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Thread: Who is everyone's guess for ladies podium-can Ashley take bronze?

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  1. #1
    Custom Title skateluvr's Avatar
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    Who is everyone's guess for ladies podium-can Ashley take bronze?

    Yuna
    Julia
    Mao
    Wagner

    Julia could be bronze, mao silver. But I think Ashley can go clean and perform heck out of her not so great LP. I suspect Caro to struggle but if she does remotely well, they may feel she deserves a bronze for trying for years, despite splatting. I have no confidence in lovely caro at Oly.

    It is clear where judges like YuNa, Mao and Julia is new girl who has their hearts in Russia. All big PCS despite any mistakes on jumps..

    YuNa a lock even with a fall Gold
    Mao/Julia fight for si;ver
    Ashley-best possible finish, bronze but not likely.wrong LP this year-Blades did great thread on improving her program. But. Her nerves leave double footing. I sadly see Mills as the best for her programs but he is gone.

    I am hoping I am wrong. I love Ash, and do feel she is a very good skater. I think she is in 4-6 group, field is so deeo.

    Your thoughts /guess now?

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    Custom Title chapis's Avatar
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    I think to 3rd place will be a battle between Ashley, Akiko and Caro. Carolina has more potential than Ashley and Akiko but this season her programs are not really good and she got injured recently, let alone her nerves in big comp . I think Ashley has more probabilities but if Akiko and Ashley are clean in Sochi I think Akiko will take the bronze medal

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    축복, 축도 RABID's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chapis View Post
    I think to 3rd place will be a battle between Ashley, Akiko and Caro. Carolina has more potential than Ashley and Akiko but this season her programs are not really good and she got injured recently, let alone her nerves in big comp . I think Ashley has more probabilities but if Akiko and Ashley are clean in Sochi I think Akiko will take the bronze medal
    If YuNa, Mao, Julia and Carolina are fighting for gold then they are also fighting for both silver and bronze. Everyone else including Ashley are dark horse contenders or pretenders as the saying goes. People can type new words, seek out new or different scenarios but little has changed from last season to rethink the accepted consensus of the top podium contenders except that Julia is also now part of the discussion. Any meaningful discussion about Ashley or any of the other "pretenders" contending for bronze will only occur during the competition when or if some (not one) contenders falter. Let's get real here; I don't know who will win gold but short of injury you can pretty well guarantee that YuNa and Mao will be on the podium. That leaves one spot for everyone else. Ashley has a shot but it is a long shot and in Russia she gets no points for being American.

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    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
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    Yuna & Mao will be on the podium. I don't see Mao finishing off the podium unless she gets injured or has a total meltdown for some reason.

    The 3rd medal? Possibly Julia. But then there's CaroK. I just don't see Ashley beating Julia & CaroK if they skate clean. CaroK really sells her programs, no matter how cheesy they appear. She really buys into the awesomeness of her program, awesomeness of her mad skating skillz, and really really projects to the judges, which helps her immensely.

    If Julia & Caro K both make at least 1 or 2 jump errors significant enough to get some REAL deductions (not like some lame-o 0 or -1 GOE), and if Ashley goes squeaky clean, maybe...maybe Ashley can get a medal. But it's VERY doubtful.

    Not sure if clean Akiko can beat clean Ashley given Ashley's America's #1 lady, while Akiko is...well...nobody as far as her federation's concerned.

    ETA: I think the biggest reason why I don't see Ashley on the podium is that I don't think she's the kind of competitor who can go out and kill her competition. Her comment to the effect of how she's done her job in London b/c she brought home 3 Olympic spots made me think this way since I can't imagine the top girls (Yuna, Mao & CaroK) being happy that they earned 3 spots for the Olympics if they'd finished off the podium. The top ladies wanted nothing less than the gold medal in London, and they most likely want nothing less than OGM in Sochi.

  5. #5
    Tripping on the Podium
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    I've been saying this for 3 years.....I truly believe there will be a North AMerican lady on the podium....to me, that means Ashley, or a surprise amazing skate for a medal by Gracie.

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    There are usually surprises at the Olympics. Pressure often gets to the favorites and things happen off ice.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MarkusNJ View Post
    I've been saying this for 3 years.....I truly believe there will be a North AMerican lady on the podium....to me, that means Ashley, or a surprise amazing skate for a medal by Gracie.
    I think that it will be Yuna, Mao and Julia. I think Julia has skated very well this season, and like most skaters will get a scoring boost because she will be skating on home ice.

    Ashley hasn't skated well enough this season to beat Julia on any ice, especially Russian ice; and has been unable to really connect to her long program. Gracie has been too inconsistent and would need to skate the best skate of her life to be in the running for a medal. Kostner will be dealing with an injury or coming off an injury and has skated poorly this season, like Ashley I don't think she will beat Julia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    If Julia & Caro K both make at least 1 or 2 jump errors significant enough to get some REAL deductions (not like some lame-o 0 or -1 GOE), and if Ashley goes squeaky clean, maybe...maybe Ashley can get a medal. But it's VERY doubtful.
    I disagree with this. Ashley and Adelina get better PCS and better GOE for jumps when clean than Julia, so she will actually have to be cleaner to beat those two.

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    I think the most likely podium right now is:

    Gold- Kim
    Silver- Asada
    Bronze- Lipnitskaia

    With the possible changes being Asada beating Kim out for gold, Lipnitskaia beating Asada out for silver, and someone else beating Lipnitskaia out for bronze. On Russian ice Wagner will need to skate lights out and sensationally to beat the consistent Lipnitskaia, who will no doubt benefit from home ice scoring (eg- if the Grand Prix final were in Russia Julia would have beaten Mao for the title with the performances both gave, and based on the laughable Rostelecom scoring).

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I disagree with this. Ashley and Adelina get better PCS and better GOE for jumps when clean than Julia, so she will actually have to be cleaner to beat those two.
    In Russia dont bet on Ashley getting higher PCS than either Sotnikova or Lipnitskaia, even if that is normally the case. Dont bet on Julia getting small GOE for her jumps either. Remember the SP at the Rostelecom Cup where a clean Kostner with only just under 2 points less in base value was beaten by Julia by 5 points. Julia's GOE on her spins and step, even combined with her small PCS and jump GOE deficit, still made up another several points on Kostner, and Kostner in good form is a better skater than either Ashley or Adelina. I am sure unless Adelina who has already grown in consistency this season, shows another huge jump in her consistency, the Russian fed. will push Julia as their #1 for Sochi, and based on the laughable scoring at the Rostelecom Cup in all disciplines look for some very inflated scores for her at the Games. Especialy if she skates well. Sotnikova will benefit from home ice too, but probably to a lesser degree. Wagner, Suzuki, and the others looking to medal from outside Russia will have earn every mark they get. Wagner will have to skate better than she has all season long if she wants a medal there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I disagree with this. Ashley and Adelina get better PCS and better GOE for jumps when clean than Julia, so she will actually have to be cleaner to beat those two.
    We have elements called spins too. Julia getting very good GOE for them unlike Wagner and Kostner. This is why she got higher TES at the SP than Wagner. Her clean short (no edge deduction, no level3 spin/step) going to get higher TES than Wagner.
    In the free she has advantage too. Ashley losing points for her 3Lo+2A sequence even its clean. 3Lo (5.61) and 2A (3.63) could score higher If they are not in combination. Ashley only got 8.39 with GOE for that combo. (GPF)

  12. #12
    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I disagree with this. Ashley and Adelina get better PCS and better GOE for jumps when clean than Julia, so she will actually have to be cleaner to beat those two.
    I'd agree with you if Sochi were a city in America.

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    I'm going with

    Yuna
    Julia
    Ashley

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    Yuna
    Mao
    Julia

    I wish that it would be:

    Mao - Asia
    Carolina - Europe
    Mirai - America

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    I was not impressed with Ashley's GPF lp...not because of the problems but just the program in general. I still feel like she doesn't bring any passion to her skate and that she doesn't connect with this music. I would love to see Gracie have a fantastic clean program and get on the podium. But I would also love to be young and rich! (sarcasm intended) Not a fan of Carolina's and don't think she'l be a factor. Yuna's skate is going to be interesting because of her lack of competition this year. There is alot of hype about her but not alot of facts to base it on this year. Mao, to me, is the clear favorite. And also don't count out Akiko Suzuki. She could slide in there for the bronze. But it's the Olys and anything can happen (Tara, Sarah, Oksana) Someone could come out of nowhere. I have no opinion on Julia. She could be great or the nerves could get to her.

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