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Thread: Who will be 3rd among the ladies in Sochi?

  1. #16
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Well, I would think the judging would be a bit more honourable than what we've seen at CoR. I think with this performance, Julia would be about 70 points -- and bearing in mind a tech specialist outside of Russia probably wouldn't have ignored her flutz, perhaps 68-69 points.
    Yeah I think we all need to accept that this means Julia (if clean) can expect to score 70+ in her SPs from now on, but I doubt she can score 72+ (at least at this time) consistently. If she keeps going clean and building a reputation though, anything is possible.

  2. #17
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan
    Isnt her base value only a few points above Kim this year ( as opposed to 10 points higher in the long program alone like last year). If that is the case a clean Kim would still beat a clean Asada.
    Not there yet, but Mao still trains the 8-triple layout she attempted last season. She didn't attempt the 3F-3Lo until now, but usually continues to 'upgrade' her technical content throughout the season.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    Yeah I think we all need to accept that this means Julia (if clean) can expect to score 70+ in her SPs from now on, but I doubt she can score 72+ (at least at this time) consistently. If she keeps going clean and building a reputation though, anything is possible.
    I would predict the next clean short by Julia outside of Russia will score about 70, which is about right. A 72 or higher wont happen outside Russia until she improves further.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    Not there yet, but Mao still trains the 8-triple layout she attempted last season. She didn't attempt the 3F-3Lo until now, but usually continues to 'upgrade' her technical content throughout the season.
    Maybe she will wait and survey the situation as the Games nears before deciding which program to attempt. Especialy how Kim fares in her pre Olympic competitions.

  5. #20
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Isn't Julia already crowned Olympic Champion? So the real question is, who will be off the podium: Kostner or Asada?

    Since we all love to extrapolate on just one or two competition results, I guess that means Kostner is gonna be off the podium...

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Isn't Julia already crowned Olympic Champion? So the real question is, who will be off the podium: Kostner or Asada?

    Since we all love to extrapolate on just one or two competition results, I guess that means Kostner is gonna be off the podium...
    Kostner generally skates well enough to win when others also make mistakes, which is why she has never scored 200+. If Julia, Adelina, Ashley, Akiko, or Gracie actually hit two solid programs they can beat Kostner's usual form.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by elif View Post
    Technically best skater is Julia. She is repeating her lutz and her 5 jumps are in the second half of the program. Her spins are good and usually getting very good GOE. Her weakness is 2A. She is hiding this with 2A+3T+2T which getting more GOE than solo 2A.
    Ashley is repeating 3flip and 3loop so she didn't lose much to Julia but she is losing some base value for 3lo+2a. 5.10+3.30 she should get 8.4 (with bonus 9.2x) but only getting 7.39x. Her weakness is underrotated jumps and two footing.

    Meh. Never was impressed by her jumps, kind of awkwardly/amateurish and rushed at times. She may get the revolutions and distance and whatever other standard you may have to wrack up the numbers, but they never give me a release - that "Ahhhhh" feeling that a senior ladies' jumps should. They don't feel concrete to me. Effortless my ***. The swing in the arms gets me every time...

    What made me a fan were the skating skills and transitions. She's got things to work on sure, but the choreo isn't just choreo when she skates it.

    She seems to know how to extend and use her body to express the music. Her coach wasn't kidding when she was bragging that her girls' transitions would overshadow a US ladies' transitions anyday.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Kostner generally skates well enough to win when others also make mistakes, which is why she has never scored 200+. If Julia, Adelina, Ashley, Akiko, or Gracie actually hit two solid programs they can beat Kostner's usual form.
    I mostly agree but Gracie and Akiko are more inconsistent than Kostner so I see no point in considering one of those two skating perfectly and Kostner skating just ok. The odds of that are incredibly low. Gracie has not been anywhere near 200 points either. Suzuki hasn't ever done it (well maybe WTT but I don't really count that) and doesn't come close nearly as often as Kostner does.

  9. #24
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    Conclusion:

    It's up for grabs people. You can argue it whatever way you want, but no one will know for sure.

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    I hope Julia's FS today brings people back down to earth a bit, especially with regards to her guaranteed victory over Wagner and the like. I never wish ill on a skater but part of me was hoping she would mess up just so some of you here would get your heads out of the clouds. Of course, she still scored 2.5 points higher PCS than her PB for that disastrous skate, so inflation will still be in full effect. But a technical skate like that will surely keep her off the podium.

    Like Gold, I hope this takes off some of the pressure and she can still draw positives like winning a second gold (even if undeserved) and a PB in the SP (even though 72 points was undeserved). And of course the positive that she has a considerable PCS boost on home ice.

  11. #26
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    I don't think people have said Julia is a lock for anything except a lock for the Russian Olympic team which IMO she still is. I think the team is almost locked as Julia and Adelina at this point, and Anna P. will have to do something spectacular to steal that 2nd spot from Adelina. Tuktamysheva is right out of it.

  12. #27
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    Nobody said anything about her winning gold. I think she might be in the run for bronze.

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    Some were touting her as a sure fire winner of bronze, regardless of how Wagner/Gold/Kostner/Suzuki skate, and some were even suggesting silver. And thanks to the SP inflation some even said she has a shot to win. Eg if Yu Na isn't clean Julia will win, as if Julia herself wasn't prone to errors (as we saw as Junior Worlds, COR free skate, Russian nationals...). The expectations piled on her were tremendous so I'm actually thankful she had a flawed skate or she would face immeasurable pressure going into Sochi instead of just doing her thing.

    Too many perfect skates isn't a good thing. This gives her room to improve and ensures she won't get too comfortable.

  14. #29
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Which doesn't mean that after one clean comp, people won't hype her up to whatever again.

  15. #30
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    So now we know how she skates under immense pressure on home ice...

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