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Thread: Plushenko or Kovtun?

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by YesWay View Post
    My prediction: It will be "both"... Plushenko will be nominated, with Kovtun as the Alternate... Plushenko will withdraw due to injury, and Kovtun will be the one who actually competes...
    I can see this. However it happens, it's Kovtun come copetition time.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by RobinA View Post
    I can see this. However it happens, it's Kovtun come copetition time.
    Don't you think that it might be the other way around? I do not think Plushenko wants a team medal, he wants an individual one...

  3. #18
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    The king has let my jaws dropped once again. [/QUOTE]

    Ditto! Gotta love how he always puts it out there.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by MsLiinaLii View Post
    Don't you think that it might be the other way around? I do not think Plushenko wants a team medal, he wants an individual one...
    This means that Kovtun has to be Russian Champion. But if Plushenko allows Kovtun to win who can guarantee that Kovtun steps back before the individual event and lets Plushenko skate?

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mao88
    Evgeni Plushenko videos: Short Program, Free Skate, Free Skate (2nd Copy)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE

    Evgeni Plushenko (RUS) at Volvo Cup 2013
    Free Skate Music : "The Best of Plushenko "


    4T [1] – Long preparation, no difficult entry, good height : BV= 10.3 TV = 11.3
    3A [1] – No difficult entry, good height, good flow on landing : BV = 8.5 TV = 9.5
    3Lo [2] - Short preparation, good height and flow : BV = 5.1 TV = 6.5
    FCSp4 [1] – Solid execution, interesting change of position including a hand grabbing his blade, though slow : BV = 3.2 TV = 3.7
    CSSp3[2] – Well executed, well centered, good speed, though leg extension during sit position can be tighter : BV = 2.7 TV = 3.7
    3A+3T (*) [2] - Very good height and flow between jumps and solid exit : BV = 13.86 TV = 15.86
    3Lz+2T+2Lo (*) [2] - First attempt at transition into any jumps, not well done but credits for trying and a solid execution overall of all three jumps : BV = 10.01 TV = 11.41
    3Lz(e) (*) [0] – Unclear edge entry into an otherwise solid jump : BV = TV = 6.6
    2S (*) [0] - Doubling a Triple jump attempt : BV = TV = 1.43
    StSq3 [1] - Solid execution with acceptable speed, however needs more flow and better control to ensure better ice coverage : BV = 3.3 TV = 3.8
    ChSq1 [-1] – Performed a series of kicks & hops in a smallish circle, the pattern is insufficiently large to be given full credit, failed to show solid control of edges & flow : BV = 2.0 TV = 1.5
    2A (*)[0] – Shaky landing, barely brought free foot back on time : BV = TV = 3.63
    CCoSp4 [1] - Sure execution, however needs more solid positions and speed : BV = 3.5 TV = 4.0

    Base Value : 74.13
    GOE : 8.80
    TES : 82.93


    Program Components

    SS : 7.50
    TR : 5.25
    PE : 8.00
    CH : 7.00
    IN : 7.25

    PCS = 70.00


    Comments :

    Feel free to ignore the PCS as I am sure many won't agree. You can't teach an old dog new tricks, Plushenko didn't have any transitions in 2010, he surely wouldn't be having any in 2014 either. As such, 70 is the highest PCS I can give at this point.

    Now, in terms of the technical content, I continue to be baffled by Team Mishin's disregard for CoP. The first thing that caught my attention is that Plushenko continues to do only 2 jump combos instead of the 3 he is allowed knowing that this actually cost him the gold medal in Vancouver. Of course, some will say : "Don't worry, he will surely add one in Sochi." If so, he needs to compete with a 3rd combo now, not at Sochi in order to start getting used to it. Triple Flip continues to be absent in his repertoire, which forced him to do a Double Axel instead, that would again set him back by about another 3 points or so, factoring both lost BV and GOE. Plushenko doesn't do a 2nd Quad when virtually every other top male skater is doing at least 2 will also put him at a great disadvantage. If he does decide to add a 2nd Quad Toe, then he won't be able to repeat either the Lutz or Axel, which in turn makes the lack of a Triple Flip even more glaring with respect to his jumping passes utilization. All these little things add up such that despite a relatively solid skate, the best he can manage is about 83 in TES. Know that when other men have been scoring 90+ even 100+ TES this season, his chance of Olympic glory seems more than remote at this point.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    Know that when other men have been scoring 90+ even 100+ TES this season, his chance of Olympic glory seems more than remote at this point.
    Well, at this point even his participation seems remote.

  7. #22
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz
    All these little things add up such that despite a relatively solid skate, the best he can manage is about 83 in TES. Know that when other men have been scoring 90+ even 100+ TES this season, his chance of Olympic glory seems more than remote at this point.
    Yes, those 90+ and 100+ just keep happening as if it was nothing! (sidenote: the highest TES at worlds 2013 was Hanyu's 89.05 - not one sinlge 90+)
    This is the Olympics - and the medals will probably belong to those who keep their butt's of the ice and not those who just go for the most difficulty on paper. It doesn't matter if Plush would "just" get something around 85 in TES - his PCS would very likely be higher than your 70 points, and something beteween 160 - 170 could very well keep him in the running if these "many" skaters with 90+ TES potential falter.

  8. #23
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    I don't know. These numbers aren't so dire (post 20). Plushenko will get 85 in PCS just for being Plushenko, so with 85 in TES, that puts him in the 170 range. The other guys have to deliver their stuff, too. So far the winners of the Grand Prix events have gone 174 (Machida, SA), 173 (Chan, SC), 156 (Kovtun, China), 172 (Takahashi, NHK), and 172 (Machida, Rostelecom) -- setting aside Chan's untouchable 195 at TEB. Win or lose, it would be cool to see the old warrior standing in the gap one last time.

  9. #24
    leave no stone unturned seniorita's Avatar
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    Giving him 70 because he has no transitions sounds like Pcs mark is only based on transitions, and how do you give interpretation 7, like who else can interpret better The best if Plushenko? :d

    All of this in jest cause we watch one b event he went after lots of months, I don't know why people tear apart this performance, it is the same as some July -August events you see the programs of skaters in some crappy feed, Plushenko thrives in actual competition, I m not saying he will be a threat for podium but he certainly skated better this lp having no actual motive than Kovtun in Cor. The issue now is if he ll go to Sochi, how he performs there is another task.
    Last edited by seniorita; 11-25-2013 at 03:00 PM.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    Yes, those 90+ and 100+ just keep happening as if it was nothing! (sidenote: the highest TES at worlds 2013 was Hanyu's 89.05 - not one sinlge 90+)
    It was also an extremely poorly skated FS. Like any extremes, the probability of them repeating is low. Side note: Despite having the highest TES in the FS, Hanyu missed the podium due to his PCS being 9 points lower than his TES, therefore, don't assume he will automatically get high PCS if he continues to skate as slowly as Hanyu does in FS. Chances are both will get ding in PCS.

    This is the Olympics - and the medals will probably belong to those who keep their butt's of the ice and not those who just go for the most difficulty on paper. It doesn't matter if Plush would "just" get something around 85 in TES - his PCS would very likely be higher than your 70 points, and something beteween 160 - 170 could very well keep him in the running if these "many" skaters with 90+ TES potential falter.
    Plushenko too can make mistakes. He hasn't skated clean since Euro 2012, couldn't even make top 3 at Japan Open not to mention he went ice splashing at Euro 2013. Even at Volvo Cup, he still missed a jump, and his step sequences continue to be messy. The fact is even when a skater like Hanyu, who is by no means dominant in anyway, managed to score 87+ in TES after missing a jumping pass entirely and went ice kissing on another jump - it tells you Plushenko simply does not have enough technical content to be up there even when a rival makes two major errors in the FS. As it stands, Hanyu, Takahashi and Fernandez have about 2 falls advantage over Plushenko.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    I don't know. These numbers aren't so dire (post 20). Plushenko will get 85 in PCS just for being Plushenko, so with 85 in TES, that puts him in the 170 range.
    I doubt it. It is true not many have the guts to mark him down appropriately in TR although some do, as we witnessed in Vancouver, some judges gave him 5s or 6s for TR which of course led to cries of unfair politicking against Joe Inman. The fact is, Plushenko's program continues to be void of content or substance between elements. He struggles to maintain even decent use of the blades even during the required step sequences, therefore, you can understand why he isn't doing anything between elements - he is simply unable to do more, possibly due to health issues.


    The other guys have to deliver their stuff, too. So far the winners of the Grand Prix events have gone 174 (Machida, SA), 173 (Chan, SC), 156 (Kovtun, China), 172 (Takahashi, NHK), and 172 (Machida, Rostelecom) -- setting aside Chan's untouchable 195 at TEB. Win or lose, it would be cool to see the old warrior standing in the gap one last time.
    Even if you give Plushenko PCS equal to his TES, which is a big if, the only event he would have come out on top in FS is in Cup of China, arguably against a very weak field. A legitimate question should be asked then whether it would be better for Russia to consider Kovtun and start to grow this young talent now as opposed to a long shot attempt at a final glory for Plushenko?

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by seniorita View Post
    Giving him 70 because he has no transitions sounds like Pcs mark is only based on transitions, and how do you give interpretation 7, like who else can interpret better The best if Plushenko? :d
    um...because half of time, he is doing nothing but stroking and no upper body movement except the occasion hip thrust and airplane arms. This is not show skating. As a competitive skating program, there is no substance in it to mark it any higher.

  13. #28
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    Kovtun does have to beat plushenko twice probably maybe. Russian nationals and euros. It's very true that Russia unless fame overrides potential- If plushenko asks for waivers from euros or nationals if he is beaten by kovtun- will probably not do just whatever plushenko wants because he's famous. Sure usfs bent to kwans fame but only because of 3 spots! You think Kwan couldve overridden Cohen?!? Lol. But now I'm not sure because even though there is the kovtun precedent he must be the number one Russian male somewhere soon!!

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    um...because half of time, he is doing nothing but stroking and no upper body movement except the occasion hip thrust and airplane arms. This is not show skating. As a competitive skating program, there is no substance in it to mark it any higher.
    Oh, thank you, I just understand how weak skater he is.

  15. #30
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz
    It was also an extremely poorly skated FS. Like any extremes, the probability of them repeating is low. Side note: Despite having the highest TES in the FS, Hanyu missed the podium due to his PCS being 9 points lower than his TES, therefore, don't assume he will automatically get high PCS if he continues to skate as slowly as Hanyu does in FS. Chances are both will get ding in PCS.
    Yes, and Olympics are of course always perfectly skated events. Even 'well skated' would be enough to count for irony here. That's how Lysacek became OGM. Side note: I know that, and I simply mentioned it to show your 90+ TES were not necessarily realistic for the big events. Your side remarks at a skater just because I like him won't help you with your actual arguments.

    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz
    Plushenko too can make mistakes. He hasn't skated clean since Euro 2012, couldn't even make top 3 at Japan Open not to mention he went ice splashing at Euro 2013. Even at Volvo Cup, he still missed a jump, and his step sequences continue to be messy. The fact is even when a skater like Hanyu, who is by no means dominant in anyway, managed to score 87+ in TES after missing a jumping pass entirely and went ice kissing on another jump - it tells you Plushenko simply does not have enough technical content to be up there even when a rival makes two major errors in the FS. As it stands, Hanyu, Takahashi and Fernandez have about 2 falls advantage over Plushenko.
    It's kinda cute how you try to continue side blowing Hanyu. Whatever that has to do with Plush... nobody said that Plush will skate clean. The point is, despite what you said before, he does have a chance if he skates clean, because there's a high chance enough other men will make mistakes.
    Besides, if you argue under the presumption Plush would only be worth sending if he was a definite medal threat, you're wrong. Plush deserves to go as long as he's still the best russian men. You think Kovtun will beat Chan, Takahashi, Hanyu or Fernandez when they skate well?

    Quote Originally Posted by plushyfan
    Oh, thank you, I just understand how weak skater he is.

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