Carolina, Julia, Ashley, Gracie, Akiko, or Adelina - Who will win the bronze medal ?
Carolina - Injured, bad dresses, and Lori Nichols was probably drunk when she choreographed her programs.
Julia - Home score advantage, she draws a heart on the ice, positive GOE on her spins.
Ashley - Underrotated/two-footed triple-triple, super long/boring slow section, is not portraying "bedroom juliet" very well.
Gracie - sp was a hot mess, did not make the gpf, helicopter arms.
Akiko - high quality programs but doesn't seem to have consistency with her jumps.
Adelina - bombed her long program at the gpf, thinks it's appropriate to wear lingerie in front of the judges.
Which of these ladies will join Yuna and Mao on the podium?
More or less: more is more
Who knows? Here's my current ranking with (scoring potential/consistency) on a scale from 0 to 10
1. Julia Lipnitskaia (8/9)
2. Ashley Wagner (7/8)
3. Carolina Kostner (9/5)
4. Gracie Gold (8/5)
5. Akiko Suzuki (7/6)
6. Adelina Sotnikova (9/4)
That's how you get ants
I still believe in Carolina Kostner and Akiko Suzuki, they have experience, worlds medals (are they likely to be the only other world medalists in Sochi along with Mao and Yu-na?) and performance style. Italy is unlikely to win any other medals in other disciplines so perhaps they'll think it's nice to spread the wealth. The Russian ladies might just be a little green for Olympic medals this time around. Julia is obviously well ahead of Adelina but she only just beat Carolina in Moscow and Carolina is often a late bloomer in the season. Euros will be telling, I suppose.
As time fades, a legend grows...
Uhmm, how do these numbers work? The way I read it out of all the ladies listed only Adelina's chances are worse than Carolina's or conversely out of all the ladies listed only Julia's chances are worse than Ashley's. Is that what you believe about one or the other of these scenarios or am I reading this wrong?
Originally Posted by sequinsgalore
They did like two scores out of ten:the first for scoring potential, second for consistency. So Julia has a 8 in scoring potential and 9 in consistency (both out of 10). Adelina has a 9 in scoring potential but just 4/10 for consistency.
Originally Posted by RABID
Rejoicing in the land of Kwan
At the beginning of the season we were all sure it'd be Yu-Na, Mao and Carolina on the podium...how quickly things can change.
Let's see. I think Carolina's chances are still very high, especially if she returns to Bolero. However, I'm not sure what shape she's in technically which is what will hold her back if she doesn't make it onto the podium. If she's clean or close to clean, I think she'll get the nod over everyone else.
Julia has the most momentum going right now and, judging by her inflated scores at COR, she will likely receive a PCS boost that will make her competitive with the top names. Unless she gets spooked (a la the FS at COR) I think Julia's chances are really good at a 3rd or 4th place finish in Sochi.
Adelina's inconsistency is her issue. She can beat Julia if she's clean and probably with less content b/c Adelina receives good GOE on her jumps as well as her spins, plus when she's clean her PCS jump, she'll be skating on home ice and she's been the flagship for the Russian ladies the last few years. Sadly, Adelina doesn't deliver enough to make her a big threat in this conversation...but if by chance she does have a skate-of-your-life moment in Sochi, I think she'd land on the podium.
Ashley has the increased content and is capable of skating cleanly or mostly clean. I do think she's a threat for the top 5 if she skates well...but the truth is everyone on this list can beat her if they skate better than her which means Ashley has to skate perfectly. She doesn't have much room at all for error and she'll need others to make mistakes in order to land on the podium.
Akiko has the PCS advantage over everyone except Carolina, but her lack of technical content may hold her back even if she skates well...
Of everyone here, Gracie earns the lowest PCS. In regular international competition she is right on par with Julia, but with Julia skating in Russia it's likely her PCS will receive a nice boost especially if she's clean. Gracie is on the low end in terms of PCS but she has the most scoring potential in terms of TES. She has the goods to finish on the podium but, based on her GP showings, I don't see her as a medal threat right now but she could be if she skates lights out. Still, if everyone skated perfectly I think Gracie would be 4th or 5th in this group of competitors, behind Carolina, Adelina, Julia and possibly Ashley (PCS).
But Julia only just beat Carolina in Moscow with a very flawed LP. Imagine how a Julia that hits it out of the park (especially both nights) will score. I think the fact that Carolina did not win any of her GPs says a lot - the judges are ready imo to drop her to 4th or lower and let Julia take bronze.
Originally Posted by MalloryArcher
On the Ice
All of these girls could potentially medal, depending on who skates well, and who doesn't. If one skates badly, she could help another get to the podium. For instnace, if Julia flubs, she leaves the door open for the other girls to move up.
Julia has a great chance to medal, but who knows if she will be able to handle the pressure in front of the home crowd this time around.
Ashley is very calm and collected, and also has a very good chance for bronze. However, she will need to be almost flawless in both programs.
Carolina - I just don't see it happening for her.
Gracie could skate clean and blow all these other ladies out of the water. The high jumps, the fast spins, and the speed of her skating could catapult her up. However, the chances of this happening are small.
Akiko- her LP is my favorite of all the ladies this year. Phantom of the Opera was a great choice for her. I would be thrilled to see her on the podium, if everything goes smoothly for her. But boy did she fall apart at NHK. She's so light on her feet and beautiful. I always feel badly that she is "the other Japanese lady" in the shadows of Mao.
Adelina- Same comments as Gracie. If all goes as planned, then she will be difficult to beat. However, the chances of this are slim.
I don't think the judges will be giving out medals to "spread the wealth". At least I hope not. I don't think that will be part of their criteria when they are contemplating their marks.
Originally Posted by MalloryArcher