Who is everyone's guess for ladies podium-can Ashley take bronze? | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Who is everyone's guess for ladies podium-can Ashley take bronze?

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Question:

I've come to just except it as a fact, that skaters from the host nation will be overscored/favored.

But why is that, when the judges aren't all from that country to begin with?

I think a large part of that is that the judges are human and they are influenced by the audience reaction. When a skater nails a program in front of a home crowd, the audience applauds wildly and in a way it can make the program seem better than it actually was. Most of the judges don't represent countries who have skaters at the very top so they are genuinely trying to rank the skaters according to which skated the best, so the audience reaction probably plays a role in that. Skaters can sometimes feed off the energy of the crowd too so that can improve their performance, but I do think the audience reaction plays a much bigger role.
 

Sasha'sSpins

Medalist
Joined
Apr 2, 2009
Country
United-States
^^^ $omething el$e may play a role that we may never know about...

Ashley can take the bronze only if Julia Lipnitskaia hands it to her. Julia is relatively consistent, but I could see her potentially cracking under pressure in Russia. It's her first really big competition and she's never been to senior Worlds, so it'll be interesting.

There's been a big reshuffling in the middle ranks of podium contenders since Worlds, and Ashley probably went down a notch.

I agree.

Oh I agree Julia can beat Ashley outside of Russia for sure, and probably will. Dont get me wrong. However Ashley could atleast think she can beat Julia if she skates great outside of Russia. In Russia she probably wont beat Julia unless she makes unusual mistakes.

I agree - and just to point out again that Julia DID beat Ashley outside of Russia already - at the GPF which was held not in Russia, not in the U.S. but Japan - as neutral a country as could be.

No. Yuna made it clear London was it for her.

London? :)

My dream podium will never come true because ties are not allowed. Sigh...

But I'll lay it down for posterity anyhow!

Gold: Mirai

Silver: Yuna

Bronze: Julia/Mao

Yet another dream, closer to reality:

Gold: Julia (I love it when child/women win the Olympics)

Silver: Yuna

Bronze: Mirai :D

Alternate dream:

Gold: Mao/Yuna (tie)

no silver awarded

Bronze: Julia/Adelina
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
My nightmare podium:

Gold: Julia ( blatant inflation )
Silver: Kostner ( inflation and way better at Worlds )
Bronze: Mao ( unsatisfying way to finish a career )

4th: Kim (OMG, she missed the podium!!! The sky is falling!!! )

Fortunately for you, this will not happen. Barring a complete nuclear meltdown, Yuna and Mao will take the top two spots. To put it in perspective, in their last competition Yuna and Mao made visible errors in both their SP and LP. Nonetheless, their total score was higher not only than any other total score by any other skater, but also taking the sum of any skater's personal best SP and LP score among all international competitions.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
I agree - and just to point out again that Julia DID beat Ashley outside of Russia already - at the GPF which was held not in Russia, not in the U.S. but Japan - as neutral a country as could be.


Very true, but to be fair that was a case where Ashley handed that one over to Julia. Ashley forked over at least 7 points in TES alone... Judging by the SP scores and the PCS in the FS, if Ashley hadn't made as many mistakes as she did (quite a few considering Julia was nearly clean), she'd have beaten Julia at the GPF.

In Russia, however, I think Ashley will have a much much tougher time beating Julia.
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013

London, Canada -- she made it clear that 2013 was her last World Championships.

Yuna's last hurrah will be Sochi Olympics, whether she scores 300 and wins by over 100 points and the audience starts floating in the air, or whether she misses the podium. Probably she scores 210+ and wins gold, but who knows, you can never take anything for granted in life. Whatever happens it will be her final competition, so we should enjoy the last opportunities to see her compete.
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
In Russia, however, I think Ashley will have a much much tougher time beating Julia.

Yuna, Mao, and one of the Russian girls, in some order, most probably that one. Unless all the Russian girls bomb, the judges will find a way to get one of them at least the bronze, that's just how these things work.
 

Sasha'sSpins

Medalist
Joined
Apr 2, 2009
Country
United-States
London, Canada -- she made it clear that 2013 was her last World Championships.

Yuna's last hurrah will be Sochi Olympics, whether she scores 300 and wins by over 100 points and the audience starts floating in the air, or whether she misses the podium. Probably she scores 210+ and wins gold, but who knows, you can never take anything for granted in life. Whatever happens it will be her final competition, so we should enjoy the last opportunities to see her compete.

Oh - I thought we were talking about the future and that the London (England) Olympics got mixed up with Sochi! :laugh:
 

Gigi13

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 2, 2013
I think Julia might take bronze unless the pressure gets to her because this is her first big competition, she didn't even go to worlds and this a huge thing for her so...However Ashley can challenge Julia but it's going to be tough because it's in Russia.
My dream podium
1.Mao
2.Yuna
3.Kostner
4.Suzuki
5.Julia
6.Li
7.Nagasu
8.Wagner
9.Osmond
10.Gold
 

RABID

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
Oh - I thought we were talking about the future and that the London (England) Olympics got mixed up with Sochi! :laugh:

If you were from France you wouldn't have mixed the two cities up; in France London, England is Londres where as London, Ontario is still London. :)
 

sporkwhatspork

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 10, 2010
Yuna's last hurrah will be Sochi Olympics, whether she scores 300 and wins by over 100 points and the audience starts floating in the air, or whether she misses the podium.
I think it's assumed that Sochi will be her last hurrah because it's understandably presumed that she will at least get on the podium, whether it's a gold or silver or even a bronze (heaven forbid the last one though lol). But honestly, if hell freezes over and Yuna misses the podium for the first time ever, I see the South Korean federation heavily leaning on her to continue on to 2014 World's to "redeem" herself. Who knows if she'll listen, but I don't think it'll necessarily be as certain that she's quitting for good, regardless of what she's said, if she misses the podium entirely.

I wish both Yuna and Mao could tie for the gold. They're both worthy in my eyes, and I want them both to be happy!

Bronze... I don't care that much. LOL. I've never been that crazy about Ashley Wagner's skating, but her interviews have made me really like her, so I hope she does well, but I won't be heartbroken if she doesn't make the podium, the way I would be if Mao or Yuna messed up.
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
I don't think anything on earth could make Yuna skate at 2014 Worlds, after her 2010 experience.

Unless she changes her mind in some years and decides to skate at Pyeongchang 2018, which is very unlikely, then Sochi in 2 months will be the last time we see her skate a competitive program.
 

sporkwhatspork

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 10, 2010
I don't think anything on earth could make Yuna skate at 2014 Worlds, after her 2010 experience.
Yeah, but I thought that the 2010 experience was that way because Yuna had won gold and at that point she had nothing to prove anymore. I think when she talked about how empty she felt, it was because, well, she'd just won the most major award for her sport, so...now what?

If on the other hand she lands off the podium in Sochi, she might feel like she does have something left to prove.

ETA: Of course this is all just speculation on my part!
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Yuna, Mao, and one of the Russian girls, in some order, most probably that one. Unless all the Russian girls bomb, the judges will find a way to get one of them at least the bronze, that's just how these things work.

I don't think the judges will have to try to find a way to get Julia or (presumably) Adelina on the podium. Both are capable of beating any of the bronze hopefuls.
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
she might feel like she does have something left to prove.

I don't think she feels like she has anything left to prove, no matter what happens in Sochi. She's already won World Championships and Olympic Gold Medal and anything else she could ever win at figure skating. Instead, she's talked about "finishing her career". She seems to have a maturity and sense for the moment that most people don't have. Compare her to the other girls she will compete against, some old, some young ... they're still chasing their dreams. Yuna's already achieved hers, her programs this year are not just competitive programs, they are goodbyes.

Even if she doesn't do her best at Sochi, I get the feeling like she would be disappointed with that one event, but not disappointed with her career. Sometimes when people say their last goodbyes, they stumble on the way out the door. You can't go back and do it over again, so you just have to shake your head and laugh at yourself, but move on in life.

That said, I have faith Yuna will do her best at Sochi and achieve results she will be happy with. When everything comes together and it's the right time in life, things have a way of working out.
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
I don't think the judges will have to try to find a way to get Julia or (presumably) Adelina on the podium. Both are capable of beating any of the bronze hopefuls.

Yes, you're absolutely right, they may not need a boost. However, suppose another skater gives a tremendous performance that could be considered even better than a good Julia or other Russian girl. As long as one of the leading Russian girls skates well, does anyone think they would be kept from at least Bronze? The Olympics are in Russia this year, so I'm just saying they are guaranteed a medal unless all their girls just totally go splat.
 

skateluvr

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
Everyone knows Yuna wins gold by 20 points over Mao. Its a given-300 would not surprise me. But it is realyl, before you hijacked yet another thread-so cheeky aren't you? About Ashley's actual chances for Bronze. I see them giving it to a 15 year old Russian girl-their best lady. Sadly, Ashley does not have her best programs this year.

I have no doubt she would podium if she returned to her programs last two years, and if she is clean or almost clean. Those were very strong programs by Mills. I did read with interest Blades thread to redo her LP. Sadly, it seems this board has given up on Ashley's dream. I guess we don't have many US fans anymore is my guess.

I think she is a longshot due to politics and Julia's music-I see bronze slipping away from Ashley. I hope I am wrong. She and Akiko are two skaters who fight for everything.
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
I answered another poster's question, to which they seemed to be thankful. I then answered the question posed by the thread title, saying the podium will almost certainly include Yuna, Mao, and one of the Russian girls, probably in that order.

How is that "hijacking yet another thread"?

Maybe you need an emotional timeout? I hope whatever problems you are having at this time sort themselves out, skateluvr. Every time someone posts "Yuna" it must be like nails on a chalkboard to you. I feel like it physically pains your soul to hear her name spoken out loud. Will you even be able to watch the Olympics? :laugh:
 
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