Well, it's easy enough. Yuzuru started delivering again, so he went back to being considered a serious contendent. He'd fallen a couple of notches down the reputation ladder after Skate Canada's half disaster, got one back in France, and went back to where he was last season at the Final -- around five points in PCS behind Patrick. Patrick last season was getting 90, now around 95-96, so if Yuzuru had competed somewhere else I think he would have got around 90 PCS for that program. The rest of it is home inflation.
Unfortunately he's still at that stage of his career where he needs to deliver consistently, competition after competition to see his PCS rise. He would have never beaten Patrick's record if he hadn't skated a clean short in France, for example.
Unless you're one of the judges, you can't "guarantee" anything. To have made up your mind that a fall from YH vs a clean PC in the LP would guarantee an OGM for YH is mind boggling - you are assuming that YH would receive the same PCS for his flawed LP in Japan yet in another post you said 65% of PCS is home/reputation advantage, i.e. YH has been favored in the GPF in Japan by a powerful Japan Fed. Comparing the scores, I'd say even GOE for TES was marked in YH's favor at GPF. So in fact I am agreeing with you, except that I am applying the same standards and criteria consistently to all the skaters, PC, YH, JL, Mao, etc., no exceptions.
This means that there is no "guarantee" that YH would enjoy the same favoritism in Sochi, and JL probably would have home advantage instead of being underscored as at GPF. Getting Silver while skating a cleaner LP than Mao at GPF means that she is chasing Mao. JL=YH, both young talents chasing the front-runners, period.
Haha, this should be fun - which GOE were so inflated?Originally Posted by qwertyskates
That's good points I have no problems to agree with. I was just asking because the way qwertyskates worded his sentence he seems to think there are more than just two or three technical elements who received too many pointsOriginally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy
No way. The quality of Hanyu's elements in both skates (other than those few I mentioned) were fantastic. Certainly not fair to say he was overscored on GoE.
In any event, Hanyu had the highest TES at the 2013 Worlds Free Skate and still ended up off the podium. In fact, he couldn't even beat Chan in the Free Skate who fell 3 times despite having the highest TES.
Judge No.6 Ms. Sakae YAMAMOTO
Referee Mr. Kenji AMAKO
Technical Specialist Mr. Shin AMANO
Judge No.2 Ms. Mami MAEDA
Judge No.3 Ms. Tomiko YAMADA
Judge No.1 Ms. Kaoru TAKINO
Technical Specialist Ms. Ayako HIGASHINO
In fact, one should point out the referee of the Men's event is Japanese, who in turn oversaw the judges' marking for GOE and PCS. If one wants to make a case of home ice inflation, Hanyu not only had the location but also the referee being of his home country as well. For comparison, in TEB, the Referee at the Men's event is American and the tech caller, French. This is why the GPF result needs to be taken with a heavy dose of salt.
Let's do a common sense test of what transpired between TEB and GPF so that it's obvious even to a 7 year old.
Hanyu's TEB total score : 263.59 Source : http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp...3/CAT001RS.HTM
Hanyu's GPF total score : 293.25 Source :http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpf1314/CAT001RS.HTM
Difference in total score = +29.66
Hanyu's SP Base Values : 43.76 (TEB) vs. 43.86 (GPF)
Hanyu's SP GOE : 8.96 (TEB) vs. 10.66 (GPF)
Hanyu's SP PCS : 42.62 (TEB) vs. 45.32 (GPF)
Analysis : BV shows us that the two skates are virtually identical technically and the GOE are not significantly different from each other as the difference is well within the +/- of a given performance or may simply be attributed to the leniency of the panel. Even though TES has not changed much, PCS showed a clear uptrend. When PCS moves up quite a bit faster than the corresponding TES, it's akin to a company reporting significant higher revenue without a corresponding increase in cash flows, which means the quality of the earning may be suspect. In skating terms, the reliability of the PCS increase here is suspect. Nevertheless, for a virtually identical performance merely 3 weeks apart, the scoring here is not out of ordinary.
Hanyu's FS Base Values : 79.92 (TEB) vs. 88.52 (GPF)
Hanyu's FS GOE : 7.36 (TEB) vs. 13.51 (GPF)
Hanyu's FS PCS : 81.94 (TEB) vs. 92.38 (GPF)
Analysis : Hanyu in fact had one more error in the FS at GPF than TEB where one of his spins were downgraded to Lv 1 vs. three Lv 4 Spins in Paris. The higher BV is accounted for the actual rotation of the fallen 4S vs. 1S. In terms of GOE, we can see significant "increase" between the two events that are out of ordinary. First, the GOE of the first two Quads combined are only different by +2.52 between TEB and GPF. In other words, everything else being equal, Hanyu's GOE should improve by 2.52, not 6.00+ points that we are seeing. What's more puzzling is that Hanyu in fact lost GOE at GPF for botching the final spin, downgraded to Lv 1 and lost most of its GOE along with the downgrade. That should take off another 0.50 or so from this GOE. In other words, the 4.2+ in GOE have to be accounted for elsewhere from the Triples, 2 spins and 2 step sequences, a total of 10 elements. Is it possible? Sure, it's possible, just not likely. Hanyu skates those 10 elements, excluding the two opening Quads and the final spin virtually the same between the two competitions yet one is scored a wooping +4.2 higher than the other, which translates to almost +1.00 GOE gradient higher per element. Finally, the PCS has gone up by a wooping 10+ points despite a fall and a failed spin whereas Chan's PCS actually dropped by a point between the two competition.
PCS increase alone accounts for 44% of Hanyu's 29.66 points increase between the two competitions. GOE increase accounts for 26%. The two combined account for 70% increase in his total score. This 70% also represents discretionary marks that are awarded by the judges. Therefore, despite the myth that Hanyu won because of him having a higher BV, a closer look at the numbers demonstrate his win has little to do with the supposed increase in BV. In fact, let's add Hanyu's TEB Total Score (263.59) with the increase in BV for both SP and FS combined = 263.59 + 0.10 + 8.60 = 272.29 This is far below the 280.08 scored by Chan at GPF in order for Hanyu to win even after Chan made two mistakes in his SP and two more in the FS. 272.29 vs. 280.08 shows that Chan should still have room to spare but in reality, we know he didn't.
On the other hand, Chan's decreased total score can be almost entirely explained by the errors he made which resulted in lower BV and lower GOE while the PCS remained largely consistent between the two events. Therefore, it is pretty obvious whose score is of higher quality (aka. more consistent / reliable) than the other. Soon or a later, a company who is reporting much higher revenue without corresponding cash flow will have to fall down to earth.
And for comparison, the referee at the men's event in Skate Canada was Canadian. The technical controller of the men's event, Worlds 2013 in London, was Canadian. Should I take those results with a grain of salt as well?
Or maybe we should ask Shin Amano why he keeps overlooking Mao's underrotations.