Plushenko or Kovtun?

wallylutz said:

Lysacek defeated a clean Plushenko for gold and Lysacek himself was clean, so yes, it was well skated indeed given that both the Gold and Silver medalists were clean in SP and LP. Unlike Dennis Ten who won his World Silver by being the last man standing in a splashfest, Lysacek did not win his OGM due to a splashfest or anything remotely resembling that. I can't recall a time when a man's Olympic Champion was crowned from a splashfest or anything remotely close to that in the last 20 years. It seems to me you are confusing the women's event with the men's.




In other news, there is a chance that Gamma ray from a super nova will hit earth tomorrow. Or for something a little more realistic, it's possible everyone will tumble badly again such that Dennis Ten will win OGM. Nevermind the probability you are referring to is a big long shot. What you refused to understand, which is puzzling to me, is that Plushenko's current Technical content is insufficient such that several men can afford 2 major errors and still beat him technically. In other words, even if Plushenko were clean, some of current top male skaters can still beat him by being less than clean because they have so much more content than he does. To illustrate this point, I used a recent example, which is Hanyu's FS at TEB. It wasn't a dig at him, but for some odd reasons you think showing Hanyu having a 2 falls advantage over Plushenko = insult.



Frankly, neither Plusehnko or Kovtun have a realistic shot even though Kovtun just scored a 90+ SP at CoR. The difference is, investment in Kovtun = investment for Russia's future men skating. Lysacek credited his OGM to his learning experience at the 2006 Olympics. If Kovtun or another Russian man is deprived of this experience, no Russian man would have been to Olympics other than Plushenko in 8 years when 2018 Olympics happens or 12 years if you consider Borodulin is no longer skating. That's a lost decade.

Let's face it, the chance that Russian Nationals will crown a new Russian Champion other than Plushenko when he competes is virtually non-existent. No matter what he does, he will get straight 9s and 10s for PCS. This is sad however. Russian men have been depressing for a very long time and the fact their national qualification system is inequitable plays a big part to ensure many young men quit already as they can't see the light at the end of the tunnel.

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This is entirely Kovtun's fault! He totally choked in 2013 worlds! The JGP Kovtun was gone and there was a terrible skater who didn't deserve to be there and probably shouldn't have because he totally robbed Menshov. But even with his robbery of Menshov it was his duty to prepare to be good and top 10 in London and he was horrible! His TES in the SP was the lowest of the qualified men. He bombed and did awful. If no Russian man has been to the Olympics other than Plushenko and retired Borodulin that's all Kovtun's fault and problem and he owns that.

gmyers said:

This is entirely Kovtun's fault! He totally choked in 2013 worlds! The JGP Kovtun was gone and there was a terrible skater who didn't deserve to be there and probably shouldn't have because he totally robbed Menshov. But even with his robbery of Menshov it was his duty to prepare to be good and top 10 in London and he was horrible! His TES in the SP was the lowest of the qualified men. He bombed and did awful. If no Russian man has been to the Olympics other than Plushenko and retired Borodulin that's all Kovtun's fault and problem and he owns that.

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Do not blame Kovtun. Blame the Russian federation for sending an inexperienced skater over other experienced skaters simply because of a 5th place at Euros. Kovtun was essentially forced to compete at Worlds instead of compete at Junior Worlds where he would have had not as much pressure and probably would have medalled. It must have been horrible for Kovtun, knowing that if he didn't do enough to claim 2 spots, he was essentially compromising his own ticket to Sochi.

Plus, there's no guarantee that Menshov would have skated well and earned 2 spots... his personal best ever is 223.72, which would have earned him 11th at Worlds 2013 (over 5 points behind a 10th place Brezina). Menshov was robbed of the opportunity, yes, but chances are he wouldn't have done enough to claim 2 spots.

Kovtun represents the whole thing! I say Kovtun but was also saying Russian federation for choosing him for euros but also excusing him from the Russia cup final! Then possibly under extreme pressure there was total crumbling! Which may have been true of voronov or menshov but that's hypothetical.

At which point of Volvo video plushenko does airplane arms and hip thrusts?

seniorita said:

At which point of Volvo video plushenko does airplane arms and hip thrusts?

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This is a good qestion. I think she/he has "learned" it and repeats even if not true, because it sounds good for those people who don't like him. I could read after Vancouver "the fs isn't only one jump",

wallylutz said:

Lysacek defeated a clean Plushenko for gold and Lysacek himself was clean, so yes, it was well skated indeed given that both the Gold and Silver medalists were clean in SP and LP. Unlike Dennis Ten who won his World Silver by being the last man standing in a splashfest, Lysacek did not win his OGM due to a splashfest or anything remotely resembling that.

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So 2 medalists clean = good event, one medalist clean = splatfeast. Erm, no. If falls are the only thing that make a full slaptfeast, then 2013 wasn't one. In the SP, out of the top 10 men just Hanyu and Amodio fell (once each). In the FS it were only Chan and Takahashi. That doesn't sound that bad at all. The problem was everyone was underrotating, stepping out of jumps or having other problems like that left and right. And a lot of men had trouble like that too in 2010. Takahashi had a fall, 2 UR's, and 2 other jumps with -GOE due to subpar landings in the FS. Lambiel didn't fall, but he had just 2 jumps with +GOE in the LP, 4 jumps overall (out of 11 jumping passes...). Clean, both of them should have beat Lysacek. You could make a case for Chan too, who didn't skate bad but not up to his potential either. Same for Kozuka and Oda. But I don't want to get this into a full 2010 Olympics dead horse discussion, so unto the 2. part...

wallylutz said:

Or for something a little more realistic, it's possible everyone will tumble badly again such that Dennis Ten will win OGM. Nevermind the probability you are referring to is a big long shot. What you refused to understand, which is puzzling to me, is that Plushenko's current Technical content is insufficient such that several men can afford 2 major errors and still beat him technically. In other words, even if Plushenko were clean, some of current top male skaters can still beat him by being less than clean because they have so much more content than he does.

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It's not as long a shot as you want to make it out to be.
Oh, and wait, Hanyu's higher TES, where did we have that already? Yes, when you were so eager to point out that despite the highest TES at worlds 2013, his PCS kept him off the podium. You can believe Plush's PCS will be around 70 all you want, it won't happen (especially after the scores we saw at coR this weekend). I'm pretty sure Plush's clean LP with the Volvo Cup layout would beat what Hanyu did at TEB because of PCS.
And several men? When did several men actually pull out 90+ TES scores? Without specifically looking for it, I'd think Chan, Machida and Fernandez were the only ones this season so far. Hanyu did last season. Takahashi could. Everyone else, like maybe Max Aaron, won't get the PCS. You refer to Hanyu as if he was the average of what the men are attempting these days, but he's not.

seniorita said:

At which point of Volvo video plushenko does airplane arms and hip thrusts?

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Airplane arms:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=0m09s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=0m34s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=0m50s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=2m27s

Excessive two foot skating / excessively long stationary moves not using blades or rest periods :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=0m4s to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=1m14s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=1m36s to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=1m46s, pirouette for 1 sec, then continue at : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=1m48s to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=1m55s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=2m1s to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=2m30s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=2m10s to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=3m09s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=3m24s

I'm really interested in what PCS Evgeni's gonna receive at the official ISU event, too bad he didn't compete in the GP.

plushyfan said:

This is a good qestion. I think she/he has "learned" it and repeats even if not true, because it sounds good for those people who don't like him. I could read after Vancouver "the fs isn't only one jump",

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I am happy to discuss any elements of this program with you openly and transparently, that is if you are interested in candid feedback. Plushenko doesn't need any more people to tell him he is perfect - the emperor has no clothes already. Perhaps there is a conflict of philosophy, like it or not, there is going to be quite a bit of Western and non-European judges on the men's panel in the Olympics. All the two foot skating and pausing is much more concerning than whether he does enough transitions or not. The ability for skater to perform sustainable one foot skating affects all aspects of program components. Contrary to popular myth, it's not limited to just SS or TR. A skater who is unable to deliver a composition made up mostly of solid one foot skating is not going to get high marks for CH or IN no matter how charming or cute the program may be. The perfect example of such case is Florent Amodio. Even when he won the Europeans, there were quite a few people who were puzzled by his win seeing how this young man barely used his blades at all. Once outside of Europeans, he was never able to duplicate much of success at all, even during that same year and even less since. Nowadays, even his CH and IN marks are dismal - surely, he hasn't forgot his showmanship, has he?

The amount of time that Plushenko spent on two feet in this program is just mind blowing, I even listed the precise minute and seconds for those who want to tally it up. It's as though he in unable to stand on one foot at all. Take any other top 5 male skater's FS and compare, any reasonable skating fan can see the huge difference between their programs and Plushenko's, ignoring the required elements.

Moment said:

I'm really interested in what PCS Evgeni's gonna receive at the official ISU event, too bad he didn't compete in the GP.

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I think many people want to know as well, except Plushenko and his team. They are purposely avoiding any official scoring precisely because they know it's not in his best interests to do so. Therefore, my scoring is to give people a ballpark idea on where he stands if he were to enter a judged event right now sans the reputational aspect.

Some people, like Mathman already speculated, that so long as Plushenko lands his jumps, everything else is just mere details. I don't agree. Men's skating has changed quite a bit since the 2010 Olympics. While Europe as a whole continues to struggle in producing a dominant male skater, the rest of world, namely Japan and Canada did not slow down at all. While Plushenko was viewed as the favorite going into the 2010 Olympics, he is no where near such regard this time around. The Japanese men have become so good that they are all out-jumping Plushenko and more. Given that Plushenko no longer has an edge with his jumps and everything else including spins and most notably basic skating and footwork lag seriously behind, his technical ability is now at a significant disadvantage vs. the other top men such that they can afford mistakes and still beat Plushenko technically. If they can beat Plushenko technically, it's highly unlikely Plushenko's PCS will save him from defeat.

Hm. Wallylutz I became really curious, do you now the facts? Well, I help you

-end of january he had the spinal surgery
- he didn't do anything to april
-In April he began to preparation with the general training: running, gymnastic, but he wasn't on ice.
-In May he began workouts on the ice, but didn't jump
- In mid-June received the permission of the Israeli doctor to jumping, thus the end of June he began to do the triples
-In July, his first 3A, even though he wanted to give up because the pain didn't disappear. His wife was the one who said that "you can do it , you can do it.."
- In August: he landed in the first quad jump. ( If I right remember, the other skaters perform on theire first competiions, and test skating ....)

So I really do not understand how to ask from him the second combo, the perfect spins, etc . Not to mention, the whole Russian media, and not just the Russian!!! watched with the great interest the Volvo Cup, because of him. As he said he was nervous and very controlled. He didn't compete from January..I believe he is a genius, but it seems, you also believe on him, if you think he would have to skate as Hanyu, Dai, and any top skaters at that competition.

a witness, she isn't Russian:

"I saw him live. Sooooo sorry from the video is not possible to see his face during the last sequence. He was smiling and "all the body was smiling". One of his best interpretation!! Audience exploded for him!! People must see him live to understand."

wallylutz said:

I am happy to discuss any elements of this program with you openly and transparently, that is if you are interested in candid feedback. Plushenko doesn't need any more people to tell him he is perfect - the emperor has no clothes already. Perhaps there is a conflict of philosophy, like it or not, there is going to be quite a bit of Western and non-European judges on the men's panel in the Olympics. All the two foot skating and pausing is much more concerning than whether he does enough transitions or not. The ability for skater to perform sustainable one foot skating affects all aspects of program components. Contrary to popular myth, it's not limited to just SS or TR. A skater who is unable to deliver a composition made up mostly of solid one foot skating is not going to get high marks for CH or IN no matter how charming or cute the program may be. The perfect example of such case is Florent Amodio. Even when he won the Europeans, there were quite a few people who were puzzled by his win seeing how this young man barely used his blades at all. Once outside of Europeans, he was never able to duplicate much of success at all, even during that same year and even less since. Nowadays, even his CH and IN marks are dismal - surely, he hasn't forgot his showmanship, has he?

The amount of time that Plushenko spent on two feet in this program is just mind blowing, I even listed the precise minute and seconds for those who want to tally it up. It's as though he in unable to stand on one foot at all. Take any other top 5 male skater's FS and compare, any reasonable skating fan can see the huge difference between their programs and Plushenko's, ignoring the required elements.

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Maybe you are really an expert, I'm not. I have one answer for you. In last year he could win the Euros. I didn't say, he will win the Oly, (we can't be sure that he will compete in that competition) but his skating will be great. Because he is Plushenko.

plushyfan said:

Hm. Wallylutz I became really curious, do you now the facts? Well, I help you

-end of january he had the spinal surgery
- he didn't do anything to april
-In April he began to preparation with the general training: running, gymnast, but he wasn't on ice.
-In May he began workouts on the ice, but didn't jump
- In mid-June received the permission of the Israeli doctor to jumping, thus the end of June he began to do the triples
-In July, his first 3A, even though he wanted to give up because the pain didn't disappear. His wife was the one who said that "you can do it , you can do it.."
- In August: he landed in the first quad jump. ( If I right remember, the other skaters perform on theire first competiions, and test skating ....)

So I really do not understand how to ask from him the second combo, the perfect spins, etc . Not to mention, the whole Russian media, and not just the Russian!!! watched with the great interest the Volvo Cup, because of him. As he said he was nervous and very controlled. He didn't compete from January..I believe he is a genius, but it seems, you also believe on him, if you think he would have to skate as Hanyu, Dai, and any top skaters at that competition.

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plushyfan, I sympathize with his difficult road of recovery and understand your admiration for him. Unfortunately, the Olympic Games is only 2.5 months away. It doesn't matter whether his body still think it's August, the fact is GP season is already over and many top male skaters will be heading to their last international competition before Sochi is less than 10 days of time.

As an observer, I am not admonishing his current technical content but merely remarking what I saw on ice. Furthermore, I cannot take into account his press releases or announcements, not even if he is dedicating his last Olympics to all the orphans in the world. Maybe Plushenko did plan a 3rd combo somewhere or maybe he even has a 2nd Quad planned in his program as well, that's all besides the point. The fact of the matter is he did not attempt them in the competition he chose to take part and I can only go by what I saw. Given that the deadline of Sochi Olympics will not be moved because he is still recovering from an injury, my assessment as of November 2013 is that Plushenko is not ready to take on the big guns yet, neither technically, even less so from a presentation standpoint. As for enduring pressure and stress from stakeholders and the media, he is not alone. All the top men have a lot to carry on their shoulders, especially for those Japanese men. In their culture, death is sometimes preferable than shame and dishonor, that's how extreme the Japanese can be. Stories of Japanese committing suicide from all walks of life is not infrequent. We don't know what kind of pressure these top Japanese skaters are dealing with but it's probably a good guess that the pressure is enormous.

a witness, she isn't Russian:

"I saw him live. Sooooo sorry from the video is not possible to see his face during the last sequence. He was smiling and "all the body was smiling". One of his best interpretation!! Audience exploded for him!! People must see him live to understand."

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I am willing to take this witness' account at face value, even so, it's not relevant. Judging of PCS, different from the casual "you like apple and I like orange", is that there are specific elements that the judges are looking for under each criterion. While the ability to interact with the audience is important and definitely should be considered by the judges, it is only a small part among many many more parts that together form PCS. At the core of PCS is the ability to use your blades to compose a choreography and present the chosen music. This sentence summarizes all 5 components of PCS in nutshell. The issue at hand is not whether Plushenko can smile or not. If you ask me, I find him to be charming and attractive. In Singles Skating, excessive two foot skating simply does not belong at the elite level. In fact, there are quite a few skaters who can do all these jumps yet some of them don't even make top 20 at worlds or even qualify for World Championships. You don't see them on TV but their number is not small. I remember there was a North Korean male skater at the 2010 Olympics, his jumps were very impressive - but he couldn't even make the cut for free skate. Also, unlike many here, I have seen Plushenko competing in person, last time, it was at the 2010 Olympics. If anything, time has really taken a toll on his body. Despite Mishin's claim to contrary, Plushenko in 2013 is no where near where he was in 2010 and the 2010 Olympics Plushenko can't medal in 2014 Olympics.

I think a good plan for the team event would be to have Kovtun do the SP and Plushenko the LP.

How could anyone say plushenko can't do one foot skating when here are twizzles all over the place? You post Links to a video that disproves a major point and argument?

gmyers said:

when here are twizzles all over the place?

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Please show us where all these twizzles that are all over the place.

pangtongfan said:

I think a good plan for the team event would be to have Kovtun do the SP and Plushenko the LP.

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The same Russian man must skate both the SP and the LP -- per the rules for the Sochi team event. (I assume PTF is referring to the Sochi team event. I can't think of any other imminent team event.)
Only the one man on Team Russia who will skate in the individual men's competition is allowed to skate in the Sochi team event. NO additional man is permitted.
(The Olympic rules allow the possibility of additional team skaters only if a country did not qualify for any slots in the individual competition for the discipline.)

In other words, the rules make PTF's plan impossible.
(Sorry, I have not read the entire thread, but did not want PTF's misconception to be perpetuated.)

wallylutz said:

Please show us where all these twizzles that are all over the place.

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In the video you posted. It's all there. Just like 2010 extreme irrational hatred of plushenko is coming back!

gmyers said:

In the video you posted. It's all there. Just like 2010 extreme irrational hatred of plushenko is coming back!

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I did your homework for you since this is short & easy:

The only one "twizzle" Plushenko did, which is not a part of his required Step Sequence element can be found right here :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=1m45s

It lasted not even half of a second and his foot barely left the ground but I suppose it can qualify as a twizzle if we apply its definition very, very liberally.

The other twizzles can be found here :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=3m13s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=3m20s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=3m36s

Except all three are a part of his required Step Sequence element, which does not count as an in-between demonstration of one-foot skating. :sarcasm: Even then, you can see at 3m37s mark, he actually slipped on the last turn. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE#t=3m37s

As a result, based on the above review that your claim re: he did twizzles all over the place, is now firmly debunked as false. He barely completed a twizzle once outside of his required elements. In fact, one should say he had zero twizzles in his program outside of the required step sequence element.

We'll see. Judges do not always go consistently and conscientiously by the letter if the rule book when it comes to program component scores. Quite the contrary. We often find ourselves scratching our heads at some of the high scores we see. I will be surprised if the Olympic judges do not find a way to match Plushenko's PCS to his TES: 85+85 = 170. :yes: