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Thread: State of the U.S. Men: Post-GP season

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by MFarone View Post
    I hope so also! I normally like the more lyrical skaters like Jeremy and Jason, but for some reason I also really like Ross. He seems so hardworking and not a headcase. He's gone to Tom Dickson for choreography (last season) and seems to be working on being more expressive. Now, if he could find his 3A (which seems to be missing) and at least rotate the quad, he would be in good shape!
    I like Ross a lot too. He has some great basics that tend to be downplayed. And I really appreciate his efforts to improve his choreography and expression.

    And spekaing of the quad :

    Nick McCarvel
    ‏@NickMcCarvel
    Spoke w Jason Brown (@jasonbskates). RE quad: "Honestly it's very close. Working on it daily. We’re not putting it in until it’s consistent"
    9:23 AM - 27 Nov 13

    I wonder how close he is...

    Nick also tweeted that he is working on a feature on Jason that will be published sometime next week.

  2. #32
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    Thanks Doris and golden411 for your replies! I was reminded of this article that I read a while back:

    http://web.icenetwork.com/news/artic...&vkey=ice_news

    and really enjoyed. I must confess I find quads fascinating.

    Mrs P - It wouldn't surprise me if it indeed were very close. One thing that my husband especially remarked upon re Jason (after having seen his Riverdance) is his sense of balance. That no matter how he twists and turns his body is so remarkably balanced. And I agree. I think that would help immensely. I thought so to about the video of Jason training the quad that someone posted - was it you, perhaps? It wasn't perfect, but he saved it. I think he could very well become one of those few skaters who could "save" landing a dodgy quad. (See article above.)

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by LRK View Post
    Thanks Doris and golden411 for your replies! I was reminded of this article that I read a while back:

    http://web.icenetwork.com/news/artic...&vkey=ice_news

    and really enjoyed. I must confess I find quads fascinating.

    Mrs P - It wouldn't surprise me if it indeed were very close. One thing that my husband especially remarked upon re Jason (after having seen his Riverdance) is his sense of balance. That no matter how he twists and turns his body is so remarkably balanced. And I agree. I think that would help immensely. I thought so to about the video of Jason training the quad that someone posted - was it you, perhaps? It wasn't perfect, but he saved it. I think he could very well become one of those few skaters who could "save" landing a dodgy quad. (See article above.)

    What comes to mind is this video of his 3Z-3T from 2012 Nationals SP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2H-dV6aww4#t=02m15s
    Johnny Weir notes that his 3Z landing was a bit iffy, but yet was able to get deep in his knees to get the landing and pull off the 3T at the end.

    The balance you speak of probably explains why he doesn't fall a whole lot. He didn't fall once at any of his international competitions last season (though fell three times over two segments at U.S. Nationals last year Hope it doesn't happen this year. Two of those falls were with the 3A, so I'm hoping we'll see fewer, well ideally none, this year).

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by phaeljones View Post
    The only thing kind of worrying about Adam is that he starting to get on (24?) and does not have a lot of years left
    I have a question about this. It's true that Adam is 24 now, but it's also true that Adam started skating later than most male skaters (he started when he was 10 IIRC) Do you think that those skaters who start skating later, and have less "skating years" in their bodies can skate until later too? I've always wondered about this

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by sigrid View Post
    I have a question about this. It's true that Adam is 24 now, but it's also true that Adam started skating later than most male skaters (he started when he was 10 IIRC) Do you think that those skaters who start skating later, and have less "skating years" in their bodies can skate until later too? I've always wondered about this
    Would be surprised if there was a universal answer to this. Would seem highly dependent upon SO many very individualized variables that it would be difficult to draw generalizations.

    I frankly think a more relevant factor is whether someone in their mid20s and beyond can continue to afford participation/financing themselves in the sport.

  6. #36
    Custom Title MFarone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sigrid View Post
    I have a question about this. It's true that Adam is 24 now, but it's also true that Adam started skating later than most male skaters (he started when he was 10 IIRC) Do you think that those skaters who start skating later, and have less "skating years" in their bodies can skate until later too? I've always wondered about this
    I also think this would be difficult to predict. Johnny Weir is 29 and started skating at 12. It seems like Johnny wore out physically by about 27....on the other hand Plushenko (with numerous surgeries) is still going like the energizer bunny!

  7. #37
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    I guess I don't agree that Plush is still going like the energizer bunny. It would appear to all accounts that he has some skates left in him but he's planning when and where to use them. I picture him held together with bubble gum and toothpicks and alot of heart. His desire to compete is stronger possibly than his body is willing to allow. And this, of course, all remains to be seen. I don't think Johnny quit necessarily for any reason other than his life had moved in different directions and he couldn't train properly to continue competing. But Icd called it - there are too many factors to give a general answer to this question. Alot depends on native ability, body type, conditioning, training, probably even eating properly and getting enough sleep. Definitely finances are a factor unless the skater is "born to the manor!" But looking at Adam, he shows no signs of slowing down and quite the contrary - looks stronger than ever!

    I just think after skating and competing and training for umpty-two years that a person's desire changes. Only a few have the tenacity to stick in there - or, they have nothing else in their lives to fall back on.

  8. #38
    I got your program components right here. Pepe Nero's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    So now that the Grand Prix series is over, time to look back and give lots of data and analysis.

    Score tracker (Top 5 in each category gets points: 15/13/11/9/7; See breakdown of scores below)
    Jason: 127
    Adam: 115
    Jeremy: 77
    Max: 55
    Richard: 18


    Average competition score (includes Senior B appearances)
    Adam Rippon: 237.48 (Skate America, NHK Trophy)
    Jason Brown: 234.18 (Nebelhorn, Skate America, Trophee Eric Bompard)
    Max Aaron: 233.64 (U.S. International Classic, Skate America, NHK Trophy)
    Jeremy Abbott: 226.68 (Skate Canada, NHK Trophy)
    Richard Dornbush: 213.58 (Finlandia Trophy, Cup of China, Rostelecom Cup)
    Joshua Farris: 211.64 (U.S. International Classic, Skate Canada)
    Ross Miner: 203.88 (Ondrej Nepala Trophy, Skate Canada)

    Quad attempts during the GP: Success = No UR, no fall, no negative GOE below -1

    Max Aaron: 4S (2/6); 4T (0/2)
    Jeremy Abbott: 4T (1/3)
    Adam Rippon: 4Z (0/2) 4T (0/2)
    Joshua Farris: 4T (0/2)
    Ross Miner: 4S (0/2)
    Richard Dornbush: 4T (0/1); 4S (0/4)

    GP Placements
    Adam Rippon: 2nd (Skate America) + 4th (NHK Trophy)
    Jason Brown: 3rd (Trophee Eric Bompard) + 5th (Skate America)
    Jeremy Abbott: 3rd (NHK Trophy) + 6th (Skate Canada)
    Max Aaron: 3rd (Skate America) + 7th ( NHK Trophy)
    Richard Dornbush: 5th (Cup of China) + 5th (Rostelecom Cup)
    Joshua Farris: 5th (Skate Canada)
    Ross Miner: 9th (Skate Canada)
    Mrs. P, wow. But can I ask: what determines how you factor each of these things into your scores? And more to the point, why do any but the first matter? Number of quads, for example, matters only insofar as it affects the total score. So it shouldn't be counted twice. Similarly, the placement at each event depends on the competition; only the score matters (if we can assume -- I hope we can -- that judging has some reliable level of objectivity from one competition to the next).

    Anyway, I'm hoping Jeremy Abbott will make the Olympic team. I have a soft spot, it seems, for the veterans of the DSC. I also think he is one of the few skaters (and not just from the US) of the contemporary era about whom one could say that he is artistic (i.e., not just good at program components).

    Among the rest, there are several other men who are worthy of the spot (amongst each other), but it would melt my heart if Jason Brown got it.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe Nero View Post
    Mrs. P, wow. But can I ask: what determines how you factor each of these things into your scores? And more to the point, why do any but the first matter? Number of quads, for example, matters only insofar as it affects the total score. So it shouldn't be counted twice. Similarly, the placement at each event depends on the competition; only the score matters (if we can assume -- I hope we can -- that judging has some reliable level of objectivity from one competition to the next).

    Anyway, I'm hoping Jeremy Abbott will make the Olympic team. I have a soft spot, it seems, for the veterans of the DSC. I also think he is one of the few skaters (and not just from the US) of the contemporary era about whom one could say that he is artistic (i.e., not just good at program components).

    Among the rest, there are several other men who are worthy of the spot (amongst each other), but it would melt my heart if Jason Brown got it.
    To be clear the scoretracker only accounts for GP scores. Basically I ranked the total GP score, GP SP, GP SP TES, GP SP PCS, GP FS, GP FS TES, GP FS PCS. The top five in each of those categories got points (15/13/11/9/7; similar to GP point calculation).

    I broke out the TES/PCS SP/FS because you can clearly see some nuances that factor into the discussion. For example, Jason is quite strong in the SP; but Max can score big in the FS due to his high TES.

    The quad calculations and score averages are strictly for additional data points and did not factor into the the score tracker.

  10. #40
    I got your program components right here. Pepe Nero's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    To be clear the scoretracker only accounts for GP scores. Basically I ranked the total GP score, GP SP, GP SP TES, GP SP PCS, GP FS, GP FS TES, GP FS PCS. The top five in each of those categories got points (15/13/11/9/7; similar to GP point calculation).

    I broke out the TES/PCS SP/FS because you can clearly see some nuances that factor into the discussion. For example, Jason is quite strong in the SP; but Max can score big in the FS due to his high TES.

    The quad calculations and score averages are strictly for additional data points and did not factor into the the score tracker.
    Ah. Thanks! Thinking some more now...

  11. #41
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    Since we're all relaxing and enjoying ourselves this Thanksgiving weekend, no better way to pass the time then to enjoy past videos. (And yes putting Evan in for now, since he hasn't announced WD and whether you like him or not, he is the reigning OGM).

    Anyway, just for fun (and also to give you a sense of skaters' best), I present to you programs of our top Olympic team contenders in order of ISU personal best. I linked videos in first reference but did not include the link if the program is included other categories.

    Of course, it's not a perfect comparison, because some of the personal bests came when certain rules weren't in place, but you get the idea.

    Short Program
    Evan Lysacek, 90.30, 2010 Olympics (02/16/2010)
    Jeremy Abbott, 86.98, World Team Trophy 2012 (04/19/2012)
    Jason Brown, 84.77, Trophee Eric Bompard 2013 (11/15/2013)
    Richard Dornbush, 83.01, Four Continents Championships 2013 (02/08/2013)
    Adam Rippon, 82.25, NHK Trophy 2013 (11/08/2013)
    Max Aaron 78.20, World Championships 2013 (03/15/2013)
    Ross Miner 76.89, Four Continents Championships 2012 (02/09/2012)
    Joshua Farris, 75.84, World Junior Championships 2013 (02/28/2013)

    SP TES
    Evan Lysacek, 48.30, 2010 Olympics
    Jason Brown, 45.98, Trophee Eric Bompard 2013
    Richard Dornbush, 45.48, Four Continents Championships 2013
    Jeremy Abbott, 45.40, NHK Trophy 2009 (11/06/2009)
    Adam Rippon, 44.40, NHK Trophy 2013
    Max Aaron, 43.56, World Championships 2013
    Joshua Farris, 42.58, JGP Baltic Cup 2011 (09/15/2011)
    Ross Miner, 41.68, Four Continents Championships 2012


    SP PCS
    Jeremy Abbott, 45.40, World Team Trophy 2012
    Evan Lysacek, 42.00, 2010 Olympics
    Jason Brown, 38.93, Skate America 2013 (10/18/2013)
    Adam Rippon, 37.85, NHK Trophy 2013
    Richard Dornbush, 37.53, Four Continents Championships 2013
    Max Aaron, 36.56, NHK Trophy 2013 (11/08/2013)
    Ross Miner, 36.56, Skate Canada 2013 (10/25/2013) (Not sure why his best PCS is from what is arguably his worst SP. I guess it would have been higher if he did better? )
    Joshua Farris 36.03 Skate Canada 2013 (10/25/2013) (Like Ross, not a great SP, but alas his highest PCS to date is here).


    Free Skate
    Evan Lysacek, 167.37, 2010 Olympics (02/18/2013)
    Max Aaron, 162.45, Skate America 2013 (10/19/2013)
    Ross Miner 161.96, NHK Trophy 2012 (11/24/2012)
    Adam Rippon, 160.98, Skate America 2013 (10/19/2013)
    Jeremy Abbott 159.46, Grand Prix Final 2008 (12/13/2008)
    Jason Brown 158.32, Trophee Eric Bompard (11/16/2013)
    Joshua Farris 152.48, Junior World Championships 2013 (03/02/2013)
    Richard Dornbush 151.88, World Championships 2011 (04/28/2011)

    FS TES
    Max Aaron, 90.47, Skate America 2013
    Ross Miner, 86.74, NHK Trophy 2012
    Evan Lysacek, 84.57, 2010 Olympics
    Joshua Farris, 82.70, World Junior Championships 2013
    Jeremy Abbott, 82.58, Grand Prix Final 2008
    Adam Rippon, 82.52, Four Continents Championships 2010 (01/30/2010)
    Jason Brown 81.03, Junior World Championships 2013 (03/02/2013)
    Richard Dornbush, 79.97, JJunior Grand Prix Final 2010 (12/11/2010)

    FS PCS
    Evan Lysacek, 84.00, Grand Prix Final 2009
    Jeremy Abbott, 83.94, World Team Trophy 2012
    Adam Rippon, 82.08, Skate America 2013
    Jason Brown, 80.12, Trophee Eric Bompard 2013
    Richard Dornbush, 75.64, Four Continents Championships 2013 (02/09/2013)
    Ross Miner, 75.22, NHK Trophy 2012
    Max Aaron, 74.30, World Championships 2013
    Joshua Farris, 73.78, Skate Canada 2013 (10/26/2013)

  12. #42
    Footwork Queen IcyEdges's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Since we're all relaxing and enjoying ourselves this Thanksgiving weekend, no better way to pass the time then to enjoy past videos. (And yes putting Evan in for now, since he hasn't announced WD and whether you like him or not, he is the reigning OGM).

    Anyway, just for fun (and also to give you a sense of skaters' best), I present to you programs of our top Olympic team contenders in order of ISU personal best. I linked videos in first reference but did not include the link if the program is included other categories.

    Of course, it's not a perfect comparison, because some of the personal bests came when certain rules weren't in place, but you get the idea.

    Short Program
    Evan Lysacek, 90.30, 2010 Olympics (02/16/2010)
    Jeremy Abbott, 86.98, World Team Trophy 2012 (04/19/2012)
    Jason Brown, 84.77, Trophee Eric Bompard 2013 (11/15/2013)
    Richard Dornbush, 83.01, Four Continents Championships 2013 (02/08/2013)
    Adam Rippon, 82.25, NHK Trophy 2013 (11/08/2013)
    Max Aaron 78.20, World Championships 2013 (03/15/2013)
    Ross Miner 76.89, Four Continents Championships 2012 (02/09/2012)
    Joshua Farris, 75.84, World Junior Championships 2013 (02/28/2013)

    SP TES
    Evan Lysacek, 48.30, 2010 Olympics
    Jason Brown, 45.98, Trophee Eric Bompard 2013
    Richard Dornbush, 45.48, Four Continents Championships 2013
    Jeremy Abbott, 45.40, NHK Trophy 2009 (11/06/2009)
    Adam Rippon, 44.40, NHK Trophy 2013
    Max Aaron, 43.56, World Championships 2013
    Joshua Farris, 42.58, JGP Baltic Cup 2011 (09/15/2011)
    Ross Miner, 41.68, Four Continents Championships 2012


    SP PCS
    Jeremy Abbott, 45.40, World Team Trophy 2012
    Evan Lysacek, 42.00, 2010 Olympics
    Jason Brown, 38.93, Skate America 2013 (10/18/2013)
    Adam Rippon, 37.85, NHK Trophy 2013
    Richard Dornbush, 37.53, Four Continents Championships 2013
    Max Aaron, 36.56, NHK Trophy 2013 (11/08/2013)
    Ross Miner, 36.56, Skate Canada 2013 (10/25/2013) (Not sure why his best PCS is from what is arguably his worst SP. I guess it would have been higher if he did better? )
    Joshua Farris 36.03 Skate Canada 2013 (10/25/2013) (Like Ross, not a great SP, but alas his highest PCS to date is here).


    Free Skate
    Evan Lysacek, 167.37, 2010 Olympics (02/18/2013)
    Max Aaron, 162.45, Skate America 2013 (10/19/2013)
    Ross Miner 161.96, NHK Trophy 2012 (11/24/2012)
    Adam Rippon, 160.98, Skate America 2013 (10/19/2013)
    Jeremy Abbott 159.46, Grand Prix Final 2008 (12/13/2008)
    Jason Brown 158.32, Trophee Eric Bompard (11/16/2013)
    Joshua Farris 152.48, Junior World Championships 2013 (03/02/2013)
    Richard Dornbush 151.88, World Championships 2011 (04/28/2011)

    FS TES
    Max Aaron, 90.47, Skate America 2013
    Ross Miner, 86.74, NHK Trophy 2012
    Evan Lysacek, 84.57, 2010 Olympics
    Joshua Farris, 82.70, World Junior Championships 2013
    Jeremy Abbott, 82.58, Grand Prix Final 2008
    Adam Rippon, 82.52, Four Continents Championships 2010 (01/30/2010)
    Jason Brown 81.03, Junior World Championships 2013 (03/02/2013)
    Richard Dornbush, 79.97, JJunior Grand Prix Final 2010 (12/11/2010)

    FS PCS
    Evan Lysacek, 84.00, Grand Prix Final 2009
    Jeremy Abbott, 83.94, World Team Trophy 2012
    Adam Rippon, 82.08, Skate America 2013
    Jason Brown, 80.12, Trophee Eric Bompard 2013
    Richard Dornbush, 75.64, Four Continents Championships 2013 (02/09/2013)
    Ross Miner, 75.22, NHK Trophy 2012
    Max Aaron, 74.30, World Championships 2013
    Joshua Farris, 73.78, Skate Canada 2013 (10/26/2013)
    Thank you for that Mrs. P. That was very, very interesting.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    The balance you speak of probably explains why he doesn't fall a whole lot. He didn't fall once at any of his international competitions last season (though fell three times over two segments at U.S. Nationals last year Hope it doesn't happen this year. Two of those falls were with the 3A, so I'm hoping we'll see fewer, well ideally none, this year).
    This reminds me of my "old" favourite, Shawn Sawyer. While Shawn struggled to master the hardest jumps, he almost never fell in the last few years of his career. If there was a mistake it was often a two-foot or some other kind of iffy landing, but I was normally confident that his butt wouldn't touch the ice.

  14. #44
    Tripping on the Podium
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    Some of those scores are 3-4 years ago...
    Stuff happens in that time! Look at the ladies. Contenders last Olympics; Flatt, Nagasu, Zhang now are happy when they score 20-30 points less. So adding Evan and some of those other ones does not make sense.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by nam57 View Post
    Some of those scores are 3-4 years ago...
    Stuff happens in that time! Look at the ladies. Contenders last Olympics; Flatt, Nagasu, Zhang now are happy when they score 20-30 points less. So adding Evan and some of those other ones does not make sense.
    As I said, it's not meant to be a perfect comparison. My goal is to show what these skaters look like when they perform well. And yes if their personal best was some time ago, that is an indicator of where one is in their career trajectory.

    The people I included were all in the top 8 last year at Nationals. And as I said, Evan is still considered a contender until he WD.

    I'll add Season's best videos, perhaps...

    Quote Originally Posted by blue_idealist View Post
    This reminds me of my "old" favourite, Shawn Sawyer. While Shawn struggled to master the hardest jumps, he almost never fell in the last few years of his career. If there was a mistake it was often a two-foot or some other kind of iffy landing, but I was normally confident that his butt wouldn't touch the ice.
    A few people compared Jason to Shawn last season when he was still struggling with his 3A. However, in a positive light, both Jason and Shawn are both engaging performers with great flexibility and charisma!
    Loved Shawn's Alice in Wonderland FS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dv2hBOJALYM I was absolutely thrilled he turned in such a great performance at his final Nationals!

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