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Thread: Who is everyone's guess for ladies podium-can Ashley take bronze?

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I disagree with this. Ashley and Adelina get better PCS and better GOE for jumps when clean than Julia, so she will actually have to be cleaner to beat those two.
    We have elements called spins too. Julia getting very good GOE for them unlike Wagner and Kostner. This is why she got higher TES at the SP than Wagner. Her clean short (no edge deduction, no level3 spin/step) going to get higher TES than Wagner.
    In the free she has advantage too. Ashley losing points for her 3Lo+2A sequence even its clean. 3Lo (5.61) and 2A (3.63) could score higher If they are not in combination. Ashley only got 8.39 with GOE for that combo. (GPF)

  2. #17
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by elif View Post
    Ashley losing points for her 3Lo+2A sequence even its clean. 3Lo (5.61) and 2A (3.63) could score higher If they are not in combination. Ashley only got 8.39 with GOE for that combo.
    If they aren't together then it takes two separate jumping passes. The 2A in sequence is an upgrade to doing 2T with the 3Lo.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by elif View Post
    We have elements called spins too. Julia getting very good GOE for them unlike Wagner and Kostner. This is why she got higher TES at the SP than Wagner. Her clean short (no edge deduction, no level3 spin/step) going to get higher TES than Wagner.
    In the free she has advantage too. Ashley losing points for her 3Lo+2A sequence even its clean. 3Lo (5.61) and 2A (3.63) could score higher If they are not in combination. Ashley only got 8.39 with GOE for that combo. (GPF)
    Not to mention a good competition for Julia is one with no mistakes. A good competition for Wagner and Sotnikova is one with 2 mistakes. When Julia has a competition with 2 mistakes she is peeved. It is easier for Julia to do a competition with 0 mistakes than it is for Sotnikova anyway to do one with only 2 over the 2 programs which is a huge victory for her (and means she likely did one of the two programs clean, already a rare feat for her thus far). So Julia just doing what she typically does would expect to beat Wagner or Sotniova doing one of their better competitions, regardless whether they would beat her clean or not.

    Jump GOE is not a real strength for Wagner anyway though. I dont see any big advantage she gets on Julia there. Sotnikova has an advantage there on both when she does her jumps cleanly.

    I know I have mentioned this before but it still bears repeating, that Wagner vs Russian #1 Lipnitskaia in Russia is nothing like Wagner vs Lipnitskaia elsewhere. The Grand Prix final already shows Wagner has to skate pretty much perfectly to beat Lipnitskaia right now on foreign ice (which she failed to do and lost decisively despite not skating badly per say), but on Russian ice it will be even more to ask for her to do to beat her. Anyone who talks about the Olympics in Russia as if it were some other event in say Bulgaria are delusional, and that goes for all the disciplines with a Russian contender, not just ladies.

  4. #19
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Ashley can take the bronze only if Julia Lipnitskaia hands it to her. Julia is relatively consistent, but I could see her potentially cracking under pressure in Russia. It's her first really big competition and she's never been to senior Worlds, so it'll be interesting.

    There's been a big reshuffling in the middle ranks of podium contenders since Worlds, and Ashley probably went down a notch.

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    I don't think Julia will crack. She knows what it's like to skate in front of the home crowd after cup of Russia. I think she will challenge for the gold.

  6. #21
    Beliver in Sasha's Perfect Program Tinymavy15's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flying camel View Post
    I don't think Julia will crack. She knows what it's like to skate in front of the home crowd after cup of Russia. I think she will challenge for the gold.
    Julia will benefit from more generous PCS and a supportive home crowd. She will also be preparing to peak then and pull out everything she has. Right now I see her placing over Ashley who i honestly don't see on the podium in Russia, even if clean. World's however may be another story.

  7. #22
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    I think Ashley will have a much better shot at Worlds. Kim, Mao, and Kostner probably all not going (Kostner might I guess), and the Russian girls no longer with home ice advantage.

  8. #23
    Custom Title Sochi_2014's Avatar
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    If everyone skates clean as a whistle in both programs, I think the results will be as follows:
    1. Yuna
    2. Mao
    3. Carolina
    4. Ashley
    5. Gracie
    6. Julia
    7. Adelina

    However, there is an astronomical chance that every skater will skate cleanly. So, I think the results will be more like this:

    1. Mao
    2. Yuna
    3. Ashley
    4. Julia
    5. Carolina
    6. Adelina
    7. Gracie

    I have a funny feeling that Yuna will make mistakes, and I think Mao will come ready to capitalize. Ashley will be ready. Her strength these last couple of seasons has been her consistency. She's a real fighter. Also, it seems to me that Carolina is having a hard time pulling herself together for her final season. Who knows how Julia, Gracie, and Adelina will do under the Olympic spotlight. I have a feeling that one of them will skate lights out, and put herself in the top 4. This will be very interesting to see how it all pans out. Wish we had more medals!

  9. #24
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    We will never see it happen anyway but there is no way if everyone skates clean in Sochi that both U.S girls (the top 2) will finish above both Russia girls. At best 1 U.S girl would be allowed to finish above just 1 Russian girl in that case (maybe). It seems alot of you keep forgetting the Olympics will be held in Russia, and have already forgotten the scoring at the COR this year. Carolina will finish 3rd and Julia only 6th or 7th, about 4 places behind her, if everyone skates cleanly, when at COR when both did actually skate cleanly Julia finished 5 points above in the short program? I dont think so.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I think Ashley will have a much better shot at Worlds. Kim, Mao, and Kostner probably all not going (Kostner might I guess), and the Russian girls no longer with home ice advantage.
    I think Julia would beat Ashley on neutral ice, Ashley's long program leaves a lot to be desired, she doesn't connect to it and her jumps aren't more difficult- we know she won't beat Julia on spins.

  11. #26
    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I disagree with this. Ashley and Adelina get better PCS and better GOE for jumps when clean than Julia, so she will actually have to be cleaner to beat those two.
    I'd agree with you if Sochi were a city in America.

  12. #27
    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I think Ashley will have a much better shot at Worlds. Kim, Mao, and Kostner probably all not going (Kostner might I guess), and the Russian girls no longer with home ice advantage.
    Mao might go because it's in Japan. Without her presence, it'll be very hard to sell tickets.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amei View Post
    I think Julia would beat Ashley on neutral ice, Ashley's long program leaves a lot to be desired, she doesn't connect to it and her jumps aren't more difficult- we know she won't beat Julia on spins.
    Oh I agree Julia can beat Ashley outside of Russia for sure, and probably will. Dont get me wrong. However Ashley could atleast think she can beat Julia if she skates great outside of Russia. In Russia she probably wont beat Julia unless she makes unusual mistakes.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    Mao might go because it's in Japan. Without her presence, it'll be very hard to sell tickets.
    She has said she doesnt plan to and she plans the Olympics to be her last competition. Who knows, the JSF might push her to skate at Worlds but if Miki Ando is the alternate and she gets to skate with Mao's WD, the ticket selling problem will be solved.

  15. #30
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    I like Ashley and it is one of my Olympic wishes that she would be on the podium. But I think it is a tall order.
    On the other hand, making on the World podium next year is very much doable for her in my opinion. Maybe it would be the best chance for her to medal between the veterans vacancy and invasion from new Russian ladies.

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