watching her season has been painful, she has been declining this season instead of building momentum for Sochi
what appears little hope for qualifying for Olympics seems abysmal now with her recent skates losing to Nagasu and a slow Ando
she might not even be an Alternate that might go to Pogorilaya
did Tuk peaked already in her career in 2011 ?
is she becoming the Russian Rachael Flatt or a better comparison yet, she is turning into the female Gachinski
Flatt was touted as at least reliable in her early career
same with Tuk her FS was mostly reliable, now FS consistency is gone, her 3lz-3T is not stable and is popping jumps
because Tuk doesnt have good lines nor a good spinner with average SS , she cannot make up the deficit if she makes errors in her jumps thus her PCS suffers alot
Well she is a growing girl, going through puberty with the public watching. If she doesn't get picked for Sochi, it will be disappointing, but she is still young and can try for the next Olympics. She will be done with puberty and use to her new body.
I know its hard for her fans to see her not at her best. She is one of my favorite Russian girls. When she first came out I thought this girl may just win the Olympics. But you never know do you.
I don't think she should feel bad about losing to Nagasu. Nagasu has been down the same road as Liza, and finally had a decent skate.
I'm still hoping Liza will have a break through performance at nationals and make the team.
If she decides to keep going it may be time to make some changes in coaching, choreography, styling!
Her showing in Zagreb was plain weak I am sorry to say, and brings her no closer to a Russian Olympic team spot even with Sotnikova and Pogs showing unspectacularly at the final. She will need to hit it out of the park at both Nationals and Europeans (if she makes it there) and hope for Sotnikova to struggle at both events to make the team.
At this point Liza cannot just make the team by Nationals, even if she were to win Nationals. She would have to do 2 great competitions- Nationals and Europeans, to have any hope to make it. By contrast Julia and Adelina just have to do well at 1 of 2 and they make it for sure.
Originally Posted by flying camel
I dont think she will be dissapointed if she isnt picked for Sochi at this point. I think even she knows she is a real long shot at this point.
I love Liza's jumps, but she looks to be someone who doesn't have the physical capability to have the proper stamina to be an elite athlete.
I think that once the dust settles after Sochi, the only wonderbaby standing will be Adelina. The rest will fall by the wayside (even Elena, and I love her to bits).
I like Tuk, and Adelina too, I think they are both talented, but whichever of them goes to Sochi, I hope they earn it.
I mean, sure, people can argue, Adelina had a complete meltdown in the FS at GPF and still beat Anna (not by much), but the way I see it, Adelina made an embarrassment of herself at the GPF while Anna did not. Sure, Anna didn't skate her best, but she's 15 and this was by far her worst international event this season and she still skated very respectably and earned a decent score considering her age and where she is in her development. Idk, I feel like if Liza or Adelina gets sent to the Olympics, bombs one or both programs, and winds up say 8th-12th place - that is an embarassment for them, they are touted as big hopes and potential medal contenders for Russia and they flop. Whereas if Anna goes and achieves a similar placement (and she could place higher, if she skates like CoC or TEB or totally clean, I think she could place in the 4th-7th range, even), it's not seen as a big disappointment because she's 15 and an investment for the future, no one is touting her as a medal contender, and she'd probably still land a whole lot of triples even if she's having an off night (like she did at GPF - not her best in both programs, but landing 3lz-3t in both and 6 ratified triples in the FS and just one fall).
Don't get me wrong I know Liza and Adelina can place better than Anna if they skate up to their abilities, and one of them should get to go to the Olympics if they earn it at Nats and/or Euros, but idk, at this point I trust Anna and feel like if she were to get sent to the Olympics, she would hold her own and make Russia at least decently proud, whereas if Adelina or Liza go and melt down, I think they could make a big embarrassment of themselves and Russia and it would be detrimental to their careers and confidence. JMO and there's always the chance that they deliver at the Games, I just don't trust either girl right now, it's so unpredictable, they can both be brilliant or a hot mess.
I kind of feel the same way about the Americans too. For example, I think Edmunds or Cesario would hold their own and have strong showings at the Olympics even if their scores/placements aren't that high, and that sending one of them makes more sense than sending Gold if she doesn't earn it or some wildcard like Nagasu or Zawadzki who could, sure, potentially score and place higher, but also could very well make an embarrassment of themselves and have a meltdown. In the case of Gold, like Sotnikova she could potentially score or place higher than a solid but imperfect Edmunds or Cesario with a meltdown in one or both programs, but again it's the principle of the situation, Gracie's face is plastered all over everything and she's supposed to be our Golden Girl so having her go bomb and place 8th-12th looks bad whereas if Edmunds or Cesario were to achieve the same placement but keep it together it would be good for their careers and the USFS.
Anna had quite a good competition at the Final and lost to Adelina who had a poor LP again. So that doesnt bode well for Anna's chances to beat out Sotnikova for the 2nd spot. I think either Anna P. or Tuks will need to beat Sotnikova at BOTH the Nationals and Europeans (if one makes it there) to oust her for that 2nd spot. Julia is still a lock, just as most all of called for 2 months plus now.
At this point I would say that Liza peeked in 2011, yes she has had some puberty issues, but even her best skates this season (IMO) are not any better than her skates in 2011. I don't feel that there has been a increase in an area of her skating, only the addition of a mental block she seems to have developed with the short program. Plus a few weeks ago there was mention that she had some back injury.
I wonder if this is going to be a consistent problem with the Russian Ladies- 1 year they are the greatest thing since slice bread and the next year puberty hits and everyone is off to the next girl.
I think Julia will always be a consistent skater. She already had most of her growth spurt and came out well. Her jumps are not big, but not tiny as some of her detractors say. They are much bigger than say Caroline Zhang ever did. What her career will become I dont know, but I think she will be the consistent champion Russia looks for.
I see some real progress in Adelina and her consistency of late. Hopefully she continues that progress, especialy as she has more tools at this point anyway to score highly if she skates perfectly than Julia who still has some areas to improve to get really huge scores, even on her best day.
I know that that's why I think she will not go to the Olympics, I'm just saying that Anna going and earning a similar score/placement to a meltdown Adelina or Liza looks better because she's younger and not making an embarrassment of herself and no one is touting her as a medal contender.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
Also, the result of GPF should teach Anna the value of a clean SP. She would have beaten Adelina were it not for the waxel in the SP and Adelina had a great SP which saved her after she bombed the FS. Liza usually has good FS too so really if Anna wants to make a strong case to be ranked ahead of Liza delivering clean SPs is important - her 3lz-3t is great but she needs the 2a, with it she can score 64-65 internationally and potentially higher at Nationals, but without the 2a she's basically in the same boat as Liza now that Liza's SPs are becoming less catastrophic.
At this point I would favor Anna over Elizaveta, and Adelina over both, but that can change by Nationals. Right now the pecking order though I think is:
Wow just realized Liza scored 169 at Golden Spin and her TES in the FS was only 50. Her PCS were pretty good for her, but it may have just been the panel, they were generous for Ando and Kim too. Idk, Anna and Adelina both outscored Liza's GS score at GPF and neither were at their best, I'm thinking Adelina is still probably going to the Olympics even though it's anyone's guess to how she skates there.
Tuks had lower PCS than Ando in both programs which is hardly a great sign considering Ando probably wont even make the Japanese Olympic team, is slow, and doesnt have particularly strong PCS at this point herself. So PCS wont hold her up, not even against young and developing Russian girls, and she still is struggling with her jump consistency.
Tuktamysheva probably won't make the Olympic team this year. But she is looking marvelous and her skating has gained so much in maturity and entertainment value. I especially like her short program.
leave no stone unturned
Liza maybe not be picked but at least with her disaster Zagreb skate she got more points than Adelina in Gpf. I still like her jumps when on and her spark. I don't know why Mishin doesn't get her a 3t-3t, to increase her confidence, she looks scared, she skates the same 3 lutz combo all season. Adelina is more packaged skater so I suppose she will go to Sochi. Anna " s fs program is not good and she is skating through music, she is younger of course and inexperienced.
Also Liza is 17 years old, to write someone off at this age is ridiculous, I had seen Wagner in 2009 and was not impressed and now look where she got, she is a wonderful skater and a medal contender!
It will be nice also to be careful when talking about puberty weight issues of these young ladies, it won't make our favorite look better if we put down their competitors.