost her scores and adding more life to the program will boost them even higher. I think she could easily score 64-67 if she hits this year.

    Now that she's lipping instead of flutzing, she may want to consider replacing the 2nd 3F with another lutz but if not as long as she includes that 2A-3T and skates well (and with spark) she'll score well and place well. Plus, of all of the people in contention for the Olympics this year (and still competitive internationally) Mirai is the only one with experience...experience is invaluable especially in a situation like this. So if Mirai skates well, I don't think the judges will hold Agnes up over her especially if Agnes doesn't skate well.
    Mirai has both flutzed and lipped. She seems to have improved somewhat on the lutz. With time she can get that fixed hopefully as well. Whether the judges will hold skaters up over Mirai, particularly Agnes should she make mistakes again has yet to be seen. Internationally this isn't a danger but at home the USFS seems to have made it clear who their favorites are.

    I think that Mirai CAN keep up with the best of them but she's run out of time to train the triple-triples that she needs to be in the top tier again like she was in 2010. If she stays on after Sochi I totally believe she can keep improving (especially on her expression or lack thereof). She had it once I believe she can get it back again.

    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    I agree. Whenever people complain about scores and say a skater should have only earned X for their performance, I always invite them to grab a piece of paper and score the competition themselves. You may think a skater only deserved a 50 or 51 for a performance but when you crunch the numbers it may be hard to make that kind of score materialize.

    At first glance I thought Gracie should have been much lower but once I went and calculated my own scores I found that the judges were fair in the SP. http://thenakedice.blogspot.com/2013...nationals.html I do think she was very overscored in PCS in the FS but her SP score was pretty fair.
    I did crunch the numbers back then and I still believe Gracie was held up on PCS - especially in the LP although she STILL deserved to win that portion of the competition. But we're on a merry go round on this one. Everyone's set their mind and no one is going to change it - least of all me. I still say Gracie's PCS in the SP held her up. They were trying to keep her on the podium, especially to get her to top 2 - and they did. Same with Agnes. Her SP score should NOT have placed her 2nd over Mirai.

    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    I've seen this from several people going back to Nationals last year, but no one gives proof of HOW/WHAT scores she was held up on. She got the requisite -3 GOEs for the fall on the combo and the -1 overall and the requisite -3 GOEs on the 1A for less than required revolutions. Were her spins overscored in your opinion? She gets level 4's and she SHOULD rightly get high GOEs for speed, centering, positions, etc. (which are scored independently of the jumps and steps). Her PCS wasn't stellar in the SP at Nationals (like they were for the LP). 54 for what she DID do was about right last year (especially considering she put up a 69 at SC for a clean SP this year and her SP score at Worlds was better, even with the mistake). It's not her fault others didn't have the same difficulty, even with the mistakes.
    The PCS score held her up - and Agnes as well. It's a matter of opinion. I just didn't see Gracie's SP PCS as high as it was after her meltdown. I stand by my opinion that if it had been anyone but the chosen - Gracie, Agnes, Ashley - their PCS would have plummetted and had them out of the top 10. Gracie's PCS scores in the LP were a joke - but I still feel she deserved to win that portion of the competition. In the end the best two went to Worlds and I have no problem with that. I will be ticked off however if mediocre skates are rewarded with high PCS with an Olympic berth on the line. I say 'an' singular because Ashley and Gracie are going to Sochi barring injury. Watch - at least one of the favorites is going to bomb at least one of their programs - and PCS is going to come to the rescue. Again.

    Quote Originally Posted by yyyskate View Post
    Mirai certainly can perform well, just watch her EX at CoR. when she puts her hearts in her skating, the quality of which is second to none. Please just keep training those jumps and put on one heck of performance at Nationals!
    THIS!

  2. #77
    At the rink. Again. mskater93's Avatar
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    What specific aspects of her PCS score? She scored a 26.34 in PCS for a SP where she had 2 jumping mistakes but didn't give up points on spins or steps. She has excellent SS and TR in comparison to other current US ladies and yet, her PCS at 26.34 was just 0.05 points higher than Caroline Zhang (!!) in the SP last year at Nationals. She was scored behind Gao, Nagasu, Zawadski, and Wagner in PCS and ahead of Cesario, Siraj, Miller, Cain, Wang, and Hicks (and Zhang, Wang, and Cain) if we are going to look at the entire top 12 from last year. Most of the ones she scored ahead of in PCS were in the 24's and 25's, so not appreciable amounts. Of the top 12, Wagner was clean and Cesario was clean, but neither of them landed a 3+3 (Wagner was really the only one who could afford to not do a 3+3 of all the US ladies) while Zawadski was 2nd with a 2A fall, Nagasu got a L2 on her CCoSp, Hicks got 3T<, Gao had a FSSp2 fall, Siraj had 3T <, Miller had 3 Lo << who finished ahead of Gold and Wang had 3Lz fall (10th), Cain 3S < (11th), and Zhang 3Lo <+3Lo << (12th). Like I said, relative to the field, where was she overscored? Look at what she's pulling in internationally, too...

    In the LP, PCS went as follows: Wagner 65.82, Gold 61.35, Zawadski 61.14, Nagasu 60.56, Gao 58.24, Siraj 56.95, Cesario 55.82, Miller 55.20, Hicks 54.58, Wang 53.99, Zhang 53.62 and Cain 53.02. Cesario suffered a little in PCS in the LP as she skated right after Gold who skated like she had a rocket on her back and a firecracker up her butt, but not that it would have made a huge difference for Cesario. Zawadski was VERY close to Gold in PCS in the LP and yet, she had a mess of a second half of that program, and Nagasu was under a point less and she looked like a zombie due to the flu. Gao is a pleasant enough skater, but doesn't have the same power. Again, relative to the field, how was she overscored?

  3. #78
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelisiting View Post
    My personal dream team:
    1) Ashley
    2) Mirai
    3) Samantha
    This is my dream team too. Ashley has earned her ticket to Sochi. Even if she bombs nationals I say put her on the team.

    It'd be great to see Mirai recapture some of that magic she had 4 years ago, skate lights out and make the team after all of the struggles she's gone through these last couple of years.

    Samantha is a breath of fresh air. I love both of her programs and the way she performs. Plus, she's a competitor and that's always great. I don't think she has the skating skills of the top ladies right now (she's a little slow) plus she lacks power and tougher elements BUT I think she's had a fabulous season and it would be amazing if she made the team.

    Ashley is pretty much a lock, Mirai's chances are better after last week but I'm doubtful Samantha will make the team unless a number of skaters bottom out.

    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    In the LP, PCS went as follows: Wagner 65.82, Gold 61.35, Zawadski 61.14, Nagasu 60.56, Gao 58.24, Siraj 56.95, Cesario 55.82, Miller 55.20, Hicks 54.58, Wang 53.99, Zhang 53.62 and Cain 53.02. Cesario suffered a little in PCS in the LP as she skated right after Gold who skated like she had a rocket on her back and a firecracker up her butt, but not that it would have made a huge difference for Cesario. Zawadski was VERY close to Gold in PCS in the LP and yet, she had a mess of a second half of that program, and Nagasu was under a point less and she looked like a zombie due to the flu. Gao is a pleasant enough skater, but doesn't have the same power. Again, relative to the field, how was she overscored?
    I agree about the SP but I still think she was overscored in PCS in the FS. My PCS for Gracie came out to 56.70. My explanation:

    The biggest issue I had with Gracie’s score was her PCS. I gave Gracie credit for her strong skating skills (7.75), solid transitions (7.25) and the fact that she executed her elements well, though I thought the overall performance was very flat until the final minute (7.5). Overall the judges had her lower in transitions (7.14) but higher in skating skills and performance/execution (8.0 and 8.07).

    Now where the judges and I differ greatly (and where many people are crying foul) is on choreography and interpretation. I don’t understand what program they were watching. The program itself is very generic and quite juniorish. She executed it well but there was no underlying sense of musical interpretation, artistry, or connection to the music, the audience, or what she was doing. Her face was completely blank; no kind of performance whatsoever until she was well through the majority of the program. It’s the kind of delivery we see from lower level skaters and that’s why I thought both her choreography and interpretation scores should have reflected that and gave them 6.75 and 6.50 respectively.

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    I hope for fair judging at Nationals, and the top 3 go.
    I agree with the first part. On the second, I think Ashley should go even if she places dead last, and then the two highest finishes not named Ashley Wagner.

  5. #80
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I agree with the first part. On the second, I think Ashley should go even if she places dead last, and then the two highest finishes not named Ashley Wagner.
    This. In no way do I expect Ashley to tank at nationals this year but on the off chance that she did, she definitely deserves to go. She's the only complete package skater the US has right now (jumps, spins, programs, consistency, international reputation, etc.) so it would be suicide to leave her off of the team. She is the best hope the US has for a medal.

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    I agree Ashley should go no matter what.

    I dont think Gold should be a lock the way she is skating this year but I think she still is in reality. Maybe with good reason though, as even skating so so, she is still competitive with some of the Worlds top skaters as her results this year show. Other U.S lady skaters have to skate their best just to achieve similar results, and if they skate subpar will fall way down.

    Nagasu has a good shot if she can build on her COR performance but USFSA does not like her much these days so she will have to really earn it. COR shows Zawadzki both struggles with consistency still, and doesnt even have much scoring potential internationally either (even without her mistakes, her scores wouldnt have been that big there). The USFSA lovefest for her will likely continue though, enough to make the team? We shall see. I was really pulling for Gao but she has done nothing to distinguish herself thus far.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I dont think Gold should be a lock the way she is skating this year but I think she still is in reality. Maybe with good reason though, as even skating so so, she is still competitive with some of the Worlds top skaters as her results this year show.
    I agree with you, although I find it difficult to imagine three people beating Gracie this year. She usually nails one program and can probably score enough in the other to find herself on the podium.

  8. #83
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelisiting View Post
    The only person I see the USFSA putting on the team if they aren't in the top three is Ashley. Ashley has been in the top five at worlds for two years and has won a few grand prixs to prove she's competitive internationally. Beyond Ashley, I think it will just be who skates into the top three. None of the other skaters have a strong enough record where I can see the USFSA deciding to put them on an Olympic team if they aren't in the top three spots. That being said I do think even with a bad skate the judges will find a way to keep Gracie in the top three as well. It's anyone's game after those two. Courtney Hicks and Samantha Cesario are much more consistent overall, but for all their inconsistency when Agnes and Mirai skate well they are rewarded favourably. I don't see Gao making the team short of anyone above really bombing.
    My prediction for nationals:
    1) Gracie
    2) Ashley
    3) Agnes or Hicks
    4) Samantha

    My personal dream team:
    1) Ashley
    2) Mirai
    3) Samantha
    Welcome to Golden Skate, Kelisiting! Post long & often!

  9. #84
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I agree Ashley should go no matter what.

    I dont think Gold should be a lock the way she is skating this year but I think she still is in reality. Maybe with good reason though, as even skating so so, she is still competitive with some of the Worlds top skaters as her results this year show. Other U.S lady skaters have to skate their best just to achieve similar results, and if they skate subpar will fall way down.

    Nagasu has a good shot if she can build on her COR performance but USFSA does not like her much these days so she will have to really earn it. COR shows Zawadzki both struggles with consistency still, and doesnt even have much scoring potential internationally either (even without her mistakes, her scores wouldnt have been that big there). The USFSA lovefest for her will likely continue though, enough to make the team? We shall see. I was really pulling for Gao but she has done nothing to distinguish herself thus far.
    ITA with all of this.

    As much as Gracie has underwhelmed me this season she still has the necessities to finish in the top 10 at Sochi as long as she doesn't completely implode. Even when she's bad she can score better than most. Mirai got 114.93 at COR (5 triples, clean skate); Gracie got 114.98 at NHK (3 triples and a fall). Overall Gracie skates big and whether she's nailing her jumps or sucking, she manages to leave an impression which can't be said for everyone else. I don't think she's earned the right to be a lock for the team but the reality is she's the best bet for good scores internationally (behind Ashley of course).

    If Mirai can replicate her COR performances and add some semblance of life to them, I think she'll be the best bet for that 3rd spot. Agnes is at the bottom of the "potential 3rd spot" heap IMO. She had a good SP but her FS was still subpar. It was better for her but judging it against what will be needed in Sochi, that wasn't good enough. Christina looked promising earlier in the year but it's not coming together for her at all. I'd like to see her make the team but I don't really see it happening anymore unless she shocks everyone at nationals and a few others falter.

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    If anything, Mirai has medalled on the GP circuit once every season for this quadrennial. Has done rather well in her senior B's in deep fields. She should be considered more deserving of a spot than Agnes who only has her junior worlds silver and cup of russia bronze last year for international success. I agree Ashley Wagner is a lock.

    Of the two spots left: Samantha Cesario, Courtney Hicks, Christina Gao, Gracie Gold and Mirai Nagasu.

    Who deserve the spot on past success are Gao, Gold and Nagasu.

    What is going to happen is whoever places highest with Ashley is going. And I sincerely hope it's Mirai

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    nobody is mentioning Polina Edmunds who impresses me greatly - is she just too young/raw to have the potential to make the team?

  12. #87
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gottadance View Post
    nobody is mentioning Polina Edmunds who impresses me greatly - is she just too young/raw to have the potential to make the team?
    I think both Polina and Angela Wang have massive potential. However, as great as they are both are a little too green for Sochi IMO. They lack senior level experience and exposure and that will work against them. If one or both of them have two great skates and others falter, I think they should make the team. But more than likely they'll receive "wait your turn" scores...especially if the favorites for the team have semi-decent skates...

    I won't say it's impossible but I do think it's a bit unlikely either will be chosen unless they steal the show in Boston.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    This. In no way do I expect Ashley to tank at nationals this year but on the off chance that she did, she definitely deserves to go. She's the only complete package skater the US has right now (jumps, spins, programs, consistency, international reputation, etc.) so it would be suicide to leave her off of the team. She is the best hope the US has for a medal.
    Yep. They would have to "hold her up". Which is sort of the problem with using only Nats to pick the team. The Japanese method of using the entire season as criteria seems better. If Mao had a bad day at nationals, they would not have to play games with scores to keep her on the team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    I won't say it's impossible but I do think it's a bit unlikely either will be chosen unless they steal the show in Boston.
    It's going to be hard for them to do so. Fans are going to show up ready to cheer for their favorites (Ashley, Gracie, Mirai) and even a great performance from Angela or Polina is going to get a tepid response because a lot of the fans don't know much about them. I can easily see those two going clean in the SP and scoring < 60.

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    1. Ashley
    2. Samantha
    3. Gracie

    I'm curious to see how Polina will do at nationals. I absolutely love her SP this season and she's a joy to watch!

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