I honestly think Julia may well crack under the pressure. Moreover, and I'm really serious about this and have heard others speculating on it as well, she has clearly been entering puberty this year and looked more developed at the Grand Prix Final than last summer, so two months could mean changes in her body which could affect her jumps. This is not an issue for any of the other top contenders.
Overall, I completely agree that if everyone skates clean it will be Yu-Na, Mao, and Carolina on the podium. My gut feeling however is that Mao will beat Yu-Na and that the bronze will go to Carolina unless she has a really disastrous performance and/or others like Julia, Adelina, or Ashley skate the performance of their lives. Bronze may well go to one of the Russian ladies- I agree with PangTong Fan that they are at a big home-ice advantage. However, I also agree with those who say that the advantage as far as scoring goes may also mean they are more susceptible to nerves - exhibit a) Patrick Chan in 2010.
I heard from a Japanese fan that Mao was definitely going to compete at Worlds, but who knows for sure. I wonder if Yuna doesn't win OGM, will she compete at Worlds?
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
I've come to just except it as a fact, that skaters from the host nation will be overscored/favored.
But why is that, when the judges aren't all from that country to begin with?
This is why she has disadvantage against 7 triple+2 double axel girls. Her second double axel actually scores less than 2Lo.
Originally Posted by Blades of Passion
Lipnitskaia and Gold probably going to skate at team events. This can help pressure because they will be olympic medalist already.
Originally Posted by wordsworthgirl
No. Yuna made it clear London was it for her.
Originally Posted by Franklin99
Carolina has told that she will be at worlds, YuNa has told Olympics is her last competition
My dream podium:
Gold - Mao because it has eluded her
Silver - Yuna because she already has the OGM
Bronze - Carolina for her perseverance even when almost everyone has counted her out
4th - Julia because the games are in Russia, so would be nice to have an upcoming star high in the rankings
5th - Akiko because finishing in the top 5 is a great accomplishment and will mark the end to a great career
One can dream...
Six Point Zero
Unobtainium - Carolina Kostner
Platinum* - Julia Lipnitskaia
Gold - Mao Asada
Silver - Mirai Nagasu
Bronze - Kaetlyn Osmond
*In Russia, platinum medal is superior to gold medal
My dream podium:
10th: Polina Edmunds ( )
My alternative dream podium:
Gold: Mao (clean and magnificent)
Silver: Kim (beautiful but short on points)
Bronze: Kostner ( beautiful but flawed; a fitting "swan song" )
4th: Julia ( "The Future" )
5th: Li ( back with the big girls)
6th: Suzuki ( she gave it her all )
7th: Wagner ( almost... )
8th: Adelina ( I miss YuNa )
9th: Osmond (because I'm Canadian )
10th: Gold (she admires Angelina Jolie and that is good enough for me)
My nightmare podium:
Gold: Julia ( blatant inflation )
Silver: Kostner ( inflation and way better at Worlds )
Bronze: Mao ( unsatisfying way to finish a career )
4th: Kim (OMG, she missed the podium!!! The sky is falling!!! )
5th: Adelina (Wth all those falls!? )
6th: Wagner ( A forgettable performance )
7th: Gold ( Americans have stopped watching )
8th: Murakami ( in this competition.....passed over again?! )
9th: Osmond ( judges decide to be kind. Canada wont be )
Li drops back into the pack, sigh
OMG, Suzuki didn't qualify for the FS!!!
I think a large part of that is that the judges are human and they are influenced by the audience reaction. When a skater nails a program in front of a home crowd, the audience applauds wildly and in a way it can make the program seem better than it actually was. Most of the judges don't represent countries who have skaters at the very top so they are genuinely trying to rank the skaters according to which skated the best, so the audience reaction probably plays a role in that. Skaters can sometimes feed off the energy of the crowd too so that can improve their performance, but I do think the audience reaction plays a much bigger role.
Originally Posted by elee63
I think Adelina S. has as good a chance as anyone.
^^^ $omething el$e may play a role that we may never know about...
Originally Posted by Krislite
I agree - and just to point out again that Julia DID beat Ashley outside of Russia already - at the GPF which was held not in Russia, not in the U.S. but Japan - as neutral a country as could be.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
Originally Posted by Nadia01
My dream podium will never come true because ties are not allowed. Sigh...
But I'll lay it down for posterity anyhow!
Yet another dream, closer to reality:
Gold: Julia (I love it when child/women win the Olympics)
Bronze: Mirai :D
Gold: Mao/Yuna (tie)
no silver awarded
Fortunately for you, this will not happen. Barring a complete nuclear meltdown, Yuna and Mao will take the top two spots. To put it in perspective, in their last competition Yuna and Mao made visible errors in both their SP and LP. Nonetheless, their total score was higher not only than any other total score by any other skater, but also taking the sum of any skater's personal best SP and LP score among all international competitions.
Originally Posted by RABID
Rejoicing in the land of Kwan
Originally Posted by Sasha'sSpins
Very true, but to be fair that was a case where Ashley handed that one over to Julia. Ashley forked over at least 7 points in TES alone... Judging by the SP scores and the PCS in the FS, if Ashley hadn't made as many mistakes as she did (quite a few considering Julia was nearly clean), she'd have beaten Julia at the GPF.
In Russia, however, I think Ashley will have a much much tougher time beating Julia.