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Thread: Reworking Ashley Wagner's Olympic Season LP into a great program, podium material

  1. #76
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Changing her 3-3 to a 3-2-2 will not somehow save her the energy.
    Yes it will, especially since that 3-jump combo would no longer be in the second half. Have you ever done these moves or at least talked in depth with female competitors who are? You should at least read up on the science behind twitch muscle fibers and look at Ashley's build and her history. While it's not on the same level as a guy doing a Quad, the principle is the same. Every skater has 'X' amount of "energy". You do a Quad and it takes more out of you than any other move, leaving you with less energy for the remainder of the program. Hence why adding a Quad into a program makes the entire program more difficult. Doing that Triple-Triple for Ashley (and most other women) is the highest expenditure of energy.

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    And with no 3-3, her PCS won't be as maxed out because her perceived difficulty will be less than skaters who are including a 3-3.
    No it won't. You only need the 3-3 for the SP. Once you've done it there, the judges know you can do it. Endurance, execution of elements, and PCS are the focuses of the LP. A 3-3 combo can add excitement to a program, which helps PCS, but it's only one method of doing so. A clean 7-Triple program without a 3-3 is perfectly fine as long as the program is good. Wagner should have been focusing this whole season on getting her PCS at or near the level of Yu-Na/Asada/Kostner. A bad program with a 3-3 isn't going to do it (especially with mistakes) and she has just been losing ground all year.

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Changing her 3-3 to a 3-2-2 will not somehow save her the energy to cleanly execute her current 2nd half with an extra triple and double axel. That makes no sense.
    I agree, she needs to stick with the 3-3 to stay competitive with everyone else. If she doesn't the judges are going to push her down, because the perceived difficulty will be lower. While I do think Wagner is fabulous and inspiring, I would find it hard to believe that she (or any skater) could execute 5 triples and 2 double axels (with +GOE) in the 2nd half. The 10% bonus is great in the second half, but only if you can cleanly execute the jumps. If not, it defeats the purpose. Also, when Ashley gets tired or loses confidence, she tends to two-foot her landings. So if she had any problems earlier in the program, the whole thing could just escalate into a big mess.

  3. #78
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    As I predicted, the Triple-Triple attempts in the LP did nothing but hurt her score all year long.

    She needs to start playing the game better. A score of over 140 can be obtained without a Triple-Triple. She has such potential. If only she was given the right vehicle.

  4. #79
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    She wants to challenge herself, let it go.

    140 without a 3-3?! As in outside of US nationals? Right. She is no Kostner.

  5. #80
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    A score of over 140 can be obtained without a Triple-Triple.
    hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......... ..................

  6. #81
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    She wants to challenge herself, let it go.
    There many different ways to challenge oneself. The SP is better for challenging a 3-3. The challenge in the LP should be focused on the choreography, the transitions, backloaded jumps, and spin base values. That's what is most intelligent for her.

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    140 without a 3-3?! As in outside of US nationals? Right. She is no Kostner.
    3-3 doesn't mean anything. Everything is worth a certain amount of points and a heavily backloaded 7-Triple program with all of the double jumps maximized is worth more points than most standard jump layouts that include a 3-3.

    If Kostner skated that kind of layout perfectly she could score 150. Ashley can get over 140 if she were to deliver it.

  7. #82
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    If Wagner did your layout of jumps plus the 14.5 she had for BV of other elements, her BV would have been 59.54. Say she got GOE of 10 points for a clean skate which is actually pretty generour, she would have had a TES score of 69.54. So her PCS score would have had to be 70.46, without a 3-3.... and unless she pulled some Lipnitskaia craziness, or somehow transformed into a Kostner, there's no way she would have cleared 140.

    And yet again, Wagner made a mistake on her 3-jump combo because she was running out of steam. And you want to add another jumping pass in there?

    But again, that's besides the point... Ashley sees herself as needing a 3-3 to be competitive, and she does if she wants to win, or at least get credibility for at least trying to hang with the high-difficulty skaters.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    There many different ways to challenge oneself. The SP is better for challenging a 3-3. The challenge in the LP should be focused on the choreography, the transitions, backloaded jumps, and spin base values. That's what is most intelligent for her.
    She needs to focus on what she is physically capable of, too. You wouldn't ask Mao to backload a 3A, would you? Asking Wagner to execute 5 jumping passes in a row is suicidal, not to mention bad choreography having 5/7 jumping passes back to back.

    Not to mention, it makes no sense for you (or for her layout right now, with a 2A+3T to begin with that covers the axel requirement) to have a 3L-2Ax when a 3L-2Lx is easier to execute and gets more points. Heck, even a 3L-2Tx gets 7.04 points to 7.39 (3L-2Lx gets her 7.59.).. and is far easier.

  9. #84
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    I don't see Ashley ever hitting 140 points even with a 3-3. She's about reached her peaked and needs lots of help to ever get on a Worlds podium. If the only way she can skate clean is not doing the 3-3 she won't be competitive not just internationally but at home and i can't see her ever getting a reliable 3-3.

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    her BV would have been 59.54.
    No, the base value is 61.14. We are talking about a program with the correct spins and footwork and choreography. Don't confuse what's going on here.

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    And yet again, Wagner made a mistake on her 3-jump combo because she was running out of steam. And you want to add another jumping pass in there?
    Of course she messed up her 3-jump combo, it came at the end of the program. I wisely put it at the start of the program. Another jumping pass isn't being "added in". A jumping pass from the first half of the program is being moved to the second half of the program, in place of a spin or footwork sequence. In Ashley's Samson and Delilah program, she does 6 jumping passes, 2 spins, and a footwork sequence before she goes into the last jumping pass of her program. That's the same as what I have. The difference is that my program is worth more points, both in base value and potential/probable GOE.

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    She needs to focus on what she is physically capable of, too. You wouldn't ask Mao to backload a 3A, would you? Asking Wagner to execute 5 jumping passes in a row is suicidal.
    Why are you talking about backloading a 3A? Stop talking about completely unrelated things.

    5 jumping passes "in a row" in the second half is entirely possible. That's what pretty much EVERY Men's program does. Their programs last longer too. Hello? This season Lipnitskaia has done 5 Triples in the second half of her program, one of them on the end of Double Axel. Your argument that a woman can't do it is baseless.

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Not to mention, it makes no sense for to have a 3Lo-2A when a 3L+2Lo is easier to execute and gets more points.
    Can you stop repeating your same wrong points over and over and ruining my thread? 3Lo+2Lo is not easier for her and it does not get more points. 3Lo-2A has a more impressive look and it pulls in higher +GOE. It also gives her two double axels in the program, so that there is no penalty if one of them doesn't happen for whatever reason. I've said these things many times throughout the thread and you still don't get it and it is wasting everyone's time.

  11. #86
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    Not arguing a woman can't do it but Ashley isn't a man or Lipnitskaia who can reel off jumps and tack on triples whenever she feels like. You completely overestimate her abilities. She is barely capable of getting 4 jumping passes in a row done (often she will UR one, due to fatigue). 5 jumping passes in a row is suicide - if she messes one up then she has little time or breaks to recover mentally.

    And the base value I mentioned was for the program she did at Worlds where all her other elements received 14.5 BV, for parity.

  12. #87
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    Also LOL at "Ashley does 6 jumping passes before going into her 7th and final jumping pass". She must be the only female skater to do that!

  13. #88
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    I suppose theoretically she could hit 140 with 7 triples but I don't see her ever getting enough +GOE on her jumps to do so, particularly when it is going to be offset by -GOE on the flutz.

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    Yeah and certainly not by incorporating two sequences which devalue to 80%.

    If the sequence percentage were negated, I could picture her getting 140 if she were absolutely perfect.

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Not arguing a woman can't do it but Ashley isn't a man or Lipnitskaia who can reel off jumps and tack on triples whenever she feels like. You completely overestimate her abilities. She is barely capable of getting 4 jumping passes in a row done (often she will UR one, due to fatigue). 5 jumping passes in a row is suicide - if she messes one up then she has little time or breaks to recover mentally.

    And the base value I mentioned was for the program she did at Worlds where all her other elements received 14.5 BV, for parity.
    What about 2011 Miki Ando? Ashley could follow her lead and take a coffee break with posing, slow transitions/footwork, and spins, then reel off the jumps.

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