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Thread: Carolina, Julia, Ashley, Gracie, Akiko, or Adelina - Who will win the bronze medal ?

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sochi_2014 View Post
    Does Russia just have two spots for the ladies at Europeans too? And if so, are they going to send the two that make the Olympic team?
    I believe they have 3 at least? This will surely include the ones who will be ultimately on the Olympic team (although Julia could probably afford to skip Euros if she wins Russians, not that there is any good reason for her to since she will be a heavy favourite). The Olympic team will be set for sure after Euros.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I believe they have 3 at least? This will surely include the ones who will be ultimately on the Olympic team (although Julia could probably afford to skip Euros if she wins Russians, not that there is any good reason for her to since she will be a heavy favourite). The Olympic team will be set for sure after Euros.
    I disagree, I don't think Julia can afford to skip Euros if she wins Russians. She needs that on her resume. As flukish as Sarah Hughes's OGM was, she did have a world bronze medal. I don't think Russian support is enough to overcome Julia's lack of senior international wins by itself. If Julia wins Euros, that will do a lot for her reputation.

  3. #33
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    I don't think Gracie or really Adelina are in the hunt for bronze, not even Akiko so much. Being in Russia could maybe help Adelina but I just don't see it happening for her this season. Julia, Caro, and Ashley are the 3 really in the hunt, I'd be surprised if bronze didn't go to one of those 3.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    I don't think Gracie or really Adelina are in the hunt for bronze, not even Akiko so much. Being in Russia could maybe help Adelina but I just don't see it happening for her this season. Julia, Caro, and Ashley are the 3 really in the hunt, I'd be surprised if bronze didn't go to one of those 3.

    I agree about Gracie but I don't see why skaters like Akiko or Sotnikova wouldn't be able to compete for a Bronze Medal at Sochi when they staking well.
    And people here a acting like it is already a foregone conclusion that Kim and Mao will win Gold and Silver, which it is IMO clearly not especially if the judges finally will detect Mao's obvious underrotations.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by David21 View Post
    I agree about Gracie but I don't see why skaters like Akiko or Sotnikova wouldn't be able to compete for a Bronze Medal at Sochi when they staking well.
    And people here a acting like it is already a foregone conclusion that Kim and Mao will win Gold and Silver, which it is IMO clearly not especially if the judges finally will detect Mao's obvious underrotations.
    Mao hasn't skated brilliantly at any of her internationals thus far this season and she's still won all of them handily. I think she may even win gold in Sochi as Kim appears to be a bit rusty ATM. Mao's PCS and GOE will keep her on the medal stand, and very likely in first or 2nd place, even if she does get hit with a few URs.

    Further, Adelina has gone head-to-head with Ashley twice this season and lost to Ashley both times, including at TEB where she had a perfect FS. A perfect FS from Adelina only scored 2 points more than a not so great FS from Ashley, and with her track record and questionable jump technique, I just don't see Adelina putting 2 clean programs together at the Olympics where I think Ashley feasibly could as she usually skates clean or nearly clean. In other words, one clean program from Adelina isn't likely to be enough to get her on the medal stand, and the last time we saw Adelina deliver 2 clean programs in the same competition was like 3 years ago, before puberty, pressure, and the rise of her competition at home all took their toll.

    Akiko was gaining momentum the past couple of seasons but after what happened at Worlds, losing to Radionova at NHK (who did not manage to beat Wagner at GPF despite skating almost perfectly while Ashley was far from her best), and not making the GPF, I think her stock has gone down a bit and she will be marked fairly conservatively at the Olympics because of it. With 2 brilliant skates she could sneak away with a medal, but like Adelina, she rarely puts 2 super solid programs together so I think it might not happen.

    Kostner was my pick for bronze at the start of the season but her injuries and not so great programs have opened up the field a bit now. She withdrew from Nationals, didn't make the GPF, and was beaten by 15 year olds Pogorilaya and Lipnitskaya (with a meltdown in the FS) on the GP, so really, she is a question mark right now.

    Lots of ladies could theoretically challenge for the bronze, but at this point, I think Julia and Ashley are by far the top 2 contenders for that last medal.

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    I think that Mirai Nagasu have a great chance to win the bronze medal in Sochi.

  7. #37
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I have a feeling if Mao and Kim both skate equally okish the judges will go with Kim, even with Maos harder program.
    ISU doesn't like how Yu-Na has skimped out on events the past quad. Mao has shown up for everything, despite trying to rework technique and her mom dying. Plus, Japan needs a big win to keep ice skating fans buying tickets and she is their best hope.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    ISU doesn't like how Yu-Na has skimped out on events the past quad. Mao has shown up for everything, despite trying to rework technique and her mom dying. Plus, Japan needs a big win to keep ice skating fans buying tickets and she is their best hope.
    But they gave her huge scores at WC last year, they always do. It does not seem to have hurt her much-being absent.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    ISU doesn't like how Yu-Na has skimped out on events the past quad. Mao has shown up for everything, despite trying to rework technique and her mom dying. Plus, Japan needs a big win to keep ice skating fans buying tickets and she is their best hope.
    But didn't Yuna win last year? Even with that edge call on her flip in short, she still managed to beat everyone w/ short (and she even skated very early...)

    TBH I'm not certain that Mao can go squeaky clean in Sochi. I think Yuna is capable of doing it (she's done it twice at big comps now) and still do the planned layout (no doubling triples to not fall, etc.).

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    But didn't Yuna win last year? Even with that edge call on her flip in short, she still managed to beat everyone w/ short (and she even skated very early...)

    TBH I'm not certain that Mao can go squeaky clean in Sochi. I think Yuna is capable of doing it (she's done it twice at big comps now) and still do the planned layout (no doubling triples to not fall, etc.).
    If they skate more or less like last season's Worlds Yuna will of course win by a landslide. She won because she was indisputably the best at that event. I suspect Blades might be thinking more of a scenario like 2011 Worlds, where Miki and Yuna were very closely scored as Yuna made some mistakes. Yuna skipped all but Worlds that season. The judges gave the title to Miki.

    She did participate at Worlds last season, before Sochi, so I don't know how much the ISU might still begrudge her for missing out recently. The fact that they have a returning ladies Olympic champion at all is quite rare (hasn't happened since Witt), so I hope at least some of the judges keep it in perspective. But I do think she can afford fewer mistakes this time around compared to Vancouver. She's probably well aware of that.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Mao hasnt won a really big event since 2010
    Uh, she won the GPF the past 2 years. Other than Worlds there have been no bigger events since 2010 (unless you want to count 4CC, which she won last year).

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    If they skate more or less like last season's Worlds Yuna will of course win by a landslide. She won because she was indisputably the best at that event. I suspect Blades might be thinking more of a scenario like 2011 Worlds, where Miki and Yuna were very closely scored as Yuna made some mistakes. Yuna skipped all but Worlds that season. The judges gave the title to Miki.
    Miki scored well because she put her in contention by winning all but one competition she entered that season. As a result, her scores build up through the events and by the time she got to Worlds she was marked like a major contender. Mao is doing the same thing this year, so it will be very interesting to see how the two are compared if both skate well in Sochi.

  13. #43
    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Uh, she won the GPF the past 2 years. Other than Worlds there have been no bigger events since 2010 (unless you want to count 4CC, which she won last year).
    Didn't you sort of answer pangtongfan's question?

    Besides the last 2 GPF has been sort of anemic.

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    Neither Yu-Na nor Mao have the ideal resume this quad for an OGM favorite. Yu-Na has two worlds medals, with one being the key penultimate world title, but only senior B international wins otherwise. Mao has 4CCs and two GPF wins, but only one World bronze medal, which, regardless of the reasons why, is rather shocking given that she came into this quad as the reigning OSM, reigning world champion, had every rule change in her favor, and was completely expected to dominate. Carolina Kostner arguably has a better resume than both, as she has the most world medals and a world title, Euros, GPF, GPs, etc, but her technical skills have not stayed competitive and she has the weakest programs of this quad this season.

    If they both skate perfectly, I'd expect Mao to come out on top given her advantage in base value, but that's a very tall order. If they both make mistakes, the result depends on what kind of mistakes. Neither can afford to miss one of their money jumps--3A for Mao, 3Lz/3T for Yu-Na. Mao can maybe afford 1 UR and a slight landing error (i.e. two-footed) out of her 3 3As, but she can't really afford to pop them or fall on them. If all else is well, Mao can afford a mistake on the 2A/3T or the 3S and she'd be fine. If Yu-Na executes all else perfectly, she could afford maybe one mistake, say, doubling the salchow as she did in 2009 Worlds where everything else was perfect.

    As for the bronze medal, I think there are two tiers of bronze medal contenders, with the upper tier being Carolina, Ashley, and Julia, and the lower tier being Akiko and Adelina. I can't consider Gracie as a bronze medal contender with the season she's had.

    Quote Originally Posted by skateluvr View Post
    But they gave her huge scores at WC last year, they always do. It does not seem to have hurt her much-being absent.
    They gave her a huge score in the LP at WC last year, because she skated perfectly. Not because they always do. They didn't in the SP.

    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Miki scored well because she put her in contention by winning all but one competition she entered that season. As a result, her scores build up through the events and by the time she got to Worlds she was marked like a major contender. Mao is doing the same thing this year, so it will be very interesting to see how the two are compared if both skate well in Sochi.
    Yeah, Miki's scores built up even though her performance at Worlds wasn't very good and her programs were terrible. Politics in action.

    Mao is obviously in a good position momentum wise this time around, much better than in 2009-2010, but she still has to deliver at the Olympics. Her comfortable win at 4CCs last season set her up perfectly to deliver at Worlds, but she didn't.

    If you're a favorite and you don't deliver at the Olympics, then you don't win. See Michelle Kwan, Irina Slutskaya, Sasha Cohen.

  15. #45
    Custom Title Sasha'sSpins's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    Oh, I gotta disagree with that.

    Comparing Julia's marks across her 3 events this season is all the proof needed when it comes to backing up the assertion that her victory over Carolina was debatable, to put it nicely...personally, I thought it was blatant propping/cheating. Carolina was horrible in China but she was better in Russia. Had Julia's PCS been fair or even moderately fair, Carolina would have won gold at COR.

    Don't forget the GP season doesn't dictate what will happen at the Olympics. Hardly any of the top finishers in Vancouver had strong GP seasons that year but managed to turn it around and deliver where it counted. I think Carolina's improvement at COR shows she's on the upswing. Her injury is a little worrisome (I think it's back pain issues) but it doesn't seem like it's serious.

    I do think if Carolina pulls a COC and skates badly that the judges with give the nod to Julia (assuming she skates well) but if Carolina skates well, I can't see the judges passing her by and over-scoring Julia the way they did at COR, not with Yu-Na and Mao there as well. Scoring is relative to the competition in the field...so Julia scoring within a point of Yu-Na, Carolina and Mao is a little less likely to happen. Julia will still get a boost but it won't as ridiculous as it was at COR.
    I never said that the GP dictates what will happen in the Olympics - but this year Carolina finished out of the gold medal position in each of her GP events in at least one event due to her own below par skating and she didn't make the GPF whereas last year and the year before it would have been unthinkable. Imo between Yuna, Mao, and Carolina I believe that Kostner is the one the judges will dump at the Olympics in favor of Julia or even Adelina if either of those athletes skate lights out. I think it's political - they want a Russian on the podium in Sochi and will do all they can to get one on it - and I think Carolina judging by the way things have gone this season will be the sacrificial lamb at said Sochi Olympics.

    Quote Originally Posted by MalloryArcher View Post
    Mao Asada didn't win either of her GP assignments in 2009-2010 and she won Olympic silver. Shizuka Awakawa didn't win either of her GP assignments in 2005-2006 and she won Olympic gold. Not winning any GP events in an Olympic season isn't nearly as damning as you make it out to be.

    I know of no woman in the past 20+ years who has won an Olympic medal without winning a Worlds medal of some colour first. I could see Julia making a great debut like Sasha Cohen did in 2002 but I as with Sasha I don't think than will translate to anything higher than 4th.
    The Olympics are in Sochi and at COR Julia got some outrageous scores. I stand by my opinion that this season has shown the judges are ready to dump Carolina for Julia (or maybe Adelina depending how those two skate). The previous GPs with Mao and Shizuka have nothing to do with this - the Olympics are going to be in Russia and imo Kostner is going to get skewered by the judges especially if she so much as steps out of a jump - and this season she's looked vulnerable and is giving the judges every excuse to keep her off of the podium in Sochi.

    I think Julia's marks at COR were telling. The writing is on the wall. Mind you, I hope that I'm proven wrong and that the best three skaters medal on the night.

    Quote Originally Posted by jenaj View Post
    Would that this were so!
    Heh heh heh. I had to throw her in.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Lee View Post
    If Julia wins Europeans, and skates 2 clean programs at Sochi, I predict she'll win gold. (Location will weigh heavily!)
    I can totally see this happening if the stars just right for her - even if Julia DOESN'T win Europeans although that'd make it less likely.

    Quote Originally Posted by coolboogie22 View Post
    I think that Mirai Nagasu have a great chance to win the bronze medal in Sochi.
    It's a dream but how awesome it would be if it were to happen. At this point though I'm just hoping that Mirai makes the Olympic team and has two great skates in Sochi. :D

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