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Thread: Reworking Ashley Wagner's Olympic Season LP into a great program, podium material

  1. #61
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    I agree. Interesting(ish) but also strange thread.

    The podium will be in sight if she nails her elements and emotes with energy, power, etc etc in the final 45 seconds. HAS to nail the elements. In singles, depressingly, I don't find that much finessing of programs really matters.

  2. #62
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    I disagree that finessing of programs doesn't matter. There is a reason why Lipnitskaya is suddenly a huge contender - because her Long Program has made people FEEL something very strongly. Of course she has great technical ability as well, but so do Radionova and Pogorilaya, and they will not be getting the PCS of Lipnitskaya. The judging is almost never accurate, and maybe certain artistic elements won't be properly rewarded, but you need to give yourself every opportunity.

    Ashley's program as it is now will not put her where she wants to be. She isn't "controlling her own destiny". She is waiting for others to make mistakes. Her PCS should be better than where they have been all season. She has the maturity and ability and momentum and political backing to skate programs that will produce a 70 on that mark. But her program isn't good enough. Even if she skates perfectly, people won't FEEL the same about her skating. They will appreciate, they will respect, and they may be excited to some extent, but they won't LOVE. Ashley needs to move people more. She needs a better program to do that.

  3. #63
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    She needs to worry about peaking not reworking her programs even with her two footed 3-3 if she already peaked wont help anyways
    spend less time on shopping, making statements for endorsement and money objectives and train, she has Gracie always in her back
    Gracie hopefully will finally knock her in Nationals as first place

    her PCS should definitely decrease by Olympic, she is at par with Sotnikova, Gold etc.
    it will be a travesty if she gets a higher PCS than Kostner and Julia, that would be a joke !!!

  4. #64
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    it will be a travesty if she gets a higher PCS than Kostner and Julia, that would be a joke !!!
    No it wouldn't be. She has the ability.

    But clearly her lack of great material is exactly why you feel this way.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    No it wouldn't be. She has the ability.

    But clearly her lack of great material is exactly why you feel this way.
    her programs this year are a lackluster, it makes her worn out too
    and she already doesn't have the best basics to begin with

    this would worked with Gracie better who has speed, power because of this can skate to any music
    by Olympics rolls in , Sotnikova should even out or pass her in PCS , rightfully Gracie should too

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    her PCS should definitely decrease by Olympic, she is at par with Sotnikova, Gold etc.
    it will be a travesty if she gets a higher PCS than Kostner and Julia, that would be a joke !!!
    Sotnikova, Gold, and Ashley should all get better PCS than Julia.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Sotnikova, Gold, and Ashley should all get better PCS than Julia.
    Word. Unless they bomb, they should all be getting higher than Julia. Wagner and Sotnikova in particular should be getting at least 5 points higher PCS than Julia in a relatively clean FS.

    Of course, it will be on Russian ice, and given CoR, one can imagine that the PCS scores will favour Julia. If she can get a PB with 3 triples landed, she'll probably be on par with Wagner/Sotnikova come Sochi.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    I disagree that finessing of programs doesn't matter. There is a reason why Lipnitskaya is suddenly a huge contender - because her Long Program has made people FEEL something very strongly. Of course she has great technical ability as well, but so do Radionova and Pogorilaya, and they will not be getting the PCS of Lipnitskaya.
    Her programs are her best yet, but let's be real... it's her 3Z-3T and 2A-3T that are making her a contender, when her main competitors are struggling to land even 5 or 6 triples.

    I am really looking forward to the GPF as we will finally get to see how Julia stacks up against the other Russians and Wagner. Mao should win it, but 2-6th place might be an early preview of what the bronze battle could look like.

    I would certainly not be surprised if Radionova defeated Lipnitskaia.

  9. #69
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    The clock is ticking Ashley.

  10. #70
    Custom Title skateluvr's Avatar
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    I agree clock is ticking. I think Ashley could get the bronze with the the increased jump content, but her Lp should have been black swan with new costume, new look, and she'd get the PCS she deserves. She is a very polished skater. I expect Caro to struggle, so Ashley has to contend with Kim, who likely gets gold despite very meh programs so far, Mao, a favorite who gets higher PCS than anyone but YuNa and Julia who clearly is a competitor with a package the judges love this year. The music is the whole deal. And she is good, very good-the best Russian skating now. So sadly I see Ashley skating her heart out and getting 4-6. I love her. I feel she is a beautiful skater with very good jump technique. Philip Mills was the choreographer for her. I feel she deserves the best-she's worked so hard to be as good as she is. good luck, ash. She must be clean to have any chance.

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    It's insane to think that Ashley could do 5 triples and 2 double axels in her second half when it's apparent that she's having trouble dealing with 4 triples and a 2A. Look at her GPF second half of her FS... and you want to *add* more jump content to that second half?!? Time might be ticking for her to get consistency but let's not turn her into a ticking time bomb, shall we?

  12. #72
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Yet again you ignore everything that has been said. You really don't get it. Ashley's Triple-Triple in the first half tires her out more and she is trying to do a three-jump combo late into the second half of her program, which she has messed up all season. 5 Triples and 2 double axels in the second half is the best layout for her. As I've said a hundred times now, the only difference in that second half anyway would be a 3Toe+2Axel sequence instead of a Layback spin, and no 3-jump combo in the second half. With no Triple-Triple in the program and no three-jump combo in the second half, it would actually be easier for her AND score more points, both technically and on PCS (given the changed music cut and choreography edits).

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    Yet again you ignore everything that has been said. You really don't get it. Ashley's Triple-Triple in the first half tires her out more and she is trying to do a three-jump combo late into the second half of her program, which she has messed up all season. 5 Triples and 2 double axels in the second half is the best layout for her. As I've said a hundred times now, the only difference in that second half anyway would be a 3Toe+2Axel sequence instead of a Layback spin, and no 3-jump combo in the second half. With no Triple-Triple in the program and no three-jump combo in the second half, it would actually be easier for her AND score more points, both technically and on PCS (given the changed music cut and choreography edits).
    Changing her 3-3 to a 3-2-2 will not somehow save her the energy to cleanly execute her current 2nd half with an extra triple and double axel. That makes no sense. And with no 3-3, her PCS won't be as maxed out because her perceived difficulty will be less than skaters who are including a 3-3. You clearly do not understand Ashley's capabilities. I cannot think of any female skaters in history who have thought to attempt 5 triples (including the 3 hardest) and two 2As all back to back (in the 2nd half no less), and while it's sweet of you to think Ashley can do that, you are sorely mistaken. I'm sure Ashley's camp will be contacting you shortly for your stellar choreographic services.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Changing her 3-3 to a 3-2-2 will not somehow save her the energy.
    Yes it will, especially since that 3-jump combo would no longer be in the second half. Have you ever done these moves or at least talked in depth with female competitors who are? You should at least read up on the science behind twitch muscle fibers and look at Ashley's build and her history. While it's not on the same level as a guy doing a Quad, the principle is the same. Every skater has 'X' amount of "energy". You do a Quad and it takes more out of you than any other move, leaving you with less energy for the remainder of the program. Hence why adding a Quad into a program makes the entire program more difficult. Doing that Triple-Triple for Ashley (and most other women) is the highest expenditure of energy.

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    And with no 3-3, her PCS won't be as maxed out because her perceived difficulty will be less than skaters who are including a 3-3.
    No it won't. You only need the 3-3 for the SP. Once you've done it there, the judges know you can do it. Endurance, execution of elements, and PCS are the focuses of the LP. A 3-3 combo can add excitement to a program, which helps PCS, but it's only one method of doing so. A clean 7-Triple program without a 3-3 is perfectly fine as long as the program is good. Wagner should have been focusing this whole season on getting her PCS at or near the level of Yu-Na/Asada/Kostner. A bad program with a 3-3 isn't going to do it (especially with mistakes) and she has just been losing ground all year.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Changing her 3-3 to a 3-2-2 will not somehow save her the energy to cleanly execute her current 2nd half with an extra triple and double axel. That makes no sense.
    I agree, she needs to stick with the 3-3 to stay competitive with everyone else. If she doesn't the judges are going to push her down, because the perceived difficulty will be lower. While I do think Wagner is fabulous and inspiring, I would find it hard to believe that she (or any skater) could execute 5 triples and 2 double axels (with +GOE) in the 2nd half. The 10% bonus is great in the second half, but only if you can cleanly execute the jumps. If not, it defeats the purpose. Also, when Ashley gets tired or loses confidence, she tends to two-foot her landings. So if she had any problems earlier in the program, the whole thing could just escalate into a big mess.

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