Who will be 3rd among the ladies in Sochi? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Who will be 3rd among the ladies in Sochi?

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Isn't Julia already crowned Olympic Champion? :biggrin: So the real question is, who will be off the podium: Kostner or Asada?

Since we all love to extrapolate on just one or two competition results, I guess that means Kostner is gonna be off the podium...

Kostner generally skates well enough to win when others also make mistakes, which is why she has never scored 200+. If Julia, Adelina, Ashley, Akiko, or Gracie actually hit two solid programs they can beat Kostner's usual form.
 

elee63

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 22, 2013
Technically best skater is Julia. She is repeating her lutz and her 5 jumps are in the second half of the program. Her spins are good and usually getting very good GOE. Her weakness is 2A. She is hiding this with 2A+3T+2T which getting more GOE than solo 2A.
Ashley is repeating 3flip and 3loop so she didn't lose much to Julia but she is losing some base value for 3lo+2a. 5.10+3.30 she should get 8.4 (with bonus 9.2x) but only getting 7.39x. Her weakness is underrotated jumps and two footing.


Meh. Never was impressed by her jumps, kind of awkwardly/amateurish and rushed at times. She may get the revolutions and distance and whatever other standard you may have to wrack up the numbers, but they never give me a release - that "Ahhhhh" feeling that a senior ladies' jumps should. They don't feel concrete to me. Effortless my ***. The swing in the arms gets me every time...

What made me a fan were the skating skills and transitions. She's got things to work on sure, but the choreo isn't just choreo when she skates it.

She seems to know how to extend and use her body to express the music. Her coach wasn't kidding when she was bragging that her girls' transitions would overshadow a US ladies' transitions anyday.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Kostner generally skates well enough to win when others also make mistakes, which is why she has never scored 200+. If Julia, Adelina, Ashley, Akiko, or Gracie actually hit two solid programs they can beat Kostner's usual form.

I mostly agree but Gracie and Akiko are more inconsistent than Kostner so I see no point in considering one of those two skating perfectly and Kostner skating just ok. The odds of that are incredibly low. Gracie has not been anywhere near 200 points either. Suzuki hasn't ever done it (well maybe WTT but I don't really count that) and doesn't come close nearly as often as Kostner does.
 

elee63

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 22, 2013
Conclusion:

It's up for grabs people. You can argue it whatever way you want, but no one will know for sure.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I hope Julia's FS today brings people back down to earth a bit, especially with regards to her guaranteed victory over Wagner and the like. I never wish ill on a skater but part of me was hoping she would mess up just so some of you here would get your heads out of the clouds. Of course, she still scored 2.5 points higher PCS than her PB for that disastrous skate, so inflation will still be in full effect. But a technical skate like that will surely keep her off the podium.

Like Gold, I hope this takes off some of the pressure and she can still draw positives like winning a second gold (even if undeserved) and a PB in the SP (even though 72 points was undeserved). And of course the positive that she has a considerable PCS boost on home ice.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I don't think people have said Julia is a lock for anything except a lock for the Russian Olympic team which IMO she still is. I think the team is almost locked as Julia and Adelina at this point, and Anna P. will have to do something spectacular to steal that 2nd spot from Adelina. Tuktamysheva is right out of it.
 

koatcue

Medalist
Joined
Aug 31, 2011
Country
Russia
Nobody said anything about her winning gold. I think she might be in the run for bronze.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Some were touting her as a sure fire winner of bronze, regardless of how Wagner/Gold/Kostner/Suzuki skate, and some were even suggesting silver. And thanks to the SP inflation some even said she has a shot to win. Eg if Yu Na isn't clean Julia will win, as if Julia herself wasn't prone to errors (as we saw as Junior Worlds, COR free skate, Russian nationals...). The expectations piled on her were tremendous so I'm actually thankful she had a flawed skate or she would face immeasurable pressure going into Sochi instead of just doing her thing.

Too many perfect skates isn't a good thing. This gives her room to improve and ensures she won't get too comfortable.
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
Which doesn't mean that after one clean comp, people won't hype her up to whatever again.
 

koatcue

Medalist
Joined
Aug 31, 2011
Country
Russia
So now we know how she skates under immense pressure on home ice...

Hope it won't be the case there..Hope she'll learn how to deal with it. She is so young! And without such experience, so that's a good thing to make mistakes at 1 event and learn how to avoid them at another more important one. She is a very hardworking girl and I think it'll pay off..COR was just an experience, very important I should tell..:)
 

lcd

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 11, 2007
Was it immense pressure? She had a very strong lead and tremendous support. I chalk it up to youth and inexperience. She seems such a strong competitor in general that I would expect her to channel this disappointment into intense training and would look for her to come out guns blazing at GPF and Russian Nationals.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
There are plenty of competitions before Sochi for Julia to shake off this performance. Hopefully she isn't too exhausted to continue skating well. Between the summer comps, 3 GPs, Nationals, Euros, Olympics, and Worlds that is a very busy season.
 

bump

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 15, 2013
Julia Lipnitskaia...although she very well could win the gold medal if Yu-na magically head-cases and falls or steps out of a jump or two. Unlikely, but it could happen. Mao...eh, I somehow doubt she can win gold...she has too many issues with her jumps (falling, two-footing, hand down, under-rotations).
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
By what do you mean "headcases"? As in make errors? Because all the top skaters have in that case "headcased" at some point or another (most recently, Kanako and Julia). To use Kim and headcase in the same sentence is weird and even more insulting that when such terminology is used for any skater, given her remarkable consistency (although she's had her problems like 2010 Worlds).
 

Robeye

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
By what do you mean "headcases"? As in make errors? Because all the top skaters have in that case "headcased" at some point or another (most recently, Kanako and Julia). To use Kim and headcase in the same sentence is weird and even more insulting that when such terminology is used for any skater, given her remarkable consistency (although she's had her problems like 2010 Worlds).
That wasn't headcasing. That was mental exhaustion after an unbelievable Olympic campaign.

And she came back from something like seventh after the SP (not even in the final group in the Free) to get within hailing distance of the gold medal by winning the FS, ultimately taking silver. So she didn't go home without her loot, even if she was zombied out. :biggrin:

If that's headcasing, I know plenty of skaters who should get in line for some of that. ;)

As an aside: why is Yuna held to such different standards? People point to that competition and say that she bombed. Bombed? She scored over 190, one of only two skaters to do so (the other being Mao's winning performance). Given scoring inflation, I wouldn't be at all surprised if that were equivalent to a 200 point score today.

Any other skater gets to that scoring level, whether Mao or Julia or Ashley, and people start losing their minds on forums, and suddenly all manner of predictions are being bandied about that the skater in question is going to podium or even win Olympic gold. With Yuna, on the other hand, the reaction for a similarly scored performance is: yawn, that was crap, ya think she's done...?

Maybe I'm just antsy and feeling out of sorts because I haven't seen her skate in a while and I need my fix. But I'm hoping that she gets to a good start at Golden Spin two weeks from now, with performances that will force people to snap out of their collective amnesia and remember just who they're dealing with. :cool:

(I know that you were being generally complimentary, CanadianSkaterGuy. I'm just riffing off your post. :))

EDIT: To answer the OP's question, I think Caro, Ashley and Julia are fighting for bronze. It's difficult to say. At the beginning of the season, I thought Caro was a podium favorite. But strangely, everything about her Olympic campaign seems somewhat tentative and passive. This includes her programs, her (lack of) energy, the lack of bravery in her layout (3t-3t? In an Olympic year? Really?), her costumes, even her post-performance demeanor. It's like she's daydreaming, and someone needs to snap open some salts of ammonia under her nose. Caro has never been one of my favorite skaters, but I've always respected her quality, and expected her to step up in what could be her last hurrah. She hasn't, at least not yet, which I find somewhat inexplicable.

Ashley and Julia are both fighters, and it's possible that this may be the quality necessary to overcome Caro's natural advantages in both athletic and artistic talent.

I believe the OP has the right idea about one thing, though: IMO, the competition for bronze may be the most closely fought battle for the ladies in Sochi.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I would really like to know what headcasing is. Does it mean putting out a subpar performance when you are known for consistency? Putting out consistently poor performances? Putting out great performances and then messing up on an easy element?
 

Amei

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
Was it immense pressure? She had a very strong lead and tremendous support. I chalk it up to youth and inexperience. She seems such a strong competitor in general that I would expect her to channel this disappointment into intense training and would look for her to come out guns blazing at GPF and Russian Nationals.

Me too, what I liked about the poor performance from Julia, is that in the kiss and cry after her scores were announced and she won, she was still visibly upset about her performance
 

Robeye

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
I would really like to know what headcasing is. Does it mean putting out a subpar performance when you are known for consistency? Putting out consistently poor performances? Putting out great performances and then messing up on an easy element?
There was some extensive discussion of the topic many months back. Here were some of my views on the topic: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?41083-Plushenko-plans-to-compete-in-team-amp-individual-events-in-Sochi&p=751185&highlight=#post751185

This was one of the money lines:


-In my experience, in order for someone to be justifiably described as a head case, the athlete must exhibit a chronic pattern of underperformance, that cannot be explained in more mundane ways (e.g. injury, or bereavement, physical change or depletion or exhaustion, etc.), and displayed over a body of performances sufficient in extent to statistically rule out the not-insignificant level of serendipity inherent in competitive figure skating.
 
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