Carolina, Julia, Ashley, Gracie, Akiko, or Adelina - Who will win the bronze medal ? | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Carolina, Julia, Ashley, Gracie, Akiko, or Adelina - Who will win the bronze medal ?

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
If they skate more or less like last season's Worlds Yuna will of course win by a landslide. She won because she was indisputably the best at that event. I suspect Blades might be thinking more of a scenario like 2011 Worlds, where Miki and Yuna were very closely scored as Yuna made some mistakes. Yuna skipped all but Worlds that season. The judges gave the title to Miki.

Miki scored well because she put her in contention by winning all but one competition she entered that season. As a result, her scores build up through the events and by the time she got to Worlds she was marked like a major contender. Mao is doing the same thing this year, so it will be very interesting to see how the two are compared if both skate well in Sochi.
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Uh, she won the GPF the past 2 years. Other than Worlds there have been no bigger events since 2010 (unless you want to count 4CC, which she won last year).

Didn't you sort of answer pangtongfan's question?

Besides the last 2 GPF has been sort of anemic.
 

jaylee

Medalist
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
Neither Yu-Na nor Mao have the ideal resume this quad for an OGM favorite. Yu-Na has two worlds medals, with one being the key penultimate world title, but only senior B international wins otherwise. Mao has 4CCs and two GPF wins, but only one World bronze medal, which, regardless of the reasons why, is rather shocking given that she came into this quad as the reigning OSM, reigning world champion, had every rule change in her favor, and was completely expected to dominate. Carolina Kostner arguably has a better resume than both, as she has the most world medals and a world title, Euros, GPF, GPs, etc, but her technical skills have not stayed competitive and she has the weakest programs of this quad this season.

If they both skate perfectly, I'd expect Mao to come out on top given her advantage in base value, but that's a very tall order. If they both make mistakes, the result depends on what kind of mistakes. Neither can afford to miss one of their money jumps--3A for Mao, 3Lz/3T for Yu-Na. Mao can maybe afford 1 UR and a slight landing error (i.e. two-footed) out of her 3 3As, but she can't really afford to pop them or fall on them. If all else is well, Mao can afford a mistake on the 2A/3T or the 3S and she'd be fine. If Yu-Na executes all else perfectly, she could afford maybe one mistake, say, doubling the salchow as she did in 2009 Worlds where everything else was perfect.

As for the bronze medal, I think there are two tiers of bronze medal contenders, with the upper tier being Carolina, Ashley, and Julia, and the lower tier being Akiko and Adelina. I can't consider Gracie as a bronze medal contender with the season she's had.

But they gave her huge scores at WC last year, they always do. It does not seem to have hurt her much-being absent.

They gave her a huge score in the LP at WC last year, because she skated perfectly. Not because they always do. They didn't in the SP.

Miki scored well because she put her in contention by winning all but one competition she entered that season. As a result, her scores build up through the events and by the time she got to Worlds she was marked like a major contender. Mao is doing the same thing this year, so it will be very interesting to see how the two are compared if both skate well in Sochi.

Yeah, Miki's scores built up even though her performance at Worlds wasn't very good and her programs were terrible. Politics in action.

Mao is obviously in a good position momentum wise this time around, much better than in 2009-2010, but she still has to deliver at the Olympics. Her comfortable win at 4CCs last season set her up perfectly to deliver at Worlds, but she didn't.

If you're a favorite and you don't deliver at the Olympics, then you don't win. See Michelle Kwan, Irina Slutskaya, Sasha Cohen.
 

Sasha'sSpins

Medalist
Joined
Apr 2, 2009
Country
United-States
Oh, I gotta disagree with that.

Comparing Julia's marks across her 3 events this season is all the proof needed when it comes to backing up the assertion that her victory over Carolina was debatable, to put it nicely...personally, I thought it was blatant propping/cheating. :disapp: Carolina was horrible in China but she was better in Russia. Had Julia's PCS been fair or even moderately fair, Carolina would have won gold at COR.

Don't forget the GP season doesn't dictate what will happen at the Olympics. Hardly any of the top finishers in Vancouver had strong GP seasons that year but managed to turn it around and deliver where it counted. I think Carolina's improvement at COR shows she's on the upswing. Her injury is a little worrisome (I think it's back pain issues) but it doesn't seem like it's serious.

I do think if Carolina pulls a COC and skates badly that the judges with give the nod to Julia (assuming she skates well) but if Carolina skates well, I can't see the judges passing her by and over-scoring Julia the way they did at COR, not with Yu-Na and Mao there as well. Scoring is relative to the competition in the field...so Julia scoring within a point of Yu-Na, Carolina and Mao is a little less likely to happen. Julia will still get a boost but it won't as ridiculous as it was at COR.

I never said that the GP dictates what will happen in the Olympics - but this year Carolina finished out of the gold medal position in each of her GP events in at least one event due to her own below par skating and she didn't make the GPF whereas last year and the year before it would have been unthinkable. Imo between Yuna, Mao, and Carolina I believe that Kostner is the one the judges will dump at the Olympics in favor of Julia or even Adelina if either of those athletes skate lights out. I think it's political - they want a Russian on the podium in Sochi and will do all they can to get one on it - and I think Carolina judging by the way things have gone this season will be the sacrificial lamb at said Sochi Olympics.

Mao Asada didn't win either of her GP assignments in 2009-2010 and she won Olympic silver. Shizuka Awakawa didn't win either of her GP assignments in 2005-2006 and she won Olympic gold. Not winning any GP events in an Olympic season isn't nearly as damning as you make it out to be.

I know of no woman in the past 20+ years who has won an Olympic medal without winning a Worlds medal of some colour first. I could see Julia making a great debut like Sasha Cohen did in 2002 but I as with Sasha I don't think than will translate to anything higher than 4th.

The Olympics are in Sochi and at COR Julia got some outrageous scores. I stand by my opinion that this season has shown the judges are ready to dump Carolina for Julia (or maybe Adelina depending how those two skate). The previous GPs with Mao and Shizuka have nothing to do with this - the Olympics are going to be in Russia and imo Kostner is going to get skewered by the judges especially if she so much as steps out of a jump - and this season she's looked vulnerable and is giving the judges every excuse to keep her off of the podium in Sochi.

I think Julia's marks at COR were telling. The writing is on the wall. Mind you, I hope that I'm proven wrong and that the best three skaters medal on the night.

Would that this were so!

Heh heh heh. I had to throw her in. ;)

If Julia wins Europeans, and skates 2 clean programs at Sochi, I predict she'll win gold. (Location will weigh heavily!)

I can totally see this happening if the stars just right for her - even if Julia DOESN'T win Europeans although that'd make it less likely.

I think that Mirai Nagasu have a great chance to win the bronze medal in Sochi.

It's a dream but how awesome it would be if it were to happen. At this point though I'm just hoping that Mirai makes the Olympic team and has two great skates in Sochi. :D
 

Robeye

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
The heck with it. I'm going to crawl all the way out there on a limb. Here is my very, very early prediction in a nutshell:

-Yuna is going to score anywhere between 210-230 total in Sochi. She is going to win OGM. The lower end of the range gives her a cushion of 1 or 2 mistakes. It also corresponds to the lower end of the range for her Big Ticket Wins (2009 Worlds). The upper end represents the very best we have seen her execute in recent years, plus PCS in the SP more in line with her peak LP (230 is approximately the scoring level of her Vancouver OGM winning performances, which represents the upper range of her Big Ticket Wins).

For those already hinting at her demise based on her "rusty" first outing this year at Golden Spin, I will merely point out that it tracks almost identically, in terms of score, with her debut performance at NRW last year. And we know all know how last season ended up. There were quite a few people who should have been in line to eat crow after Fake London, although it seems to me that some chose to scamper off and lay low for a while rather than enjoy that peculiar dish, only to saunter back with a quite admirable nonchalance at a later date to engage in more of the same...:p

Moreover, this imperfect performance by Yuna (204-ish) is already at a scoring level that can contend for Olympic gold, given the demonstrated scoring ranges of the top ladies competitors this year. The season scoring ranges for the GPF ladies are, in all likelihood, already reflective of something close to their performance peaks; Yuna, meanwhile, still has significant room to improve.

-Mao will score anywhere between 190 and 210, and will win the OSM. 210 is a score she has not yet achieved. In her entire career. Her best scoring performances in recent years have been at the Vancouver Olympics (around 205), this year's SA (around 205), NHK this year (around 207), and GPF this year (around 204). Contrary to some declarations in this thread, this season's performances represent, in fact, her peak results, her demonstrated scoring ceiling. 190, give or take, is the level that Mao shows when she is a notch below her peak.

"Regression to the Mean" is a powerful concept in both statistics and in human affairs, and I see no reason to believe that it will not continue to operate at Sochi. To assume that Mao can significantly improve on her scores, beyond 210, is to assume a performance set that has not yet been seen, at this, the tail-end of her career.

-I've said before that IMO the fight for bronze is going to be the battle royale on the ladies side, with my picks for likely contenders being Caro, Julia, and Ashley. But I'm not even wholly confident of this somewhat broad prediction; this is because there are something like a dozen women who could score somewhere between 185-200 if they skate well. The slope of the bell-shaped curve starts to increase sharply at this level.

I hope all the skaters are fit and healthy for Sochi, and we can all see how we did in our saying of sooth. ;)
 

lovintabbs85

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 8, 2013
Love this!

The heck with it. I'm going to crawl all the way out there on a limb. Here is my very, very early prediction in a nutshell:

-Yuna is going to score anywhere between 210-230 total in Sochi. She is going to win OGM. The lower end of the range gives her a cushion of 1 or 2 mistakes. It also corresponds to the lower end of the range for her Big Ticket Wins (2009 Worlds). The upper end represents the very best we have seen her execute in recent years, plus PCS in the SP more in line with her peak LP (230 is approximately the scoring level of her Vancouver OGM winning performances, which represents the upper range of her Big Ticket Wins).

For those already hinting at her demise based on her "rusty" first outing this year at Golden Spin, I will merely point out that it tracks almost identically, in terms of score, with her debut performance at NRW last year. And we know all know how last season ended up. There were quite a few people who should have been in line to eat crow after Fake London, although it seems to me that some chose to scamper off and lay low for a while rather than enjoy that peculiar dish, only to saunter back with a quite admirable nonchalance at a later date to engage in more of the same...:p

Moreover, this imperfect performance by Yuna (204-ish) is already at a scoring level that can contend for Olympic gold, given the demonstrated scoring ranges of the top ladies competitors this year. The season scoring ranges for the GPF ladies are, in all likelihood, already reflective of something close to their performance peaks; Yuna, meanwhile, still has significant room to improve.

-Mao will score anywhere between 190 and 210, and will win the OSM. 210 is a score she has not yet achieved. In her entire career. Her best scoring performances in recent years have been at the Vancouver Olympics (around 205), this year's SA (around 205), NHK this year (around 207), and GPF this year (around 204). Contrary to some declarations in this thread, this season's performances represent, in fact, her peak results, her demonstrated scoring ceiling. 190, give or take, is the level that Mao shows when she is a notch below her peak.

"Regression to the Mean" is a powerful concept in both statistics and in human affairs, and I see no reason to believe that it will not continue to operate at Sochi. To assume that Mao can significantly improve on her scores, beyond 210, is to assume a performance set that has not yet been seen, at this, the tail-end of her career.

-I've said before that IMO the fight for bronze is going to be the battle royale on the ladies side, with my picks for likely contenders being Caro, Julia, and Ashley. But I'm not even wholly confident of this somewhat broad prediction; this is because there are something like a dozen women who could score somewhere between 185-200 if they skate well. The slope of the bell-shaped curve starts to increase sharply at this level.

I hope all the skaters are fit and healthy for Sochi, and we can all see how we did in our saying of sooth. ;)

I completely agree......these are my exact thoughts and you expressed them so well! The battle for bronze is going to be THE FIGHT. Very excited. :)
 

lavender

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Well I hope it's either Carolina, Akiko or Adelina. I like Yu na and of course there is no way she's not winning or making the podium but I'm hoping the podium consist of Mao (winning), Carolina, Akiko or Adelina.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I can't believe I'm the one to say this, instead of you, but Kostner has skated cleanly at Italian nationals last year, albeit not with 7-triple content. At least you've come to your senses about Carolina's potential, and have stopped hoping for her to get a 140+ FS and over 210, given that she hasn't even surpassed 200.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
I would rank them in order of worthiness

1. Carolina. Hello.
2. Akiko. Hello
3. Ashley
4. Adelina
5. Gracie
6. Julia
 

Sochi_2014

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 4, 2013
I would rank them in order of worthiness

1. Carolina. Hello.
2. Akiko. Hello
3. Ashley
4. Adelina
5. Gracie
6. Julia

What makes these ladies more "worthy" than say Yuna or Mao? And secondly, what makes Adelina and gracie more "worthy" than Julia?
 

jaylee

Medalist
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
What makes these ladies more "worthy" than say Yuna or Mao? And secondly, what makes Adelina and gracie more "worthy" than Julia?

I think that's the list for worthiness for the bronze medal--per the subject of this thread.
 

wootie

Match Penalty
Joined
Dec 21, 2013
It will likely be one of the Russian girls...most likely Julia. Adelina can be fabulous but often crumbles under intense pressure (and her flip is out of control). Ditto for Gracie. Akiko is sweet and wonderful but not really a medal contender in terms of her components or her internal mettle. Ashley could possibly end up on the podium but her long program this season is somewhat disappointing (wayyy too much dead space in the middle of the program with virtually no choreography). She'll need Julia to fall on a jump or two to have much of a chance.
 

Sasha'sSpins

Medalist
Joined
Apr 2, 2009
Country
United-States
it will likely be one of the russian girls...most likely julia. Adelina can be fabulous but often crumbles under intense pressure (and her flip is out of control). Ditto for gracie. Akiko is sweet and wonderful but not really a medal contender in terms of her components or her internal mettle. Ashley could possibly end up on the podium but her long program this season is somewhat disappointing (wayyy too much dead space in the middle of the program with virtually no choreography). She'll need julia to fall on a jump or two to have much of a chance.

ita.
 

Eddie Lee

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 19, 2007
Olympics has a life of it's own! It's even more unpredictable with the demise of the figures segment, which tended to level things out a bit (some would say more easily politicized). In ladies' who would have foreseen Michelle's 1998 loss, or Sarah's win/Michelle's loss in 2002? Sasha's 2006 loss was less shocking, and--if memory serves me 2010 went down as most thought it would. I believe 2014 is difficult to forecast: 1). Yuna is in & out of competition during this quad. 2) Is Mao a safe bet for silver with odds of clean 3-axles & full rotations? 3) And finally Location, Location, Location!! Under the circumstances, I will not rule out Julia to take the gold!
 
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