I don't think so. She had a great competition here but I don't think an international panel would have scored her quite this high. I could see her winning silver though.
Well, if we are including Nationals, Mao scored 140.62 back in 2006.
Akiko's PCS was 72+ here. I believe higher than Kostner has gotten internationally and very close to Kim's at Worlds. Considering she has never scored near these two in PCS internationally, her scores here, as all National ones, should be viewed in context.
No... As much as I love Akiko's skating, she still seems to be cautious going into her jumps and messes up in major competitions (I would love to be proved wrong, though!) I could see her winning bronze and maybe even silver if others falter.
The Comeback Kid
Not gold but other colors. Akiko does not have the difficulty of kim or asada, she needs a 3-3 on her Lp to dream of gold. Think about it if Julia goes perfect with her level of difficulty, she will win over a perfect Akiko internationally. Kim yuna can have one error on her double axel if she lands her hughe 3-3 she will beat clean Akiko internationally. If Mao lands ger 3a even if she underrotates her double loops she will beat Akiko.
However, if Akiko perform like this is bad news for every woman if they make multiple mistakes
Ashley should take notice
Six Point Zero
Akiko's win was well deserved, but she's definitely not get 72+ PCS from international judges, not even with an Olympic bonus I'm afraid. But I would say she is a solid podium contender if she can build on this stunning win. Let's all calm down and remember this was only one competition--a nationals competition in particular. Predicting the future based on one data point is fraught with perils.
I think so. Because Olympic scoring can be just as crazy as any Nationals, if not more so.
Regardless of that, I think she would need both Kim and Asada to skate less-than-perfect... but both have shown sub-par performances (by their standards) this season. So perhaps it's possible, and yes she could take it.
I'd rate her chances higher than Kostner's, and at least as good as Lipnitskaia's.
I agree that Ashley should take notice! Although Ashley is the more consistent skater, if Akiko skates like she did at Nationals, Ashley will lose IMO. Ashley's FP is just not too good....
Originally Posted by Minze2001
Yes. At Skate Canada, she scored around a 66 for PCS for a near clean skate. I would think that she would score around a 67-68 at Sochi if she goes clean. But a 70+ seems unrealistic IMO.
Originally Posted by Krislite
Six Point Zero
Now this I would disagree with. Lipnitskaia's chances for the podium and OGM are much higher than Akiko's. Now if the Olympics were in Japan, it would be different. But remember the Games are in Russia, and Lipnitskaia is the far more consistent skater internationally.
Originally Posted by YesWay
on what ? based on a inflated Nationals scoring ?
she wont get that high of a TES nor PCS internatonally
she'll get hammered by UR and lower PCS marks, she is a hit or miss skater anyways
and she wont beat Mao anytime internationally
its laughable that just because she won nationals shes a gold contender ? it could have been a fluke
Kostner's chances is still higher than Suzuki's
even Gold and Wagner
Akiko doesn't have great jumps nor difficult jumps. Her spins are not great either. There is no way she'll get that kind of TES outside Japan. (Actually even in Japan. Remember NHK?) I don't think her PCS will increase that high either.
Honestly the only reason she scored that high is because they wanted Mao to score 150+. Too bad that Mao couldn't utilize the chance.
Akiko is a legitimate OGM contender.
If she skated like she did here, clean SP + clean LP. 3 triples in the SP, 7 triples in the LP, only 3 girls in the world who can potentially beat her.
Carolina is really inconsistent, would need a clean SP and clean LP to beat this. So no
Mao is attempting something really stupid, and just lost badly here, so no.
Kim will need to be perfect in both phases because Kim only has 6 triples in the LP. She can do it and have done it several times, but it's also hard.
So yes, Akiko is now in the dark horse category for the Gold medal.
I'm hoping she didn't bring everything she got to JNats. She needs to bring these performances to Sochi.
You have a point.
Originally Posted by Krislite
On the other hand, Suzuki's experience and maturity might provide a mental advantage (same for Asada, Kim, etc).
On the other other hand, the fearlessness of youth may provide a mental advantage.
I won't be betting on any results...
Congrats to Akiko but come on now, her PCS was less than 1 point different than Yuna's Les Mis at WC this year. That should tell you how over-inflated JNats scoring is.
As another poster said, the JSF was probably just trying to score Mao over 150 but she couldn't give them the chance.