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Thread: Can patrick chan close the gap on yuzuru hanyu?

  1. #76
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    I think Hanyu has a chance. Why not? If he lands all his big tricks he could conceivably out-point Chan by 5 to 10 points in TES and try to hold the PCS margin to that much, countering Patrick's mature mastery with youthful enthusiasm.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    In any event, Hanyu had the highest TES at the 2013 Worlds Free Skate and still ended up off the podium. In fact, he couldn't even beat Chan in the Free Skate who fell 3 times despite having the highest TES.
    Chan fell twice. Hanyu URed and had an edge call. Their TES/PCS scores were essentially the reverse of each other, although I would have had Hanyu slightly ahead of Chan in the FS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    If you can show that Chan or another Canadian Champion has suddenly got a boost of 30+ points vs. a similar skate less than 3 weeks earlier or to make it easier for you, just show a sudden jump of 10+ points in PCS for a single skate, then I'll take back what I said. Since you obviously can't find such example, maybe you should reconsider whether the GPF result is indicative or even likely to repeat.
    No, I can't show you. Can you show me the tapes of the japanese referee bribing the other judges so that they overscore Hanyu? Probably not. Can you lend us a time machine, so that we might travel to the future and assure ourselves that what you said will definitely happen? Nope.
    I've already explained what I think is the reason for such a big increase in PCS. That explanation makes sense to me, as I've seen the judging system work during these past years. If it doesn't make sense to you, it's your business. It's not like any of us can bring proof of what we're saying, here. Threads like these only exist for the sake of arguing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalina View Post
    No, I can't show you. Can you show me the tapes of the japanese referee bribing the other judges so that they overscore Hanyu? Probably not. Can you lend us a time machine, so that we might travel to the future and assure ourselves that what you said will definitely happen? Nope.
    I've already explained what I think is the reason for such a big increase in PCS. That explanation makes sense to me, as I've seen the judging system work during these past years. If it doesn't make sense to you, it's your business. It's not like any of us can bring proof of what we're saying, here. Threads like these only exist for the sake of arguing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    You are an idiot. JL and YH are not comparable as first and foremost their biggest strengths arent even similar. Hanyu is the best jumper in the World today. Julia is a consistent jumper with small jumps, and whose LP doesnt have as high of base value as several of her competitors.

    Julia is not considered a threat for gold in Sochi unless atleast 2 skaters bomb. If Hanyu skates well nobody but Chan even has a chance of beating him at this point, and even he isnt certain to. Thus the two are not comparable in their current situations just like I said.

    Can you stop throwing insults ("idiot", "laughable") all the time at others when they disagree with you? Keep it classy, will you?

    First of all, I was comparing YH vs PC and JL vs Mao at GPF, *not* JL vs Yuna & Mao.

    It is about the odds of a younger newcomer to the Senior circuit vs an established OGM favorite Senior, as the thread implies.

    Like I said, your personal and impolitely expressed opinion doesn't hold water against the *REALITY* of JL getting 3 Golds at international event this season and GPF Silver right behind Mao, awarded by judges. JL is chasing Mao, just as YH is chasing Chan.

    The double standards you applied - one for YH vs PC and another for JL vs MA - do not help your stance.

    Just a couple of months ago at TEB, in Europe (neutral territory), judges obviously felt that PC is the better skater. In Russia, another neutral territory, it is most likely that the criteria of judgment will be the same.

    The debate is whether this GPF win by YH over PC is definitively showing that PC is now behind YH (neutral, unbiased judgment) or if there is home advantage at work and PC is still OGM frontrunner.

    Every Fed will fight for their skater, Japan is no exception at GPF. To accuse PC of enjoying home advantage but making an exception for YH when he is skating in Japan is not rational. YH even expressed surprise at his own GPF record breaking scores - there were clearly a number of flaws.

    My own judgment is that YH is better at jumps and is more flexible, however, PC has strong jumps and many other stronger skating qualities, SS, carriage, maturity, musicality, better edges, etc. that makes for a whole package. It's jumps vs whole skating delivery. YH is like JL, better technically but behind in many other aspects vs veteran champions.

    To me, this GPF result, like others where the home favorite won, do not indicate the larger picture for Sochi.

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Yes, Yu Na Kim's WD from the grand prix series in no way impacted Julia's success this year, and makes her grand prix showings with Yu Na absent (and Kostner doing her usual sleepwalking early season routine) an accurate indicator of her Olympic chances. Hanyu also wasnt unlucky at all to have to meet Chan in both his grand prix outings. Your theories hold about as much water as little paper napkin trying to hold down a flood.

    I like Julia alot more than Hanyu who as I already mentioned I am not a fan, but if you think how Julia currently compares to Kim and Asada (or should I say doesnt remotedly compare at this point) is comparable to how Hanyu is a strong factor at the very top of the mens field, then you are beyond delusional. One will be going to the Olympics with serious hopes of a gold medal, and shouldnt do worse than silver unless he implodes, and the other will be trying to hold off a bunch of women to win a bronze medal, with absolutely no hope of doing better unless 1 of 2 skaters has a complete and utter catastrophe.

    Anyway I wasnt just comparing who is better or who has a stronger standing right now, but breaking down their skill sets which arent even to each other. And that Hanyu actually is better in some ways than Chan, he has a much higher base value in the long program, and his GOEs can match and even surpass Chan's; unlike Julia who is better than say Asada at practically nothing (even spins Asada can pretty much match her in).

    "Laughable", "idiot", "delusional"...look, I'm done debating if the tone cannot be kept civil. This is an interesting debate but not when insults are thrown. Kovtun, if he is skating his 4-5quad program, will come close to or beat YH's BV. If Sochi is Russia pushing for new blood, then yes, all the frontrunners will be threatened. If that is the case, YH might win OGM, but you can't expect then Mao to win with her GPF performance at GPF in Japan vs JL, as JL's PCS and GOE will rise significantly, especially for battle of LP.

    If the old rules hold and stature is valued, veterans have an edge over newcomers, then PC, Mao/Yuna, will all keep their frontrunner status.

    I didn't want to believe there are PC haters, but it appears different standards are vehemently applied here to PC that they do not say, for Mao, who has often won despite falling and not bringing her A game. To me, PC and Mao are of equal stature and quality of skating, and both enjoy judges' favoritism, and deservedly so.

  7. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Hanyu`s technical base value is 8 points higher than Chan, unless Chan is planning to make some changes. Despite that he gets huge GOE compared to almost all the rest of the field, a clean Chan would not best a clean Hanyu on GOE, in fact Hanyu might even gain a couple more points there. So unless Chan wins the PCS by close to 10 points or more (and I dont think he would, Japan ice or not) a clean Hanyu would win the LP I believe.

    Could Chan get a few points lead in the short program if both are clean. That might be his only chance to triumph in that scenario, either that or adding more base value to his LP.
    I agree about the comments on tes but Chan is undermarked for pcs overall; he deserves a bigger cushion over at least Hanyu but the tide has changed. Chan has to up his tes at least skate clean and hit all level 4's on his spins and footwork to have a chance.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    I agree about the comments on tes but Chan is undermarked for pcs overall; he deserves a bigger cushion over at least Hanyu but the tide has changed.
    Overmarking is continuing in ridiculous manners. I actually like all marks going down, but if not and if Hanyu get 92 PCS than we can put Chan at 99 constantly.

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    I agree about the comments on tes but Chan is undermarked for pcs overall; he deserves a bigger cushion over at least Hanyu but the tide has changed. Chan has to up his tes at least skate clean and hit all level 4's on his spins and footwork to have a chance.
    Chan is not under marked for PCS and it has actually been suitably marked this season. It's Hanyu's outlying marks at the GPF that are wackier. The difference should be at least 2.5 marks in the SP if both go clean and it should be at least 5 points if both skate a clean free. I'm a fan of both but it's obvious that Chan is a better artistic skater (though Hanyu has improved he should not be getting 92 points with a fall).

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalina View Post
    No, I can't show you. Can you show me the tapes of the japanese referee bribing the other judges so that they overscore Hanyu? Probably not. Can you lend us a time machine, so that we might travel to the future and assure ourselves that what you said will definitely happen? Nope.
    I've already explained what I think is the reason for such a big increase in PCS. That explanation makes sense to me, as I've seen the judging system work during these past years. If it doesn't make sense to you, it's your business. It's not like any of us can bring proof of what we're saying, here. Threads like these only exist for the sake of arguing.
    I agree with this, I think this thread has pretty much run its course in terms of new arguments/thoughts. This thread topic is pretty to begin with, Patrick is definitely still the favourite heading into the Olympics, although Yuzuru has a real chance at the OGM.

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Chan is not under marked for PCS and it has actually been suitably marked this season. It's Hanyu's outlying marks at the GPF that are wackier. The difference should be at least 2.5 marks in the SP if both go clean and it should be at least 5 points if both skate a clean free. I'm a fan of both but it's obvious that Chan is a better artistic skater (though Hanyu has improved he should not be getting 92 points with a fall).
    Are you saying the difference should be 5 points in PCS if both skate clean in the free, or 5 points in total? If its the former then I think that's valid, and the marks at the GPF would support that. If it's the latter, then its pretty questionable. As others have established, Yuzuru has a ~7 point TES base value advantage, and as both skaters should get comparable GOEs, the PCS differential would have to be ~12 points, which I don't see happening.

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    Yep I mean 5 points difference in PCS... so if both skate clean Chan should get 96-97 and Hanyu should get 91-92. Considering Hanyu's BV/GOE, this should still win the FS and earn him the victory overall (assuming clean Hanyu is slightly behind clean Chan outside of Japan after the SP), which is correct if both go clean with maxed out content in the FS. With a fall (and no other major error), Hanyu should be getting no more than 88-89, and Chan with a fall and no other major error should get no more than 93-94.

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalina View Post
    No, I can't show you. Can you show me the tapes of the japanese referee bribing the other judges so that they overscore Hanyu?
    Did anyone make any an allegation of bribing anywhere in this thread? If so, I must have missed it. Care to show me how or where you read "bribes" into this thread?

    Can you lend us a time machine, so that we might travel to the future and assure ourselves that what you said will definitely happen? Nope.
    Again, I am completely lost at what futuristic predictions you think I made? There is a big difference between suggesting that an event will unlikely repeat in the future based on the unique circumstances of a past event and making a prediction. Perhaps you need to take a dictionary and read what's the definition of a prediction to begin with.

    I've already explained what I think is the reason for such a big increase in PCS. That explanation makes sense to me, as I've seen the judging system work during these past years. If it doesn't make sense to you, it's your business. It's not like any of us can bring proof of what we're saying, here. Threads like these only exist for the sake of arguing.
    Here lies the problem. You perceive a conversation here as an argument - a zero sum game. Sorry to tell you that you have it all wrong. I am here to share my perspective and read what others have to say. GS is neither a court nor is anybody on trial here. Your demand for proofs here and there is just plain rude and uncalled for. And even if there is proof, for the sake of argument, I am convinced it wouldn't change the perception of those who are already hell bent in justifying the unjustifiable. Figure Skating has long suffered from this kind of mentality until it all exploded in SLC 2002. While this event is nothing like it, not even close - it doesn't do anyone any favor not to have critical thinking. Instead, these forums tend to fill with irrational and zealous posts making outrageous claims one after the other, which is anything but critical thinking and self reflection. Once again, as far as I know, no one, nor I or anyone else, has made any allegation of bribing however not surprisingly, such false and outrageous accusation was started by someone to totally derail the conversation in a shameful manner. You may want a shouting match, I can tell you however, I am not interested in debating the irrational.

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    Haha, this should be fun - which GOE were so inflated?
    I said GOE was marked in YH's favor at GPF, not "inflated" GOE. I refer you to wallylutz's most excellent post #74 for details.

    TEB vs GPF scores is telling. PCS is much higher but so was GOE. It's not one big obvious gesture, but a little shaved here, a little added there that amounts to a medal color change.

    Machida in his mistakes-plagued SP scored 26 pts for TES, yet his PCS was 40+, that's unrealistic.

    It is expected that home advantage is at work here, like elsewhere,including Canada. however, this doesn't mean PC is now beaten by YH for Sochi, as some are implying.

    I like YH, the skater, but he is not a better skater than PC when the whole package is considered, especially between the jumps. In future, when he has refined his skating and program more, then most certainly he will be a great skater.

    Though he's great at jumps, he hasn't delivered yet a stunning, moving, near perfect program like PC, Yagudin, Plushenko, Lambiel, etc. did, not at this GPF. Of course as he's still at the beginning of his career, it's no surprise. I am looking forward to something heftier, heavier and more complex from YH in future.

  14. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Wow, I just spit out of my coffee reading that one. Chan who has the reputation around the skating World already as the most held up skater in history, with the largest number of hugely controversial wins in history is "undermarked" in anything. That is rich. How on earth could he be undermarked in PCS. The judges are giving him many high 9s and 10s already (even for his bland and forgettable intereptation of Four Seasons which pales in comparision to Lambiel's years back which got mostly mid 7s, what a joke).
    I know you're a "lambiel fan" and all, but calling Chan's interpretation of Four Seasons as bland and forgettable is completely absurd -- especially when you compare it to Lambiel's Four Seasons. Lambiel had nowhere near the speed, depth of edges, variety of transitions, or the quality of elements as Chan (other than spins - and even in Lambiel's '06 Worlds FS many positions weren't held). At the time, yes, Lambiel's Four Seasons was marvellous compared to the other guys (and the footwork was particularly lively and well-interpreted), but its choreography and difficulty isn't even close to what we see now in Chan's program. And of course, as a Chan basher and Lambiel uber, you'll say Lambiel's interpretation was better... perhaps you are referring to his interpretation in that section where he stands for literally 15 seconds?

    Although I suppose Chan's FS outfit "pales in comparison" to that horrendous, garish zebra/tiger print top which is arguably the worst outfit in men's figure skating history (as Kulik breathes a sigh of relief).

  15. #90
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    For the record:

    http://www.nbcolympics.com/news/tara...wards-olympics

    NBCOlympics.com: The surprise of the Grand Prix Final was Japan’s Yuzuru Hanyu’s win over reigning and three-time world champion Patrick Chan.
    Weir: Being no stranger to wild proclamations myself, I found it odd that Patrick said that he "let" Yuzuru win the Grand Prix Final [after the competition]. I found it arrogant in the strongest sense of the word. Yuzuru really shined in Fukuoka and after a slow start to the season in comparison to Chan's early November world records in Paris.
    Lipinski: I think Patrick was probably thinking, "Oh man, this is not good timing," after seeing how Hanyu performed at the Grand Prix Final. After the end of the free skate, I thought, "OK, this guy – Yuzuru Hanyu – really has a really good chance in Sochi." This set Hanyu apart from other contenders: he handled the pressure, stood up to that pressure and stood up to Patrick.
    Weir: This was the last meeting of the two before the Olympics and the fact that Yuzuru was victorious, Chan will hopefully be served a wake-up call of sorts and realize that this isn't a one-man game. I am hopeful that both men will skate flawless programs at Sochi and we'll really see who the man in charge is.

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