Takahashi withdraws from GPF
It says "he got injured during practice session on 26th"
and "takes two weeks to heal".
Probably not that serious.
The first alternate Oda is taking his place. Good for him!
One does not simply skate into Sochi
That really sucks. I still hope for an Olympic Medal for Dai and I hope he will be ok sooner than later.
Politically speaking, Takahashi's WD is helpful for Hanyu. Now Hanyu will be the home favorite in Japan, who can expect similar treatments with Takahashi at NHK trophy (even if not that blatant though). Oda could get lucky but he is helpless anyway. All judges (including Japanese) will try to hold him down. In this year, the highest finisher at GPF could be considered as the Olympic medal favorite for Japan. That position SHOULD belong to Hanyu OR Takahashi. I expect Hanyu's PCS will rise drastically. It would be some threat for Chan. Probably 290 points is the taｒget score, if Hanyu lands all jumps (like Chan at TEB).
Considering Hanyu's FS PCS this GP season is between 76.86 and 81.94, to reach 290, he will probably have to score somewhere near 92~95 in PCS. In terms of the content that Hanyu has in his FS, he simply doesn't have what it takes to break 90s in PCS, favoritism or otherwise. The fact is Hanyu couldn't even beat Kevin Reynolds in Japan for the Four Continents title and his PCS again, failed to breach 82.
Originally Posted by NMURA
This is how Hanyu did in terms of PCS in his Free Skate in 2013 at ISU Championships and GP :
Four Continents (Osaka, Japan) : 81.78
World Championships (London, Canada) : 80.00
Skate Canada Int'l (Moncton, Canada) : 76.86
Trophee Eric Bompard (Paris, France) : 81.94
It should noted that at Worlds, he more or less landed all his jumps but his PCS dropped by 9+ points anyway compared to his TES.
To expect Hanyu to suddenly be competitive against Chan merely 3 weeks after being beaten by 30+ points is not realistic and would likely put undue pressure on his shoulders. For starter, Hanyu needs to get rid of his current outfit in the FS or else some people will continue to raise their eyebrows whenever they see it, justified or otherwise. It just doesn't make him look champion worthy and everyone needs to dress to win. Whether in skating or business world, humans judge each other on their outfit, it's been so for the entire duration of human history.
Wishing Dai a speedy recovery....and good luck at Japanese Nationals!
For "clean" Hanyu, 290 is absolutely attainable.
SP TES 53.5 PCS 43.5 = 97.0
FS TES 104 PCS 89 = 193.0
If you replace the first two jump paths of his TEB free with Finlandia's, the TES will be 103.8. He received the PCS of 87 points at Finlandia. It will be a little higher with perfection as the home favorite. Last year, he received 85.2 points PCS at GPF in Sochi (with a little short of perfection). By the way, his PCS at last years GPS (79.6 @SA, 78.8 @NHK) are lower than this year's TEB (81.8). There are much rooms to improve. Of course, such scores could put huge pressure on Chan. That would be the best mental test for Chan, who always skates poorly in Japan.
I'm not quite so sure. Oda has been fairly consistent and was also close to beating Hanyu in their first head-to-head. If Hanyu skates another FS like TEB, then he will quite probably lose to Oda. Hanyu losing to Dai isn't as big a deal as him losing to Oda.
Originally Posted by NMURA
Forever stuck on those steps
"Another FS like TEB", erm... Hanyus LP at SC, the one where Oda nearly beat him, was worse than his TEB LP. It scored 14 points lower. And even this "bad" LP lost to Nobus better one from NHK by 2 points. Not to mention that Hanyus overall score from TEB still is 10 points higher than Odas from NHK. Of corse it's possible that Oda might beat Hanyu, but Hanyu with his TEB LP will pretty likely not lose to Oda... and there's the SP too and Oda is actually not anymore consistent than Hanyu is. (And I'm saying that although I really want him to skate well and be the 3rd japanese man for Sochi).
Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy
We will make a Chanfan of you yet!
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
You are so right. I love Hanyu but he seems to melt down in the long.
On the matter of Hanyu and Oda I think Oda's program is simpler and doesnt rack up the points the same way.
Time will tell.
I think stamina is not the problem for Hanyu any more. You can see that by his perfect FS except for the first two quads. His urgent problem is getting the 4S more consistent. Its success ratio is improving compared to the last season. It looks like TEB was on his off day as far as the 4S was concerned. If Hanyu could land it, he is most likely to collect TES higher than 93. According to a recent interview, Hanyu himself is confident about breaking 100 in TES in near future.
Time William Tell. (sorry)
Hate to hear of this injury. At least he withdrew in time to place an alternate.
I cut Hanyu some slack. He does two quads (different ones at that), and two axels in his program and not many men out there attempt that kind of difficulty. Unfortunately, he seems to have this vested interest in executing a 4S, when his 4T is more consistent for him. I think Hanyu is certainly capable of a clean program, but not with that 4S in there. It seems he's adamant to keep it in there in order to avoid turning his 3Z into a 2A to avoid Zayaking. Points-wise it makes sense, but not if he's unable to land the 4S consistently.
As for "SP TES 53.5 PCS 43.5 = 97.0; FS TES 104 PCS 89 = 193.0". Um, no. Just... no. You're speaking in terms of the ideals of ideals. Maybe with home ice inflation he can hit 97 in his SP, but there's absolutely no way he's getting 193 points in his FS. He would have to smash his PB by 16 points... and he's no Patrick Chan. The highest Yuzu has scored on TES in the FS is 91.99 -- you're quite idealistic to think he'll score 104 points of TES. One could argue it happened with Ten last year where he smashed his PB at Worlds, but that wasn't with the difficulty and risk Yuzu is attempting.