At this moment Takahashi, Hanyu and Machida seem to be the most likely ones, in my opinion.
Bona Fide Member
Yes, this is my opinion,too.
Originally Posted by Jaana
So with GPF done:
The spots goes as follows:
1.) Winner of nationals
2.) 2nd at nationals/3rd at nationals/Highest GPF finisher
3.) 2nd at nationals/3rd at nationals/Upper 3 world standing/season's best.
Machida is still very much in it, though Oda made it interesting by beating him at GPF. If Machida beats Oda, he will definitely go. However if Oda beats Machida at nationals, it's not a slam dunk because JSF can pick Machida based on Season's Best/World Ranking.
I think Hanyu and Takahashi are safe regardless of their nationals result.
Japanese nationals is going to be a nailbitter for that third spot.
It's a shame because based on their GPF, both Oda and Michida are potential podium finisher. We can assume that both Hanyu and Chan are a lock for podium finish, unless they bombs so badly. That leave Dai, Oda or Michida next in standing. Fernandez has been lack luster this season, and we have to wait till European, if he can regain his spark. None of the American men or other European men are impressive both TES or PCS wise.
When is Japanese national start?
Obviously Yuzuru is now really a lock even if he sat on the ice and did nothing at Nationals (or WD). Takahashi is probably still a lock, even if he has a poor Nationals, as neither Oda or Machida did great at the Grand Prix final (Oda did quite well, but not excellent, and I am talking his performances and scores, not his 3rd place).
Oda beating Machida helps his chances for the team, but IMO he still needs to beat Machida at Nationals if he is going to make it.
Between Oda and Machida, i think Michida has a better success rate of landing his quad so far and this help him putting into equation. Oda quad has been hit or miss and thou falling on quad is not devastating point wise, it does put into question mark. Either way, both of them are top 5 materials and if they didn't make it to Sochi, i'm sure they will be sent to World and they can def get onto podium, safetly assuming all the Sochi podium finishers will likely skip the world.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
Quick thought: If Yuzuru wins Nats, does that mean the second qualification spot has to go to either the 2nd or 3rd place finisher at Nats? And the GPF results past the top finisher are essentially nullified? If Oda and/or Machida falter vs. the likes of Mura and Kozuka, then their strong GP showings might not hold them up enough. Nationals will be intensely important for the second and third spots. Really really hoping Dai will be fully recovered by then.
Originally Posted by Mrs. P