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Thread: Ashley (and Carolina etc.)--do they have a chance for a medal?

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    Ashley (and Carolina etc.)--do they have a chance for a medal?

    I'm thinking it's pretty much set: YuNa, Mao and Julia, in whatever order. I'm a little sad, since I was thinking that Ashley was skating pretty well and could maybe sneak in and get a bronze. I also feel sorry for Carolina (who I'm not a big fan of, but she's certainly paid her dues) who I think is also becoming a longer shot.

    Does anyone think anybody else could make the podium at Sochi? And under what circumstances? (Besides the obvious one, multiple falls/mistakes by the front runners, which I think isn't likely, at least with the older two skaters.)

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    I think the podium you refer is most likely but Julia can be bumped off by a clean Kostner or clean Wagner, especialy if she skates in a cleanish but unspectacular way like she did this event, and does not deliver a huge SP like she did at the Rostelecom Cup (and did not do here either). With home court advantage it will be harder to bump her off though, and she will be more a threat to Kim and Mao than she would be anywhere outside Russia.

    I am not sure if anyone behind Wagner or Kostner can medal. I dont think Sotnikova can do 2 programs strong enough together to medal, and I dont think Suzuki can either, but I guess some would give 1 of those 2 a very slim shot.

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    If they are clean Sotnikova and Gold can steal a medal. Especially Gold.

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    I don't think Julia's assured of a medal at all, but probably does have the best chance of the rest. Adelina skated a truly awful LP today and still got the same PCS as Julia. If everyone is clean, Ashley, Adelina, Akiko, Carolina, and probably Gracie would place ahead of Julia. So to say Julia is assured of a medal is to say all of those ladies will make more mistakes than Julia, which could happen but is by no means a certainty.

    I think we generally want to read too much into the results of one competition to make assertions about the future. Last spring we were saying Liza and Adelina would be going to Sochi and that it was a done deal. After CoC we were saying Anna has surpassed Adelina and she will for sure be going to Sochi. Julia has had a great body of work this season, but Ashley has also. Carolina and Akiko also are capable of producing greatness in the big events as well. The podium, particularly 3rd, is absolutely up for grabs.

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    No way would Gold beat a clean Julia in Russia. Not a chance. Akiko would not either. Remember the judges are not going to score those against each other in Russia (especialy with Julia having build her rep up alot) as say Skate Canada.

    I have strong doubts whether a clean Ashley would beat a clean Julia in Russia as well, although I guess it is possible and would depend on performance level that day. Caroline is not a lock to beat a clean Julia in Russia either, even with a clean skate. Do we forget a clean Caroline got clobbered by Julia in the Rostelecom Cup SP by a whopping 5 points. Again do not overlook the Russian factor in the scores. Julia would never get her SP score at COR anywhere else for instance for the same skate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    No way would Gold beat a clean Julia in Russia. Not a chance. Akiko would not either. Remember the judges are not going to score those against each other in Russia (especialy with Julia having build her rep up alot) as say Skate Canada.

    I have strong doubts whether a clean Ashley would beat a clean Julia in Russia as well, although I guess it is possible and would depend on performance level that day. Caroline is not a lock to beat a clean Julia in Russia either, even with a clean skate. Do we forget a clean Caroline got clobbered by Julia in the Rostelecom Cup SP by a whopping 5 points. Again do not overlook the Russian factor in the scores. Julia would never get her SP score at COR anywhere else for instance for the same skate.
    I know what you are saying about PCS at home but here's the issue. A clean Adelina scores about 4 points ahead of Julia in LP PCS, and since they are both at home we would expect this advantage to remain. So I don't see Julia outscoring Ashley and Akiko in PCS because that would put them about 5 points behind Adelina when they both should be ahead of Adelina normally.

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    Gold can beat Julia If she is clean. Her GOE for jumps are better than Lipnitskaia. Her spins are good too unlike Wagner and Kostner. She shuldn't been in the last group of course. I don't think she can skate under pressure.

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    "Hold an edge and look sexy!" museksk8r's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by elif View Post
    Gold can beat Julia If she is clean. Her GOE for jumps are better than Lipnitskaia. Her spins are good too unlike Wagner and Kostner. She shuldn't been in the last group of course. I don't think she can skate under pressure.
    Gold would never get anywhere near the PCS of Kostner though, and rightfully so. Wagner also consistently beats Gold in PCS. The mature women have better choreography and musical interpretation. Kostner also has much better skating skills and Wagner also has better transitions than Gold.

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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    Gold would never get anywhere near the PCS of Kostner though, and rightfully so. Wagner also consistently beats Gold in PCS. The mature women have better choreography and musical interpretation. Kostner also has much better skating skills and Wagner also has better transitions than Gold.
    Gold can break 39 TES-30 PCS in the short program easily If she is clean. She has harder jumps and good GOE for spins. Her short program should be higher than Kostner and Wagner. With this score she can be in the last group. She can get higher PCS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by elif View Post
    Gold can break 39 TES-30 PCS in the short program easily If she is clean. She has harder jumps and good GOE for spins. Her short program should be higher than Kostner and Wagner. With this score she can be in the last group. She can get higher PCS.
    Gracie is not that far off from Wagner actually. Gold has better speed bigger jumps and better spins. She's been a mess this season but not making the GPF might have been for the best. She can work with Frank and hopefully get it together for Nationals. Yes Ashley beat Gracie all 3 times they met last season but Wagner only beat Gracie by 3.09 at Nationals 2.27 at Worlds and .57 at WTT. Not exactly dominating wins. If Gracie ever skates clean she will beat Wagner. Whether that ever happens though who knows. Gracie really should have been at the GPF considering how some of the skaters like Adelina performed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I know what you are saying about PCS at home but here's the issue. A clean Adelina scores about 4 points ahead of Julia in LP PCS, and since they are both at home we would expect this advantage to remain. So I don't see Julia outscoring Ashley and Akiko in PCS because that would put them about 5 points behind Adelina when they both should be ahead of Adelina normally.
    1. I dont think Sotnikova will outscore Julia by 4 points in PCS if both skate cleanly.
    2. Julia IMO is right now Russian #1 so will benefit more from home court inflation than Adelina.
    3. In Russia Adelina is likely to beat Akiko and Ashley in PCS too if she skates cleanly (whether deserved or not).
    4. Julia does not need to beat Akiko and Ashley in PCS. She will beat both in TES if all 3 are clean, especialy in Russia.

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    Well, of course Kostner stands a chance for a medal. After all, she's the only one that medalled in all 3 post-2010 worlds and she has a full set of medals from this quad. Right now she may be struggling a bit, but people in general have a tendency to pay too much importance to one competition or so. I think that having less pressure may actually help her, it was probably the cause of her 2006 not-so-good showing, while in 2010 it was the jumping issues. I still would say she's really likely to take the bronze medal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poodlepal View Post
    I also feel sorry for Carolina (who I'm not a big fan of, but she's certainly paid her dues) who I think is also becoming a longer shot.
    I blame Lori Nichol. Don't ask why, because I do just because.

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    Never ever say anything is set at the Olympics, how many times have there been surprise upset and medalists? Ashley, Carolina and the others do have a chance. As much exitement as the Russian teen skaters are creating, they're still young and with the exception of Sotnikova and and Tuktamysheva, haven't been to the World Championships. I don't see why everyone thinks it's set just because the Russians were marked a bit high at the COR. Come on! Anything can happen.

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    I think unless these 3 fall in their programs the podium will be: Yuna Kim, Mao Asada and Julia Lipnitskaia.

    Kim and Asada are the top 2 skaters.. Julia is far too consistent to be left off the Olympic team for Russia, the others are too inconsistent. And her team packaged her Olympic season perfectly, and she will get a boost in her scores because she will be skating on home ice (which pretty much is standard for any skater). i think its a long shot for Ashley to overcome those 3 without some help from some falls, at least not with the current programs that she has. Carolina this season has taken a step backwards in her performance and program choices.

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