Well, adding a 4th combo would have him zayaking, so he would need to cancel one of the later combos. Another quad-combo wouldn't pay off, not with the way this system works (although it should). Unless you meant to upgrade the 4S-2T to a 4S-3T (looking at his CoC LP), that would give him about 3 points more. He'd still not even quite tie Hanyu. (Part of that probably comes from Kovtun 'just' going for 5 additional triples. Of course 3 quads + 5 triples is a tough layout, but Hanyu goes for 2 quads + 8 triples).Originally Posted by qwertyskates
It boils down to their mental state at the end, I didn't do the Math too carefully but wasn't Kovtun's base value for both SP & LP during CoC on par with (or close to) Hanyu's? (edit: ok, it's not, but with 4S-3T& 4T, closer) He popped two of his jumps at CoC at least and fell during steps, but his PCS was low balled for both. His TES was 46+ for SP w a fall, received 36+ for PCS. I reckon at Sochi he might get TES close to 50 and also PCS to match.
I might be wrong but I have a hunch that it's not Kovtun who is waiting in the wings for Plushenko, but Plushenko waiting to see if Kovtun is ready for Sochi. If Kovtun isn't, Plushenko would go but he'll be facing a difficult TES battle as the most senior and injured skater there. I love Menshov, but Sochi was why he got a raw deal from the Russian Fed.
Watching Chan's LP again on CBC I would have to say the PCS he is getting for this LP are way over the top, even when he skates well. The edge work is excellent as always, but compared to Lambiel's program to the same music the interpretation, performance, and choreography is all significantly inferior, although the skating skills are better:
Today his GOE were also grossly exagerrated. He did all the jumps cleanly but they werent as good as he can do, and they were tight and low. The first triple axel was super ugly and stiff and still got very high GOE. It is silly think even had Hanyu landed his 4salchow the GOE between the two would have been close, which was definitely not accurate to reality today.