Who is everyone's guess for ladies podium-can Ashley take bronze? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Who is everyone's guess for ladies podium-can Ashley take bronze?

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2006
I don't think Julia will crack. She knows what it's like to skate in front of the home crowd after cup of Russia. I think she will challenge for the gold.

Julia will benefit from more generous PCS and a supportive home crowd. She will also be preparing to peak then and pull out everything she has. Right now I see her placing over Ashley who i honestly don't see on the podium in Russia, even if clean. World's however may be another story.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I think Ashley will have a much better shot at Worlds. Kim, Mao, and Kostner probably all not going (Kostner might I guess), and the Russian girls no longer with home ice advantage.
 

Sochi_2014

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 4, 2013
:points:If everyone skates clean as a whistle in both programs, I think the results will be as follows:
1. Yuna
2. Mao
3. Carolina
4. Ashley
5. Gracie
6. Julia
7. Adelina

However, there is an astronomical chance that every skater will skate cleanly. So, I think the results will be more like this:

1. Mao
2. Yuna
3. Ashley
4. Julia
5. Carolina
6. Adelina
7. Gracie

I have a funny feeling that Yuna will make mistakes, and I think Mao will come ready to capitalize. Ashley will be ready. Her strength these last couple of seasons has been her consistency. She's a real fighter. Also, it seems to me that Carolina is having a hard time pulling herself together for her final season. Who knows how Julia, Gracie, and Adelina will do under the Olympic spotlight. I have a feeling that one of them will skate lights out, and put herself in the top 4. This will be very interesting to see how it all pans out. Wish we had more medals!
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
We will never see it happen anyway but there is no way if everyone skates clean in Sochi that both U.S girls (the top 2) will finish above both Russia girls. At best 1 U.S girl would be allowed to finish above just 1 Russian girl in that case (maybe). It seems alot of you keep forgetting the Olympics will be held in Russia, and have already forgotten the scoring at the COR this year. Carolina will finish 3rd and Julia only 6th or 7th, about 4 places behind her, if everyone skates cleanly, when at COR when both did actually skate cleanly Julia finished 5 points above in the short program? I dont think so.
 

Amei

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
I think Ashley will have a much better shot at Worlds. Kim, Mao, and Kostner probably all not going (Kostner might I guess), and the Russian girls no longer with home ice advantage.

I think Julia would beat Ashley on neutral ice, Ashley's long program leaves a lot to be desired, she doesn't connect to it and her jumps aren't more difficult- we know she won't beat Julia on spins.
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
I think Ashley will have a much better shot at Worlds. Kim, Mao, and Kostner probably all not going (Kostner might I guess), and the Russian girls no longer with home ice advantage.

Mao might go because it's in Japan. Without her presence, it'll be very hard to sell tickets.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I think Julia would beat Ashley on neutral ice, Ashley's long program leaves a lot to be desired, she doesn't connect to it and her jumps aren't more difficult- we know she won't beat Julia on spins.

Oh I agree Julia can beat Ashley outside of Russia for sure, and probably will. Dont get me wrong. However Ashley could atleast think she can beat Julia if she skates great outside of Russia. In Russia she probably wont beat Julia unless she makes unusual mistakes.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Mao might go because it's in Japan. Without her presence, it'll be very hard to sell tickets.

She has said she doesnt plan to and she plans the Olympics to be her last competition. Who knows, the JSF might push her to skate at Worlds but if Miki Ando is the alternate and she gets to skate with Mao's WD, the ticket selling problem will be solved.
 

gourry

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
I like Ashley and it is one of my Olympic wishes that she would be on the podium. But I think it is a tall order.
On the other hand, making on the World podium next year is very much doable for her in my opinion. Maybe it would be the best chance for her to medal between the veterans vacancy and invasion from new Russian ladies.
 

wordsworthgirl

Medalist
Joined
Sep 12, 2013
I honestly think Julia may well crack under the pressure. Moreover, and I'm really serious about this and have heard others speculating on it as well, she has clearly been entering puberty this year and looked more developed at the Grand Prix Final than last summer, so two months could mean changes in her body which could affect her jumps. This is not an issue for any of the other top contenders.

Overall, I completely agree that if everyone skates clean it will be Yu-Na, Mao, and Carolina on the podium. My gut feeling however is that Mao will beat Yu-Na and that the bronze will go to Carolina unless she has a really disastrous performance and/or others like Julia, Adelina, or Ashley skate the performance of their lives. Bronze may well go to one of the Russian ladies- I agree with PangTong Fan that they are at a big home-ice advantage. However, I also agree with those who say that the advantage as far as scoring goes may also mean they are more susceptible to nerves - exhibit a) Patrick Chan in 2010.
 

Franklin99

Medalist
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
She has said she doesnt plan to and she plans the Olympics to be her last competition. Who knows, the JSF might push her to skate at Worlds but if Miki Ando is the alternate and she gets to skate with Mao's WD, the ticket selling problem will be solved.

I heard from a Japanese fan that Mao was definitely going to compete at Worlds, but who knows for sure. I wonder if Yuna doesn't win OGM, will she compete at Worlds?
 

elee63

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 22, 2013
Question:

I've come to just except it as a fact, that skaters from the host nation will be overscored/favored.

But why is that, when the judges aren't all from that country to begin with?
 

elif

Medalist
Joined
Jan 28, 2010
If they aren't together then it takes two separate jumping passes. The 2A in sequence is an upgrade to doing 2T with the 3Lo.

This is why she has disadvantage against 7 triple+2 double axel girls. Her second double axel actually scores less than 2Lo.

I honestly think Julia may well crack under the pressure. Moreover, and I'm really serious about this and have heard others speculating on it as well, she has clearly been entering puberty this year and looked more developed at the Grand Prix Final than last summer, so two months could mean changes in her body which could affect her jumps. This is not an issue for any of the other top contenders.

Overall, I completely agree that if everyone skates clean it will be Yu-Na, Mao, and Carolina on the podium. My gut feeling however is that Mao will beat Yu-Na and that the bronze will go to Carolina unless she has a really disastrous performance and/or others like Julia, Adelina, or Ashley skate the performance of their lives. Bronze may well go to one of the Russian ladies- I agree with PangTong Fan that they are at a big home-ice advantage. However, I also agree with those who say that the advantage as far as scoring goes may also mean they are more susceptible to nerves - exhibit a) Patrick Chan in 2010.

Lipnitskaia and Gold probably going to skate at team events. This can help pressure because they will be olympic medalist already.
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
I heard from a Japanese fan that Mao was definitely going to compete at Worlds, but who knows for sure. I wonder if Yuna doesn't win OGM, will she compete at Worlds?

No. Yuna made it clear London was it for her.
 

npavel

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 3, 2008
Carolina has told that she will be at worlds, YuNa has told Olympics is her last competition
 

Becki

Medalist
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
My dream podium:

Gold - Mao because it has eluded her
Silver - Yuna because she already has the OGM
Bronze - Carolina for her perseverance even when almost everyone has counted her out
4th - Julia because the games are in Russia, so would be nice to have an upcoming star high in the rankings
5th - Akiko because finishing in the top 5 is a great accomplishment and will mark the end to a great career

:D
 

elee63

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 22, 2013
Dream Podium:

Gold: Kim
Silver: Mao
Bronze: Murakami

4th: Suzuki
5th: Lipnitskaia
6th: Kostner
7th: Sotnikova
8th: Wagner
9th: Gold
10th: Li

One can dream...
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
Podium guesses:

Unobtainium - Carolina Kostner
Platinum* - Julia Lipnitskaia
Gold - Mao Asada
Silver - Mirai Nagasu
Bronze - Kaetlyn Osmond

*In Russia, platinum medal is superior to gold medal
 

RABID

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
My dream podium:
Gold: Kim
Silver: Mao
Bronze: Julia
4th: Kostner
5th: Li
6th: Murakami
7th: Adelina
8th: Suzuiki
9th: Osmond
10th: Polina Edmunds ( :) )




My alternative dream podium:

Gold: Mao (clean and magnificent)
Silver: Kim (beautiful but short on points)
Bronze: Kostner ( beautiful but flawed; a fitting "swan song" )

4th: Julia ( "The Future" )
5th: Li ( back with the big girls)
6th: Suzuki ( she gave it her all )
7th: Wagner ( almost... )
8th: Adelina ( I miss YuNa )
9th: Osmond (because I'm Canadian :) )
10th: Gold (she admires Angelina Jolie and that is good enough for me)


My nightmare podium:

Gold: Julia ( blatant inflation )
Silver: Kostner ( inflation and way better at Worlds )
Bronze: Mao ( unsatisfying way to finish a career )

4th: Kim (OMG, she missed the podium!!! The sky is falling!!! )
5th: Adelina (Wth all those falls!? )
6th: Wagner ( A forgettable performance )
7th: Gold ( Americans have stopped watching )
8th: Murakami ( in this competition.....passed over again?! )
9th: Osmond ( judges decide to be kind. Canada wont be )
Li drops back into the pack, sigh
OMG, Suzuki didn't qualify for the FS!!!
 
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