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Thread: Who will be 3rd among the ladies in Sochi?

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    Who will be 3rd among the ladies in Sochi?

    Caro?Julia? Ashley? Maybe Gold?
    Soooooooooo many contenders

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    Well, based on today's crazy judging in Rostelecom, FOR SURE JULIA unless she bombs completely.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sara View Post
    Well, based on today's crazy judging in Rostelecom, FOR SURE JULIA unless she bombs completely.
    ITA. To be fair Julia's SP performance is worthy of a bronze positioning over Kostner. But not a 5-point lead.

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    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy
    ITA. To be fair Julia's SP performance is worthy of a bronze positioning over Kostner. But not a 5-point lead.
    That's the stupid part about all of this. Julia is a medal thread for Sochi. But she is because of her own strengths and consistency. Without the bull*hit judging.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    That's the stupid part about all of this. Julia is a medal thread for Sochi. But she is because of her own strengths and consistency. Without the bull*hit judging.
    Exactly. As I said, I would love for a lady with 7 triples to finally get on the Olympic podium again (and even win if Kim/Asada make errors). It would be a case of Lipinski winning again -- not as good an artist as Kwan but outjumps her. I've always valued the sport aspect of figure skating, and Julia winning/medalling would not be a bad thing. In fact, it would be a very good thing.

    That being said, the PCS scores given to her are not consistent with what she'd be given anywhere other than Russia, and that's a bad thing. She (and every other skater) should be scoring what they score on Russian ice as they would score anywhere else, although that's obviously the ideal case. But if there is inflation, it shouldn't be that blatant.

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    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy
    Exactly. As I said, I would love for a lady with 7 triples to finally get on the Olympic podium again (and even win if Kim/Asada make errors). It would be a case of Lipinski winning again -- not as good an artist as Kwan but outjumps her. I've always valued the sport aspect of figure skating, and Julia winning/medalling would not be a bad thing. In fact, it would be a very good thing.
    Even as a huge Mao fan - agreed. Julia has all the goods to put down to amazing performances that are worthy of a medal, and if she skates better than Mao or Yuna, she should be able to beat them (although I can't see it happening with Yuna, and I still think Mao can afford some smaller mistakes to still beat her). Her difficult jumps could really equal out the advantage the top 3 have over her in the PCS - I would just love it if the judges would realize that this advantages are still there.

    That being said, the PCS scores given to her are not consistent with what she'd be given anywhere other than Russia, and that's a bad thing. She (and every other skater) should be scoring what they score on Russian ice as they would score anywhere else, although that's obviously the ideal case. But if there is inflation, it shouldn't be that blatant.
    The GPF should be really interesting - especially as she skates against Mao in Japan. I'm already a little afraid too of the outcry scoring like this at the Olympics could have, especially if it influences the placements.

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    I fully expect Mao to defeat Julia in Japan. However, I would hope she earns the victory. I can expect something like the CoR SP to happen there -- on home ice Mao's PCS will be inflated, and (like Kostner) a main competitor's PCS like Julia's or Ashley's will be held back.

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    I think that it will be either Yuna or Julia, then Mao and Kostner will be edged out.

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    Technically best skater is Julia. She is repeating her lutz and her 5 jumps are in the second half of the program. Her spins are good and usually getting very good GOE. Her weakness is 2A. She is hiding this with 2A+3T+2T which getting more GOE than solo 2A.
    Ashley is repeating 3flip and 3loop so she didn't lose much to Julia but she is losing some base value for 3lo+2a. 5.10+3.30 she should get 8.4 (with bonus 9.2x) but only getting 7.39x. Her weakness is underrotated jumps and two footing.

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    So far I have Mao third. But we will see what happens at the GPF.

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    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy
    I fully expect Mao to defeat Julia in Japan. However, I would hope she earns the victory. I can expect something like the CoR SP to happen there -- on home ice Mao's PCS will be inflated, and (like Kostner) a main competitor's PCS like Julia's or Ashley's will be held back.
    I'm not too sure how much Julia will be held back, especially since we don't really have a pattern yet about what to really expect from her scores. Generous UR calls (or better the lack therefor) for Mao are another thing though...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    I'm not too sure how much Julia will be held back, especially since we don't really have a pattern yet about what to really expect from her scores. Generous UR calls (or better the lack therefor) for Mao are another thing though...
    Well, I would think the judging would be a bit more honourable than what we've seen at CoR. I think with this performance, Julia would be about 70 points -- and bearing in mind a tech specialist outside of Russia probably wouldn't have ignored her flutz, perhaps 68-69 points.

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    The funny thing is that we assume Yuna is certain of getting the gold and Mao will be on the podium, but none of these assumptions are certain. While it seemed so obvious how the podium would look like after 2013 worlds it's no longer this way.

    I can say for sure, that if everyone skates clean it will be Mao who'll take the gold, but we all know that's not likely to happen (though I hope she will perform a clean program so much!). She will get huge scores even when she makes mistakes but it may happen she has a really off-day and underperforms so much below her standart she'll finish behinf the podium.
    As for Yuna, we all assume she'll skate clean, but that's not a given either. She had a minor injury and she won't have such an opportunity to test her programs before the olympics. If she makes mistakes, her scores may go even down to the range 200+. And imagine a situation, when she misses her combo in the short, while Mao, Caro and Julia go clean. Highly unlikely (probability somewhere between 0,5-1%) but hey, it still may happen! I wouldn't say she's more than 50% sure of getting the gold.
    Mao is the only one that fully controls her destiny, as others can skate clean and she still may beat them if she herself is clean. However, how often did it happen in the past? What if the pressure gets to her and she'll screw up her short as she did at worlds? She may as well win the olympic gold as finish as low as 5th.
    Caro is a similar example to Mao. She could win with others if she's clean but we've seen how she skated at 2 past olympic games. She improved her consistency and seem's to have more mental strenght than ever but consistency has always been her issue. As of now, she's been beaten by few russian ladies already and that's not a good sign.

    Out of other skaters I would also say that Julia has the highest chance to medal. I don't think Gracie is a contender because of her nerves but Ashley may upset somebody and take the bronze. Julia has the technical ability and her programs this year are getting her huge PCS.

    I'm really happy it all changed since last worlds, because everything seemed to be so predictable. For me, the most likely scenario is still Yuna getting the gold, Mao silver and Caro or Julia the bronze but it can change drastically. I know we're not talking about wishes, but my ideal is Mao first, Yuna silver and a huuuuuuge surprise with the 3rd place. Maybe Gold, Sotnikova or Julia.

    My final answer to the question - it can be anyone out of Yuna, Mao, Caro, Julia, Ashley, but there are many others who could pull a Sarah's surprise. However, that would mean the event was rather poor, so let's hope it's one of the ladies above.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sara View Post
    Well, based on today's crazy judging in Rostelecom, FOR SURE JULIA unless she bombs completely.
    True. Unless Julia falls three times she probably has atleast the bronze based on the scoring here. Actually given that she usually skates cleanly, and given the obvious Russianatic scoring we can now expect in Sochi, she probably has a great shot at the gold. Yu Na Kim will have to skate perfectly to deny her. Asada never skates perfectly, so she is probably toast if Julia does her usual clean performance combined with the huge Russian boost.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cherryy View Post
    I can say for sure, that if everyone skates clean it will be Mao who'll take the gold
    Isnt her base value only a few points above Kim this year ( as opposed to 10 points higher in the long program alone like last year). If that is the case a clean Kim would still beat a clean Asada.

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