Well, it's easy enough. Yuzuru started delivering again, so he went back to being considered a serious contendent. He'd fallen a couple of notches down the reputation ladder after Skate Canada's half disaster, got one back in France, and went back to where he was last season at the Final -- around five points in PCS behind Patrick. Patrick last season was getting 90, now around 95-96, so if Yuzuru had competed somewhere else I think he would have got around 90 PCS for that program. The rest of it is home inflation.
Unfortunately he's still at that stage of his career where he needs to deliver consistently, competition after competition to see his PCS rise. He would have never beaten Patrick's record if he hadn't skated a clean short in France, for example.
Unless you're one of the judges, you can't "guarantee" anything. To have made up your mind that a fall from YH vs a clean PC in the LP would guarantee an OGM for YH is mind boggling - you are assuming that YH would receive the same PCS for his flawed LP in Japan yet in another post you said 65% of PCS is home/reputation advantage, i.e. YH has been favored in the GPF in Japan by a powerful Japan Fed. Comparing the scores, I'd say even GOE for TES was marked in YH's favor at GPF. So in fact I am agreeing with you, except that I am applying the same standards and criteria consistently to all the skaters, PC, YH, JL, Mao, etc., no exceptions.
This means that there is no "guarantee" that YH would enjoy the same favoritism in Sochi, and JL probably would have home advantage instead of being underscored as at GPF. Getting Silver while skating a cleaner LP than Mao at GPF means that she is chasing Mao. JL=YH, both young talents chasing the front-runners, period.
Haha, this should be fun - which GOE were so inflated?Originally Posted by qwertyskates